KLCI floats at 1800 range: Bearish

It's been two months since my last posting and I'm still bearish about the Malaysian stock market. Sure we did see the KLCI index peaked again in late April to 1850 but since then has tumbled to slightly below 1800..

I have been reducing my stock holding aggressively and now sit on an investment portfolio of 30% stocks and 70% cash. The liquidity will sure comes in handy should there be a global stocks sell off or a severe and violent market correction..

Previous months and recent trades includes Hap Seng (overvalued at RM4.30), KSL (still like this one at 1.80), Tambun (earnings will be affected), Scientex (still ok at RM6.80 range), Paramount (neutral at RM1.62 with 5c dv in June), Luxchem (overvalued at 1.12), Maybank (positive at RM9.30), Insas (undervalued at 92c), L&G and IGBreit (positive) ...

KLCI dips below 1800. Recent Trades

Sold some shares of KSL at RM2.35 and on announcement of quaterly earning, the shares price plunged close to RM2 before slowly ascending to 2.15
Sold Tambun shares heavily at RM1.93 before it slid to 1.73
Shares price today recovers to 1.87

Accumulate IGB Reit shares at RM1.32 to sell from 1.34 to 1.36
Accumulating shares of YTL Reit

Collects dividend from IGBReit, YTLReit, HSPlant, SwkPlant and Kulim Plantations

KLCI above 1800: Recent Trades

Recent trades:

Sold completely shares of CMMT  Reit  with respectable profit.

A friend CP made about RM 6,000 profit on CMMT. Wow, well done..

IGB Reit dv 3.9c going ex. on 10th Feb

YTL Reit eased 2c to RM 1.03

Traded DIGI between RM6.40 and 6.60

DIGI has a dv of 7.2c going ex. on 25 Feb.

Maybank shares price didn't slide to the price range I anticipated..

KSL making its move again, from RM 2.04 to 2.15

Tambun still at RM 1.94 

KLCI Recovers to 1800. Selling Into Strength

Maybank shares price recovers to RM 9..
Profitable trade as all shares were purchased between 8.40 to 8.83

Recent trades:
Sold Insas at 92 sen (plunge to 84 sen today after going ex.).. to wait and see if it goes to 80c/76c range
Sold L&G.. I think it may do a 58 sen hit..
Sold ThongGuan Industry ...

Trading Tambun shares between RM1.50 and 1.80 with KSL (after 1:1 bonus issues) ranging from RM1.80 to 2.10 ... Love the big moves they make...

Switching from telcos to REITS has pay off..
CMMT is currently traded at RM1.56 (accumulated 1.39 to 1.43) with a 4c dv by month end

Insas. CMMT. KSL. HapSeng. YTLReit

If there's a stock I would  invest a lot of money in, it would have to be Insas (nta 180, Qeps 8.9/ 6.2/ 4.6/ 4.9c)
Accumulating from 98 sen, RM1.00 and RM1.05
The movement 86/88c -> 96/98c -> 106/108c -> 116/118c.???
I think it's gonna move to RM1.19 strong resistance (former strong support).

Why the dip in CMMT stock price to RM1.43.?
CMMT (nta 123, Qeps 6.5/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 5.9/ 2.0) pays 4.5 and 4.53c as dividends
Therefore 9.03/143 = > 6.3 % dy

KSL shares price has surged to RM4.70 while HapSeng keeps going up to almost RM4.50
Lets see if HapSeng will increase their half yearly dividend from 10 sen ...
Luxchem (nta115, Qeps 3.8/ 3.3/ 4.6/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 4.6) shares price rose to RM1.80 on proposal of bonus shares issue
YTLReit in news on improving earnings. Anyone who misses out on buying other REITS can still accumulate this one as YTLReit pays 6.9 sen on current price of RM1.03 (dy = 6.7%)

Stock market still depressed.

Heavy selling for the whole week at local stock market.
Oil & gas, plantation and property sector share prices plunging more than 20% from recent high..
Looks like stocks is entering a bear market with everybody in a panic mode selling their holdings and asking question later..

KSL rose as high as 4.97 last month and since then had slid to about 4.20 and is traded currently at 3.80
Daiman has dropped from 3.70 and currently trades at 3.00 mark
Tambun share price tumbled from 2.60 to 2.06
PJ Dev slid from high of 2.20 to 1.60 (more than 30%)
Paramount dropped from 1.60 to 1.43
TA shares price tumbled from 93 to 76 sen
Blue chips Maxis, DIGI and HapSeng seem to be holding well at 6.50, 5.84 and 4.00 respectively
Liquidate more than RM500k of stocks for last one month..
And the selling has not subsided with KLCI down by 1% at 1768 : 1001 losers dominating 64 gainers in the local KLSE market.....      Happy trading...

Recent Trades:

Sold shares in WCT, Crescendo, MKH, KPS and Efficient..

Sold completely all YTLP and waiting for another plunge..

Let's watch and see if KPS (nta 222, Qeps 4.9/ 46/ -2.7/ 4.7) ever fall back to RM1.55 range

Decent gain from recent trades but not an awful lot.

Bought shares in KSL, HapSeng, IGB Reit, SunReit, PavReit and Malton..

Missed taking  position in Pantech

The following shares price rises on positive news of its landbanks and its steady recurring income:

Daiman rises from RM3.50 to RM3.80 (go read The Daily Edge's article on 17th June)

KSL up from RM2.17 to RM2.28 (ref. The Edge's article on KSL dd 23rd June). Should accumulate more of KSL shares..

Tambun moves from RM2.08 to RM2.18 today.

Scientex (nta 310, Qeps 13.7/ 13.8/ 13.3/ 15.3/16.4) declares a dv of 8c going ex. 17th July

It should cross the RM6.00 resistance easily when its second dividend is announced..

HapSeng continues its ascent from RM3.26 to RM3.56 over a two weeks period

It has a dv of 10c going ex 3rd July.. 

If it can keep up the half yearly dv of 10c, share price could hit RM4

My position in Reits has made some decent gain with SunReit giving the best return at RM1.45

Waiting for PavReit to catch up from RM1.37

IGB Reit is a good buy at this range of RM1.22

KLCI supported at 1803. Earning season again in Nov

KLCI slid but remain supported at 1803.
Stock companies are expected to release their quarterly earnings in the next week or two and will provide fresh catalyst for shares price movement.. A game of anticipation is on the way....

Recent profitable trades : -
Daiman, E&O, HapSeng, KSL, Luxchem,
Maxis, Pantech, Paramon, PJ Dev, Scientex, Supermax,
TA, TDM, YTLPwb
Likes Daiman, HapSeng. KSL, Luxchem, PJDev, TA

Recent unprofitable trades : -
IGBReits, Ivory, Johotin, MKLand, Tropicana

My watchlist : -
TA, TAGB, Insas, YTLPwb

Profitable Trading Ideas : Short term

A few counters to trade for profits:
1) Johotin
2) Tomypak
3) Luxchem
4) Latexx

Commodities headed for violent correction again ..?

Gold plunges big time- from USD 1638 to 1580, a drop of 3.7 percent on renewed fears of Euro crises ( Greece political uncertainty, Spanish banks frailty, France new president fight against austerity) gripped investors ...This is bad news for gold investors as gold broke the uptrend line at 1620 ... And it could get even cheaper as gold struggles to find support ... < Er, good news for those aiming to buy gold at super low price with our strong Ringgit.  >

Commodity currency Aussie dollar continues to dive towards parity with the US dollar after federal government posted a budget surplus, signalling further rates cut may be on the table. Just a week ago RBA have knife cash/interest rate by 0.5 percent to 3.7           < Good for those funding kids studying  in Australia.  >

CRB over one year period showing the index falling from last year July highest to October lowest. Index seen sliding from recent high in March to current low ... Game over for commodities and its currencies ..? Are these the things to come for the Malaysian stocks market, cash interest rate cuts and its currency Ringgit .? I would have to say, YES, in the right sense of mind ...

Bank Of America. Shares price double up.

Share price of BAC continue to rise after the release of US banks' stress test last Thursday. It was hovering at USD 5 last November and got a lot of attention from investors & traders alike who started accumulation from December...
It was selling for USD 8 last week before the release of the bank stress test result and thereafter rose to close at abt USD 9.80
Congratulations to those who bought in early and held todate. Happy investing ...

What's everyone eyeing these days..?

Here's a 5 year time chart of HSBC (0005. HK) .
Shares price hovering at HK$ 57

Fair value changes with perception volatility

Fair value and PER of share prices of companies changes very quickly in differing market conditions so I would not utilise it as the only tool for buying a company stock. Nevertheless it's still pretty good indicator of whether the company shares you hold in your portfolio has become overpriced wrt. its earnings, market outlook/ projections and regional peers..

Meanwhile a look at some of the companies mentioned by friends....
QL Reso ( nta 92, Q/Q 3.9/ 3.3 sen ). It's overpriced, trading at RM 2.60 and would be one of the stocks I'll go short on. Fair value RM 1.60 to 1.80
Supermax (nta 212, Q/Q 11/10/ 7/ 6 sen). Trading close to PE 11 at RM 2.80, rebounding from RM 2.30 range last week. Worth a nibble below RM 2, screaming buy at RM 1.20 w/ PE 5
HS Plant (nta 230, QQ 5/ 7/ 7/ 9 sen ) Trading at RM 2.40, it recovers everytime it plunges to RM 2 level... This is one company worth looking at when share price plunges below RM 2. Whack hard at RM 1.50 range...

Average investors cashing out

In a matter of 10 days, two friends CPC and ALE liquidated their stock holdings and held on to sweet old cash. It was simply sentiment-driven, you know, the momentum driven action of "sell and ask question" later. There was a huge element of fear of losing profits (or losing more), greed of sell now/ buy at better prices later and some crazed feeling in between all these.

I asked a couple of people at the investment/brokerage houses and most said they were reducing their exposure to the equities in a substantial manner. Most were comfortable taking their money off the market. With all the volatility spanning the global financial market and uncertainty of direction of the local bourse, I guess it was simply too stressful on the brain and taxing on anyone's physique to stock pick and remain calm.

What's the best thing to do now..? That's the question everyone asking.. buy precious metals or bonds or stay in cash..? Well, do something that will assure you a good night rest and sleep.. by this I mean, lean towards cash position till month ends..

In your waiting for the dust to settle, you may opt to dabble in currency option swap which can potentially earns you weekly gain, annualized at 6 to 11 %... Happy investing.

World market plunges again

AUD/MYR plunges to multi-weeks low of 3.07 with more than 3 % loss from 3.16 within 24 hours in the midst of sell-off in Aussie and in stocks. The AUD also dipped below parity with USD, falling to as low as 97.2 US cents.

KLCI suffered another blow on heavy selling across the board with the index closing at 1388 ( - 31 points, - 2.2 %): there were 801 losers and 85 gainers. I'm watching the plantation sector to buy later at steep discounts... Nothing else really interest me, well maybe I'll day-trade Boustead, Maybank, GenM, QL, MPHB, IJML, MahSing, etc if opportunities avail...

With FTSE, DAX and CAC registering losses of approx 5 %, I guess tomorrow will be a red ocean day again... Will you be courageous enough to trade in times like these..?

KLCI under intense pressure again

Most of the guys I asked today said that they're going to sell, sell, sell despite holding onto defensive blue-chip companies stocks. This seeem to be the prevalent sentiment that's striking terror in the hearts of even those who a fortnight ago were not even agitated by the Euro crisis.
So it seems like even the brave hearted are now striken by fear of losing their gains.

For some who are considering into buying into Tenaga shares (nta 532, QQ 9/ 16/ 14/ -8 sen), I say, be cautious until there is some glimpse that electricity tariff gets another hike. With the cost of fuel (coal and gas) on the high side, this will erode the financial bottom line further.

Instead why not buy TM shares at below RM 4..? Its earning (QQ 12/ 11/ 5/ 4 sen ) is still not that fabulous but there's the growth story of the HSBB (high speed broadband) which is partially paid/subsidised by the Gov't.. With a guaranteed minimum of 13 sen (9.8 sen net) dividend paid out every six months, this is one to have as your core investment.
Punt and trade on this one below RM 4 if ever it plunges... Happy investing...

KLCI bleeds 70 points

809- another day of bleeding for KLCI following DJIA & S&P plunge of approx 6 %.
I guess many will sell their portfolio into huge losses while some will make their entry to take a position. I think at the end of the day or week, many will make their entry after the massive selling has subsided...

Did a day trade on A.T.M.= Axiata, Telekom, Maxis.
Queue for Maybank and other blue chip counters.

Red Ocean. KLCI dives > 40 points

8th Aug. 2011. Some took the opportunity to buy into market when the index plunges sharply in the mid morning. Losers lead gainers by more than 1,060 to 45 at one point and there were so many counters registering huge loses to pick from. I guess you could call this "Red Ocean" strategic fishing, ha ha. You could be rewarded if you timed the market well.

Well, I'm not so smart: I only gain from the intra-day trades on TM and GenM.
Accumulated some other blue-chip counters. Wish I had bought into Maxis but then again, there were so many to pick at.. Next round then.....
Laggard stocks I like : Bjtoto, KJC, Maxis, Tambun

How to trade safely in this market

Many blue chips counter are trading in a narrow band so it seems like we'll have to trade between these and be contented with a few percentage of gain within a week or two.
GenM and Maybank seems to be trading in the ranges of RM 3.5 to 3.7 and 8.7 to 9.0 respectively for the moment and if well traded, could yield a potential of 3 %. Not much but 3 % within a fortnight is much better than the same in a yearly FD. I think there's limited downside for these two counters. TM is another safe bet ranging from RM 3.85

There's many other counters you can trade for short term gain. I'm pretty sure you have your favourites to scalp for a profit. Just ensure you pick counters you're familiar with its price action, having good fundamentals (decent earnings) and newsflow.
I think Latexx and Supermax deserve a relook with commodities prices trending down. The only snag is the income that's priced in USD ( 1: 3 MYR ). Happy trading ..!

HapSeng Cons. Kian Joo.

Today Hap Seng Cons. saw its share price surge about 7 % to close at RM 5.56 despite the KLCI losing abt 7 points to close at 1552... Sold part of HSC shares that was accumulated at RM 5.20 range. Let's see if HSC price action can be sustained up to end of week, where dividend of 20.5 sen will go ex.

Trade for month of May: sold all of BJ Corp and Benalec with little gain.
Will swap into my choice of dividend counters, which I think will mitigate/avoid major monetary losses, if/when market reverses.
Bought Kian Joo shares which I think has value inspite of the litigation issue between KJC and Can One. Looking purely at just dividend payout, it should be in the RM 2.60 range, alongside HS Plant. Buy at your own risk though :)) as market is poised for a correction... Happy investing..!