Remember the LORD for it is he who gives you the ability to produce wealth and so confirms his covenant... Deut. 8:18

Friday, April 27, 2012

AUD & Gold breakout

AUD/USD chart D1.
AUD broke out from a descending channel. 
Looks like it's forming an ascending channel.
Set to test 1.048 and 1.052
AUD/USD chart H4.
Aud touched 1.044
But hold your horses, Aud may dive if RBA meets on Tuesday 1st May (Malaysian time 12.30pm) to cut its cash/interest rate.

Gold similarly broke out from a descending channel on Friday slower-than-expected US growth data and as traders expected another round of QE.
Gold will likely test 1670 and 1680 levels ..

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Aud and Gold regained intraday loss

Aussie dollar plunged from 1.032 to a low of 1.025 US dollar at Tuesday morning.
By evening it has rebounded  to 1.032 so I closed some position and took profit at 1.0315
Immediate resistance 1.035
Xau dived from 1643 to 1623 at lower band of a descending channel during day session but has since regained its position.
Immediate resistance 1658, 1665

TH Plantation

TH Plant just released their Q eps of approx. 2.5 sen, down 40 % compared with last year's Q eps of 4.4 sen
TH Plant (nta 126, QQ 4.4/ 6.4/ 6.5/ 7.4/ 2.5 sen)
Last two days, I read briefly that they have disposed their plantation (whole or part ..?) and is investing in a property in UK. Is this the reason for their decline in earnings..?

Why are Malaysian GLC, EPF and now TH stepping up their buying of  real estates overseas..?
Mmm, I wonder ...

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Gold consolidates before next move. Aussie down.

 Gold consolidates at USD 1640 level, eyeing FOMC meeting on Weds 25th April to discuss economic & monetary projections..
Will gold breakout to test its recent high or breakdown ..?
Resistances at 1658, 1665, 1686
Supports at 1634, 1625, 1610
Aussie down on weak PPI (producer price index):  buys 103.3 US cents
Resistances at 1.040 , 1.044 , 1.048
Supports at 1.031 , 1.029 , 1.026
Buy below 1.030

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Is it time to cash out ..?

Ringgit has strengthen against USD from 3.60 in the last 3 - 5 years to the current 3.06 as shown in the first chart.
Manufacturers who export/sell their goods in US dollars, repatriate their profits to Malaysia will get less Ringgit now and these are reflected in their earnings. So a weak dollar is negative for exporters.

For foreign investor holding US dollars three years ago when Ringgit was weak and Malaysian equities were cheap, it was the near perfect time to ploughed your money in.
Now if you invert the chart, you would see it as a typical pattern of most stock market charts, forming a double top. Is this the end of the super bull run or will it pull back violently before the next upleg ..?

In the face of uncertainty of global market, would you pull your money out from Malaysia now that your returns from equities would easily have doubled and your forex gain 20 % ..?
Or coupled with the impending general election which is definitely going to cause a lot of volatility and opportunities in the local stock market, would you now liquidate and wait on the sidelines ..?

BAC. MS. JPM. Banking stocks down

US banking stocks taking a dive ...
Worries about US slow economic recovery, EU Spanish bond sales and China slower growth spooked global equities end commodities.

Three charts showing US financial stocks Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan share prices descending over the week ...

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Aussie reverses its trend ..?

Aussie broke out of its downtrend channel, reached 1.045 US dollar this morning but since then has slid to 1.039
Look at the well-defined formation on a H4 chart ...

Monday, April 9, 2012

Gold and Aussie recovers.

Gold recovers as last week US jobs data fell short of expectation, raising speculation that a QE is not off the table yet ...
Commodity currency Aussie dollar was up at 103.5 US cents this morning ...

A short review for those holding gold .. Daily price of gold has not plunge below the critical support of USD 1600 which is on the long term uptrend line ...

On H4 chart, prices have recovered from recent low of USD 1612 and currently hovering at 1652. It is approaching a resistance at 1665 on a short-term downtrend line. Traders will be watching if it breaks out ..

BHP Billiton.

Commodity stock on a down trend.
BHP mining giant 1 year chart showing shares price sliding to USD69, testing January low of USD 64


Sime ( nta 413, QQ 14/ 22/ 18/ 18 sen ) Eps 72. Trading at RM 9.80 w/ PE 13.6
IOI ( nta 189, QQ 10/ 9/ 4/ 9 sen ) Eps 32. Trading at RM 5.30 w/ PE 14.3

IJMP ( nta 174, QQ 3/ 6/ 6/ 7 sen ) Eps 22. Trading at RM 3.30 w/ PE 15
HSP ( nta 235, QQ 7/ 9/ 8/ 6 sen ) Eps 30. Trading at RM 3.03 w/ PE 10

THP ( nta 123, QQ 4/ 7/ 7/ 7 sen ) Eps 25. Trading at RM 2.80 w/ PE 11.2
TDM ( nta 493, QQ 13/ 14/ 22/ 19 sen) Eps 67. Trading at RM 4.80 w/ PE 7

TSH Plantation.

The Edge did an article on TSH and this is what I gathered:
TSH has landbanks totalling 98,453 ha, out of which 95.5 5 % ( 94,003 ha ) is in Indonesia and 4,450 ha is in Sabah.
37 % (ie., 36,400 ha ) of the landbanks in Indonesia has been planted with 30 % ( ie., 10,920 ha ) reaching maturity, leaving 70 % of the trees yet to reach maturity.
Total planted areas = approx. 41,000 ha
As ending 2011, TSH reported trees in the landbanks as 47 % immature ( < 4 years ), 26 % young mature ( 4 to 6 years ), 15 % mature prime 1 ( 7 to 15 years ), 12 % mature prime 2 ( 16 to 25 years )
TSH has 22.3 % share in Innoprise Plantation which has 12,619 ha plantation land in Sabah and is 51 % owned by Yayasan Sabah.

TSH is projecting strong growth in the near future:
2008 FFB = 198,190 mt ( incl. Indonesian 66,290 mt )
2011 FFB = 399,600 mt ( incl. Indonesian 259,500 mt , CAGR 52%)
2012 prediction FFB = 485,100 mt. 2013 prediction FFB = 608,800 mt. 2014 prediction 723,800 mt

TSH did a bonus issue in Dec 2011 and adjusting for that (nta 104, Q/Q 2.9/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 3.2).
It is now trading at RM 2.34 with P/E 16 which is on the high range

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Global equities retreat further after Fed minutes

Global equites and commodities fell sharply after release of FOMC minutes suggest that no further easing is in the pipeline.

Commodity currency Aud and precious metal gold continues to
slide while USD rose against all majors.
Aud was seen at 1.025 USD within a descending channel.
Gold plunges to 1615 USD ...

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Ringgit strengthens against USD and Aussie

3 months chart showing Usd weakening against Myr from peak of 3.15 to 2.99 in early March but now gradually recovering to 3.05
Minutes of FOMC due release on 3rd April will determine direction of USD ...

Aud continues to slide against Myr from 3.18 to 3.16
3 months chart showing Aud peaks @ 3.29 then tumbles to current level