Maybank. Johotin, Luxchem. Tomypak. Latexx

Some of the shares counters worth accumulating:

Maybank (nta 466, QQ 15.5/ 17.2/ 17.6/ 18.6sen ) Qeps improved slightly.
Announces Dv 32 sen going e. 20th Sept. Annual dv (32+36) / 915 = 7.4 % dv yield ..!

JohoTin (nta 157, QQ 3/ 0.3/ 10.2/ 5.2/ 7.5 sen) Qeps up.
Proposed rights issue with warrants

LuxChem (nta 100, QQ 4.6/ 4.3/ 3.9/ 4.9/ 4.4sen ) Qeps flat.
Annual Dv 9c/ price 126 = 7.1 % dv yield

TomyPak (nta 088, QQ 2.5/ 3.1/ 2.1/ 3.2 sen)
Annual dv 6.5c / price 100 = 6.5 % dv yield

Latexx (nta 123, QQ 7.9/ 5.2/ 0.4/ 3.7 sen)
Glovemaker with the lowest PE

Profitable Trading Ideas : Short term

A few counters to trade for profits:
1) Johotin
2) Tomypak
3) Luxchem
4) Latexx

Is it time to cash out ..?

Ringgit has strengthen against USD from 3.60 in the last 3 - 5 years to the current 3.06 as shown in the first chart.
Manufacturers who export/sell their goods in US dollars, repatriate their profits to Malaysia will get less Ringgit now and these are reflected in their earnings. So a weak dollar is negative for exporters.


For foreign investor holding US dollars three years ago when Ringgit was weak and Malaysian equities were cheap, it was the near perfect time to ploughed your money in.
Now if you invert the chart, you would see it as a typical pattern of most stock market charts, forming a double top. Is this the end of the super bull run or will it pull back violently before the next upleg ..?

In the face of uncertainty of global market, would you pull your money out from Malaysia now that your returns from equities would easily have doubled and your forex gain 20 % ..?
Or coupled with the impending general election which is definitely going to cause a lot of volatility and opportunities in the local stock market, would you now liquidate and wait on the sidelines ..?

Latexx. Supermax. Kossan. Hartalega

Latexx (nta 120, Q/Q 8/ 5/ 6/ 8 sen) Fv = RM2.70 if we assume PER 10. Now trading at RM 1.95 on PE of 7
Supermax (nta 221, Q/Q 11/ 10/ 7/ 7/ 9 sen ) Fv = RM3.30 on PER 10. Now trading at RM3.79 with PE 12, which is relatively expensive.
Kossan (nta 150, Q/Q 9/ 9/ 7/ 7 sen) Fv = RM3.20 on PER 10. Now trading at RM2.90 below PE 10
Hartalega (nta 152, Q/Q 13/ 13/ 14/ 15/ 13 sen) Fv = RM5.50 on PER 10. Now trading at RM5.50

Fair value changes with perception volatility

Fair value and PER of share prices of companies changes very quickly in differing market conditions so I would not utilise it as the only tool for buying a company stock. Nevertheless it's still pretty good indicator of whether the company shares you hold in your portfolio has become overpriced wrt. its earnings, market outlook/ projections and regional peers..

Meanwhile a look at some of the companies mentioned by friends....
QL Reso ( nta 92, Q/Q 3.9/ 3.3 sen ). It's overpriced, trading at RM 2.60 and would be one of the stocks I'll go short on. Fair value RM 1.60 to 1.80
Supermax (nta 212, Q/Q 11/10/ 7/ 6 sen). Trading close to PE 11 at RM 2.80, rebounding from RM 2.30 range last week. Worth a nibble below RM 2, screaming buy at RM 1.20 w/ PE 5
HS Plant (nta 230, QQ 5/ 7/ 7/ 9 sen ) Trading at RM 2.40, it recovers everytime it plunges to RM 2 level... This is one company worth looking at when share price plunges below RM 2. Whack hard at RM 1.50 range...

How to trade safely in this market

Many blue chips counter are trading in a narrow band so it seems like we'll have to trade between these and be contented with a few percentage of gain within a week or two.
GenM and Maybank seems to be trading in the ranges of RM 3.5 to 3.7 and 8.7 to 9.0 respectively for the moment and if well traded, could yield a potential of 3 %. Not much but 3 % within a fortnight is much better than the same in a yearly FD. I think there's limited downside for these two counters. TM is another safe bet ranging from RM 3.85

There's many other counters you can trade for short term gain. I'm pretty sure you have your favourites to scalp for a profit. Just ensure you pick counters you're familiar with its price action, having good fundamentals (decent earnings) and newsflow.
I think Latexx and Supermax deserve a relook with commodities prices trending down. The only snag is the income that's priced in USD ( 1: 3 MYR ). Happy trading ..!

Supermax. Hartalega. HapSeng. IGB. IOI. Hunza

--Supermax latest Qeps 9.6sen (nta 208, Q/Qeps 16/ 19/ 14/ 11/ 9.6sen) Fv= RM4.00 Now trading at RM4.25 w/ PE 11... Dv 2.5 sen ex. 1st Mar
--Hartalega latest Qeps 13.5sen (nta 126, Q/Qeps 19/ 17/ 13/13.5sen) Fv=RM5.20 Now trading at RM5.65 w/ PE 11... Dv 5 sen ex. 23rd Feb
--Hap Seng Cons latest Qeps 18.3sen (nta 459, Q/Q 7/ 23/ 8/ 18.3sen) Fv=RM5.70 Now trading at RM6.80 w/ PE 12... Proposed Dv 22 sen
--HapSeng Plant latest Qeps 7sen (nta 220, Q/Q 4/ 5/ 5/ 7sen) Fv=RM2.20 Now trading at RM3.18 w/ PE 14... Proposed Dv 7 sen
--IGB latest Qeps 3.6sen (nta 208, Q/Qeps 2/ 2/ 3/ 3/ 3.6 sen) Fv= RM1.20 Now trading abt RM2.50
--IOI latest Qeps 8.1sen (nta 173, Q/Q 8/ 8/ 8/ 8/ 8.1 sen) Fv= RM3.20 Now trading RM5.70 w/ PE 18.... Dv 8 sen ex.15th March... Sold my shares today
--Hunza latest Qeps 5.3sen (nta 237, Q/Q 7/ 7/ 18/ 5.3 sen) Fv=RM2.40 Now trading RM1.65

Earnings Drop: Top Glove

Top Glove just released their quarterly earning
Net profit approx. RM 43 million, a 30% decline compared to their previous RM 64 million
Therefore earning per share, Qeps = RM 43m/ 618m shares issued = RM 0.073 or 7.3 sen
My fair value Fv = 7.3 x 4 x 10 = RM 2.92. So at RM 5.70, it's expensive for my liking.

Speculating on Supermax similar decline of 30% net profit
Net profit = 70% x last quarter RM 45 million = RM 32 m
Q eps = RM 32m/ 339 m shares = RM 0.095 or 9.5 sen
My fair value Fv = 9.5 x 4 x 10 = RM 3.80
I'll be comfortable to buy around RM3.30 when it slides from the current RM 4.26

Glovemakers Earnings Review

Top Gloves (Q/Q/latest Qeps 22/23/ latest 21 sen, nta RM 3.37) Earnings Q/Q flat over 3 quarters. Fair value Fv with annualised PER 10 = 21 x 4 x 10 = RM8.40
Supermax (Q/Q/ latest Qeps 15/16/ 19 sen, nta RM2.33) Earnings up but is it sustainable..?. Fv = 7.60 Revised Fv =7.60/1.25 = RM6.10 adjusted after 25% bonus issue.
Kossan (Q/Q/ latest Qeps 9/15/ 19sen, nta RM2.33) Earnings up. Fv =RM 7.60
Latexx (Q/Q/latest Qeps 7/9/ 10.5 sen, nta RM0.99) Earnings up. Fv = RM 4.20
Adventa (Q/Q/latest Qeps 3.7/6.4/ 4.6 sen, nta RM 1.36) Earnings decline. Fv = RM 1.90
Current prices: Top Gloves RM13.00 Supermax RM5.90 Kossan RM7.60 Latexx RM3.60 Adventa RM3.20

In News: Latexx. SSteel. HunzPty.DiGi

LATEXX PARTNERS BHD more than doubled its net profit to RM20.72 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010 (1QFY10) from RM9.14 million a year earlier on the back of capacity expansion, aggressive marketing strategy and overall cost savings.Revenue surged 79.4% to RM126.17 million from RM70.32 million, while earnings per share rose to 10.52 sen from 4.7 sen. It declared a tax exempt interim dividend of 2.5 sen per share.

SOUTHERN STEEL BHD posted a net profit of RM34.48 million in its first quarter ended March 31, 2010, versus a net loss of RM65.48 million a year earlier on the back of a higher revenue in line with the economic recovery.Revenue surged 59.74% to RM628.74 million from RM393.6 million, while pre-tax profit totaled RM37.1 million versus a loss of RM78.5 million a year earlier. Basic earnings per share stood at 8.2 sen, versus a loss per share of 15.6 sen previously.

Penang-based Hunza Properties Bhd’s net profit surged 95.26% to RM11.29mil for the quarter ended March 31, 2010 compared with the previous corresponding period on higher property sales and contributions from the Gurney Paragon project.
The company said in an announcement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday that revenue for the quarter jumped 214% to RM58.52mil.

DIGI.COM BHD net profit for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010 rose to RM278.26 million from RM275.44 million a year ago, on the back of a 6% increase in revenue to RM1.3 billion. The company had on Tuesday, May 4 also declared a first interim dividend payout of 35 sen per ordinary share of 10 sen each, payable on June 18, 2010. Earnings per share rose to 35.80 sen from 35.40 sen a year earlier, while net assets per share was RM1.77.

My Favorite Glovemaker

Supermax (Q eps 16.4 sen, nta RM 2.08). Simple Fv = 16.4 x 4 x 10 = RM 6.56: Today's price at RM7.10, approx PER 10.8 <*** top value ***>

Latexx (Q eps 8.8 sen, nta RM 0.87). Simple Fv = RM 3.52: Today price at RM 4.00, approx PER 11.3

Kossan (Q eps 15 sen, nta RM 2.23). Simple Fv = RM 6.00: Today's price at RM 8.00, approx PER 13.3

Top Glove (Q eps 23.5 sen, nta RM 3.02). Simple Fv = RM 9.40 : Today's price at RM13.60, approx PER 14.5