I like Maybank at this price; RM8.90

Maybank (nta 546, Qeps 20/ 19.6/ 18.1/ 17.5/ 17.6 sen) currently hovering at RM8.90

Maybank previous dividends of  55 sen (31c + 24c) if it persists will offers a dv yield of 6.2 %

Hmmm, quite decent for a bluechip counter..

Sold all my telcos shares in Maxis and DIGI (which pays between dv yield of 4.3 to 4.8 %) to accumulate Maybank..

Insas (nta 180, Qeps 8.9/ 6.2/ 4.6/ 4.9 sen) did surge to RM1.20 strong resistance level before diving on announcement of its recent Qeps of 3.6 sen

Sold most shares above RM1.15

Currently trading at 94 sen, worth nibbling between the range of 90 sen to 86 sen strong support...

L&G (nta 57, Qeps 3.9/ 4.0/ 3.2/ 4.5/ 7.9 sen) looks like a good counter to trade at 50 sen level

Recent trades:

Sold all of my shares in TM, Maxis and DIGI

Sold two-thirds of shares in Tambun above RM2.14 , buying back on weakness in shares price currently trading at RM1.80

Sold some shares in HapSeng, KSL, Paramon, PJ Dev, ThongGuan Ind., L&G, PavReit, IGBReit,

What To Buy (Amongst Others) If Our Market Plunges...

Made some profit on past weeks trading GenM, Maybank, SPSetia, HapSeng.. Missed out on some active counters cos' I was super busy for past months studying some other investment instruments..
Still, stocks remain my passion due to its liquidity and trading ease..

Some of the counters that I was lookin at in the previous weeks:
MPHB (239, 5.9/ 9.4/ 5.2/ 3.5) Paid a 5c dv
HapSeng (161, 3.9/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8) Paid a 6c dv
HSPlant (236, 5.4/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 3.7) Paid a 5c dv
TomyPak (095, 3.2/ 5/ 3.9/ 3.6) Paid a 2c dv
Luxchem (105, 4.9/ 4.4/ 3.1/ 4.5) Dv of 5c going ex on 29th May

YTL (125, 3.9/ 2.9/ 4/ 2.5)
PJDev (203, 2.8/ 2.3/ 3.5/ 1.5)
SPSetia (201, 4/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 6.3) Paid a 9c dv
MahSing (141, 4.9/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 6.6)
UOADev (165, 12/ 3/ 9/ 6.8/5.6) Paid a 12c dv
E&O (122, 3.8/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 2.4)
Dijaya (260, 2.7/ 8.4/ 12.6/ 8.3)
Ivory (082, 1.9/ 7.2/ 0.4/ 0)
Tambun (072, 4.1/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.6) Paid 3.3c dv
B'stead (450, 18.6/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 7.5/ 14) Paid a 7.5c dv

Maxis (097, 12/ 7.6/ 6.2/ 5.9/ 5) Paid a 8c dv last mth. Another 8c ex. 14th May
DIGI (03, 4/ 4/ 4/ 3.2) Paid a 2.5c dv
TM (183, 16.7/ 7/ 9.7/ 8.4/ 10.2) Expecting a dv of 12.2c
GenM (232, 4.8/ 8.8/ 3.4/ 7.9) Expecting a dv of 5c
Maybank (500/ 17.6/ 18.6/ 19.1/ 17.3) Expecting a dv of 33c

TDM (503, 7.5/ 3.9/ 16.2/ 14) making large move today, from RM4.2 to RM4.50
Declaring a 22c dv with proposed bonus issue 1:5 and shares split division of 1 into 5 shares of 20sens each.

 

Maybank. Johotin, Luxchem. Tomypak. Latexx

Some of the shares counters worth accumulating:

Maybank (nta 466, QQ 15.5/ 17.2/ 17.6/ 18.6sen ) Qeps improved slightly.
Announces Dv 32 sen going e. 20th Sept. Annual dv (32+36) / 915 = 7.4 % dv yield ..!

JohoTin (nta 157, QQ 3/ 0.3/ 10.2/ 5.2/ 7.5 sen) Qeps up.
Proposed rights issue with warrants

LuxChem (nta 100, QQ 4.6/ 4.3/ 3.9/ 4.9/ 4.4sen ) Qeps flat.
Annual Dv 9c/ price 126 = 7.1 % dv yield

TomyPak (nta 088, QQ 2.5/ 3.1/ 2.1/ 3.2 sen)
Annual dv 6.5c / price 100 = 6.5 % dv yield

Latexx (nta 123, QQ 7.9/ 5.2/ 0.4/ 3.7 sen)
Glovemaker with the lowest PE

Commodities headed for violent correction again ..?

Gold plunges big time- from USD 1638 to 1580, a drop of 3.7 percent on renewed fears of Euro crises ( Greece political uncertainty, Spanish banks frailty, France new president fight against austerity) gripped investors ...This is bad news for gold investors as gold broke the uptrend line at 1620 ... And it could get even cheaper as gold struggles to find support ... < Er, good news for those aiming to buy gold at super low price with our strong Ringgit.  >

Commodity currency Aussie dollar continues to dive towards parity with the US dollar after federal government posted a budget surplus, signalling further rates cut may be on the table. Just a week ago RBA have knife cash/interest rate by 0.5 percent to 3.7           < Good for those funding kids studying  in Australia.  >

CRB over one year period showing the index falling from last year July highest to October lowest. Index seen sliding from recent high in March to current low ... Game over for commodities and its currencies ..? Are these the things to come for the Malaysian stocks market, cash interest rate cuts and its currency Ringgit .? I would have to say, YES, in the right sense of mind ...

BAC. MS. JPM. Banking stocks down

US banking stocks taking a dive ...
Worries about US slow economic recovery, EU Spanish bond sales and China slower growth spooked global equities end commodities.

Three charts showing US financial stocks Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan share prices descending over the week ...

Bank Of America. Shares price double up.

Share price of BAC continue to rise after the release of US banks' stress test last Thursday. It was hovering at USD 5 last November and got a lot of attention from investors & traders alike who started accumulation from December...
It was selling for USD 8 last week before the release of the bank stress test result and thereafter rose to close at abt USD 9.80
Congratulations to those who bought in early and held todate. Happy investing ...

China stocks falling

2 year chart of Shanghai Stocks CI seen struggling to keep afloat and breaking down to a two year low ... Short commodities firms that sell to China ...

New York: Ratings firm Fitch downgraded six major global banks on Thursday, citing increased challenges in the financial markets
Fitch lowered the long-term ratings on Bank of America and Goldman Sachs in the United States, British bank Barclays, French bank BNP Paribas, German bank Deutsche Bank and Swiss bank Credit Suisse.

Euro News.

Germany's Angela Merkel wants tighter fiscal integration in Euro zone with tougher budget and dismissed possibility of massive money printing by ECB.
Issuance of common euro zone bonds as a crisis solution would breach German constitution and is thus not possible. Instead, she would like ECB to continue buying bonds of troubled euro countries as bridging solution until budget controls takes place.

ECB President Mario Draghi will defend the euro and take more aggressive action to help fight the euro zone debt crisis if governments adopt a new fiscal compact.
For full story by Stephen Brown and Catherine Bremer of Reuters, go to http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-opens-door-action-sarkozy-075401417.html

Meanwhile, supporting the sentiment in gold, South Korea's central bank bought 15 tonnes of gold in November, following purchases of 25 tonnes in June and July, as central banks around the world, especially in emerging economies, have aggressively bought bullion over the past few months. "It's not a surprise, as gold seems to be the only thing central banks can buy to diversify their reserves as economic problems seem to spread around the world," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers

What's everyone eyeing these days..?

Here's a 5 year time chart of HSBC (0005. HK) .
Shares price hovering at HK$ 57

What's everyone buying these days..?

BAC share prices on a 5 year chart.
Price at US$ 5.14

Horrible days are here to stay

What a sell-down in the stock market of blue chip companies...! Huge losses were registered as share prices plunged within days. Below are some of the common favourites with their losses over a week:
Maybank from RM 8.70 to 7.60 ( down 13 % ). Public Bk from 13.00 to 11.70 ( - 10 % ). GenM from 3.50 to 3.00 (- 14 %). IOI from 4.70 to 4.30 ( - 9% ). MPHB from 2.50 to 2.20 ( - 12 % ). Boustead fr 5.30 to 4.60 ( -13 % ).

My current interest is in the plantation sector so I'm watching HS Plant currently at 2.30, TH Plant at 1.90, TDM at 2.70
It would be nice to nibble in HSP at 2.00, THP at 1.50, TDM 2.00

Spot gold at USD52/gm (1,617/oz) or AUD53/gm (1,648/oz) or RM165/gm (5,131/oz)

Banks downgrade. Hedging. Telco.Gold.

Despite the pretty good earnings of the banking sector in Malaysia, there is a general downgrade on the banking sector by most analysts. While I'm still upbeat on some of the bank stocks that pays pretty good dividends but I can't help noticed the selling pressure on CIMB which has influenced share prices of other banks. So I have conceded to the trend of Mr. Market and reduce my holding of banking stocks.

It's darn tough to trade in this treacherous condition but here's what I think you can do if you're experiencing some monetary losses in your current position and looking to recoup a loss (by hedging) and/or are looking for a potentially rewarding trade, on a SHORT TERM strategy or a LONG TERM one.

1.)... Look for stocks that're trending upwards and buy on dips... The only sector that's on my list is the telecom sector.
You may even have your own idea of sectors and stocks that're on the uptrend. You may check with your financial consultant, brokers for some recommendations but the decision to buy remains YOURS, and yours alone.. If in doubt, DON'T buy. Coz you cannot lose money further if you don't buy in..

You may buy stocks that're tanking, pray for a technical rebound. That's your prerogatives but never my liking (I've learned by paying my dues/ for my lesson to Mr. Market ). It make more sense to buy blue-chip stocks that're rising in share prices than dumping more money in losing stocks.

The idea is to hedge yr current losing trades by taking a position in several potential winning trades. And if your winning trades equalise your losing trades in monetary terms, it's time to quit the market... The idea is not to make big gains but minimise your losses and quit the market. Repeat --- Quit when trades equalise...!

2.)... Exit the stock market and invest LONG in precious metals IF you seriously believe we're in for a crash/collapse in the financial market.

I'm not the smartest gold investor around but this is what you can consider. Set up a precious metals fund equivalent to 10 - 20 % of your portfolio. Start by taking a small position, say 10% of your intended precious metals fund, at around this time, with prices hovering around USD 1,800/oz. Buy with another 40% of yr precious metals fund if gold price dips to USD 1,500 within one month and another 50% if it plunges to USD 1,200/oz within three months..

Patiently hold yr investment to 4 - 5 years and dream on for a USD 3,600/oz by 2015...? I guess it would be fair for me to take a position and post my gold investment gain/loss on a three month basis up to 2015. It would be interesting to prove the "gold bugs" story...
Forgotten are my minute gold investment in physical Gold Maple Leaf 1 oz in 2009 (?) when price of gold was at its highest hovering around RM3,300 and my 1 oz silver American Eagle was purchased at USD 16..
Happy investing...

Earnings. HSP.TM.AirAsia.MAS.Axiata.CIMB.Maybank.

HS Plant (nta 230, QQ 4.5/ 5/ 7/ 7/ 9.4 sen) Fv= RM2.80, now trading at RM2.70 Declares tax exempted 10 sen dv, going ex. 8th Sept
TM (nta 186, QQ 3.5/ 12/ 11/ 4.6/ 3.6 sen) Fv= RM1.70, now trading at RM4.10. Declares tax exempted 9.8 sen dv, going ex. 8th Sept.
Air Asia (nta 141, QQ 7/ 12/ 11/ 6/ 4 sen) Fv = RM2.40, now trading at RM3.50
MAS (nta 84, QQ 16/ 7/ 7/ -7/ -16 sen) Quaterly earning still in red and sinking
Axiata (nta 225, QQ 7/ 8/ -4/ 6/ 8 sen) Fv = RM3, now trading at RM 5 . Propose 4 sen dv
CIMB (nta 331, 12/ 13/ 12/ 12/ 13 sen) Fv = RM5, now trading at RM 7.80. Announces dv 12 sen, going ex. 8th Sept
Maybank (nta 420, QQ 13/ 14/ 16/ 15/ 15 sen) Fv= RM6, now trading at RM 8.60, propose dv 32 sen

How to trade safely in this market

Many blue chips counter are trading in a narrow band so it seems like we'll have to trade between these and be contented with a few percentage of gain within a week or two.
GenM and Maybank seems to be trading in the ranges of RM 3.5 to 3.7 and 8.7 to 9.0 respectively for the moment and if well traded, could yield a potential of 3 %. Not much but 3 % within a fortnight is much better than the same in a yearly FD. I think there's limited downside for these two counters. TM is another safe bet ranging from RM 3.85

There's many other counters you can trade for short term gain. I'm pretty sure you have your favourites to scalp for a profit. Just ensure you pick counters you're familiar with its price action, having good fundamentals (decent earnings) and newsflow.
I think Latexx and Supermax deserve a relook with commodities prices trending down. The only snag is the income that's priced in USD ( 1: 3 MYR ). Happy trading ..!

Repayment of Amortized Loan

Here's an amortization calculator formula for deriving the amount of monthly repayment taken against a loan/ mortgage.

A = P { i + i / [(( 1 + i ) pw. n) - 1]}

Where: A = periodic payment amount, P = principal amount, i = periodic decimal interest rate ( not percentage), pw. = to the power, n = total number of periodic payments.

eg. P = RM400000, i = 3.6% per annum ( 0.036 pa or 0.003 pm), n = 20 years ( 240 mths).
A= 400,000 {0.003 + 0.003 /[ ((1 + 0.003) pw. 240) - 1]} = 400,000 {0.003 + 0.003/[2.05222- 1]} = 2340.44
So annual repayment = RM2,340.44 x 240 months for RM400,000 loan at 3.6% mortgage rate

Maybank May Cut Dividends to 30 sen

Year 2008 total EPS = 60 sen, total dividend = 52 sen ( 17 sen, 15 sen, 20 sen paid respectively post Nov., Feb., Aug. 2008 announcement).

Year 2009 total EPS = 48 sen (my estimate). No dividend has been paid out so far. Coming August, what will Maybank pay its shareholders is anyone's guess.
My guess is 30 sen. Therefore dividend yield = 30/650 = 4.7 %

If you're hoping for 5 % dividend yield, then look to buy at 30 sen/ 0.05 = RM 6.00
If you had bought earlier at RM 5.00, then you might just earn 6 % dividend this August.