KLCI hovers below 1500: Very Bearish

 From May to Aug 2022, KLCI tops 1600 in mid May, plunges to 1420 in mid July and since has recovered to 1500. World economy is in shambles, liquidity crunching, sentiments are bad with inflation spiraling up due to geopolitical tensions and technically puts the world in a recession.

Stock prices have come off the highest from May and I have sold off all my holdings, IOI Corp, MHC, Sarawak Plant in the palm oil plantation sector. 

Maxis recent posted quarterly earning, Qeps of 4.2sen (Qeps/eps 4.3/4.6/4.2/3.7/3.8/4.2) seems to indicate consistent results. DIGI Qeps meanwhile was 2.8 sen (Qeps 3.4/3.6/4.0/3.9/3.0/2.8). Both declared dv 5 sen and 2.8 sen respectively going ex. by month end. Stock prices stood at 3.70 for Maxis and 3.60 for DIGI

CLMT stock price at RM0.57 (nta 1.10, Qeps 0.4/0.5/0.1/-2.4/1.0/1.1) declared dv 1.95sen going ex, 12th Aug. It is unclear whether earnings can be sustained given the tough environments that REITS are going through in the present. YTL reits closed at RM0.96  (nta 1.62, Qeps 0.0/5.6/0.9/0.1/0.0/4.8) declared a dv 2.07sen ex. on 12th

Scientex price plunges to RM3.40 (nta 1.96, Qeps 7.2/7.1/9.2/6.6/6.0/5.7) on worries of diminishing earning affected by rising cost of raw materials in their plastic packaging film production and their property developments in Johor.

Very bearish on the Malaysian stock market. Nothing really worth buying as most stocks seems so pricey, overvalued and risky. Don't listen to any analysts calling for a BUY & HOLD on any stocks.

Many people are holding cash (liquidity) and are fearful of the stock markets. Others are just holding their cash to ride out the uncertainties and their expenses in this liquidity crunch. Keep cash (liquidity) in hand, always.

Stock market still depressed.

Heavy selling for the whole week at local stock market.
Oil & gas, plantation and property sector share prices plunging more than 20% from recent high..
Looks like stocks is entering a bear market with everybody in a panic mode selling their holdings and asking question later..

KSL rose as high as 4.97 last month and since then had slid to about 4.20 and is traded currently at 3.80
Daiman has dropped from 3.70 and currently trades at 3.00 mark
Tambun share price tumbled from 2.60 to 2.06
PJ Dev slid from high of 2.20 to 1.60 (more than 30%)
Paramount dropped from 1.60 to 1.43
TA shares price tumbled from 93 to 76 sen
Blue chips Maxis, DIGI and HapSeng seem to be holding well at 6.50, 5.84 and 4.00 respectively
Liquidate more than RM500k of stocks for last one month..
And the selling has not subsided with KLCI down by 1% at 1768 : 1001 losers dominating 64 gainers in the local KLSE market.....      Happy trading...

Anomaly: IJM Plant cf. HS Plant

The shares pricing of these counters has bothered me quite a while:
IJM Plant (nta 172, Qeps 2.8/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 6.5sen) When assigned with a PE of  15 over the average of last two Qeps my fair value Fv would be 309
HS Plant (nta 239, Qeps 2.5/ 1.0/ 3.8/ 5.5/ 5.3sen) Fv 324 (assumed PE 15)
Swk Plant (nta 211, Qeps 2.7/ 0.5/ 5.7/ 5.4/ 6.4sen) Fv 354 (assumed PE 15)
Annual dividends of IJMP, HSP, SwkP is 7, 10 and 8 sen respectively.

Current share price of  IJMP is at RM 3.64 and is priced at PE = 364/20.6 = 18
Whereas current share price of HSP at RM 2.77 has a PE of 12
And SwkPlt at RM 2.67 carries a PE of 12.
Which tells me that HSP and SwkPlt share prices have a lot of catching up to do...

Earnings again. KLCI recovering.....

KLCI recovers from last week low of 1660 to close at 1727 this Friday..
Good recovery and stocks that attracted my attention are Johor- related stocks, viz., Daiman, KSL, Scientex and other stocks like Tambun, E&O, TM, Maxis and Maybank.

Recent earnings declared:
Hap Seng (nta 163, Q/Qeps 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8/ 4.9/ 9.7)
HapSeng Has increased their dv payout every half yearly from 4.5c to 6c and recent was 8c
Pays decent dv > 6%
HS Plant (235, 3.9/ 4.5/ 3.7/ 2.5/ 1.0) declares a 3c dv going ex. 30 Aug
Earnings of plantation stocks in general still remain weak

Tambun (076, 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.5) paid a 3.3c dv ex. 27th inst
TomyPak (099, 5/ 4/ 3.6/ 3.2/ 3.2) declares 2c dv going ex. 13 Sept
Tomypak pays 2c every quarter
Paramon (209. 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 3.2) declares a 2.5c going ex. 6 Sept
Luxchem (107, 4.4/ 3.1/ 4.6/ 3.5/ 3.8) declares a 3c dv going ex. 5 Sept
Pays decent dividend yield > 6% +

Maybank (512, 18.6/ 19.1/ 17.3/ 17.9/ 18.2) plans to pay 22.5c dv
Dv payout has decreased from 33c..
TM (191, 9.7/ 8.4/ 10.2/ 6/ 6) declares a 9.8c dv going ex. 10 Sept
Dv payout remains..
Daiman (489, 4.9/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 14.8/ 7.5) declares a 12c dv going ex. 5 Dec
KSL (316, 6.5/ 11/ 10/ 12.4/ 17.3)
Scientex (272, 10.9/ 11.6/ 11.9/ 13.7)
Why is KSL at RM 2 while Scientex is hovering in the RM 5 range..?

CPO price continues to tumble

CPO price continues to slide below USD 700 (RM 2230).
This is not conducive for the earnings of our local planters and is the reason why quarterly earnings have been plunging ... Read the full report below :-
Palm Oil Tumbles to Lowest Since 2009 as Global Supplies Climb
Providing more exposure to plantation stocks
Cepatwawasan 2Q profit falls 46% yoy on lower palm oil prices
Cepat at 94c (nta 132, Q/Qeps 1.7/ 1.9/ 1.1/ 1.2/ latest 0.9 sen ) PE= 94/5.1= 18 which is on the high side

Earnings Earnings Earnings. KLCI surges to 1776

UEML (nta 128, Qeps 1.3/ 2.5/ 2/ 4.7/ 4.9) Dv 3c going ex.23rd Jun
E&O (nta 126, Qeps 3.8/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 2.4/ 3.4) *** Expect to pay dv 4.5c
MahSing (153, 7.2/7.1/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 7.9)
Hua Yang (169, 9.1/ 11.4/ 15.2/ 10.0/ 8.6) Expect to pay dv 8.2c
Daiman (481, 7.1/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 14.8) ***
Tropicana (254, 2.7/ 8.4/ 12.5/ 8.3/ 5.5) ***
PJDev (208, 2.3/ 3.5/ 1.5/ 3.8/ 3.5) ***
Asas (215, 4.8/ 6.3/ 2.8/ 0.4/ 2.8) Dv 5c going ex. 1st July

TomyPak (098, 3.2/ 5/ 4/ 3.6/ 3.2) Dv 2c going ex.11th Jun
Johotin (173, 5.2/ 7.5/ 11.1/ 7.4/ 6 ) Dv 4.2c ging ex.3rd July
KJC (219, 6.1/ 4.1/ 6.2/ 10/ 6.9) Dv 6.25c going ex.20th Jun14

MPHB (249, 5.9/ 9.4/ 5.2/ 3.5/ 10.5) Dv 5c going ex.25th Jun
MBB (514, 17.6/ 18.6/ 19.1/ 17.3/17.9)
Boustead (453, 14/ 4.2/ 7.5/ 14.6/ 9.7) Dv 7.5c
Kulim (339, 5.6/ 163/ 5/ -103, 27.5)
TDM (517, 7.5/ 3.9/ 16.2/ 14/ 5.8) Paid dv 22c on 27th May

Happy investing ...

CPO price continues to slide

Price of CPO plunges to USD 800.
And dive s further to USD 760 ( RM 2,330 )
IJM Plant shares price dips ...

CPO price reverses gain.

CPO price tumbled more than 4 % to USD 933 ( x 3.06 = RM 2,860 ) as Fed's stimulus rally fizzles ..
Watch out, plantation stocks ...

Share prices of TH Plant, Swk Plant, TDM, KLK and PPB weakening ..

GenM. HS Plant. Maxis. TM. MWE.

GenM (nta 226, Q/Q 5.5/ 6.1// 6.2/ 4.8/ 8.8sen latest) Qeps improved.
Share price surged from RM3.30 to 3.53 last week. Dv 3.8 sen going ex. on 26th Sept

HS Plant (nta 234, QQ 9.5/ 8.3/ 6.6// 5.4/ 3.9 sen) Qeps of plantation companies generally weak
Dv 6 sen going ex. 12th Sept

Maxis (nta 098, QQ 7.3/ 7.2/ 12/ 7.6/ 6.2 sen) Latest Qeps declined
Announced Dv 8 sen ex. on 12th Sept

TM (nta 234, QQ 9.5/ 8.3/ 16.7/ 7/ 9.7 ) Latest Qeps improved on HSBB Unifi
Dv 9.8 sen going ex. 12th Sept

MWE (nta 211, QQ 5.3/ 5.4/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.1sen) Qeps flat
Dv 6 sen ex. 5th Sept

CPO prices tumbles. MYRinggit strengthen.

With weak crude palm oil price at about US 920 and weak USD against Ringgit, avoid buying plantation shares this few days. Unless of course the share prices plunges, like when TDM plantation earning was announced last week.

IJMP and HSP share prices stll holding well but others like J Tiasa, TaAnn have come off.
Buy only on deep discount to trade ...

If MYR continues to strengthen, it will also downgrades the earnings of the glovemakers who repatriates the earnings to Ringgit

Buy. Hap Seng Plantation

What's HS Plant doing at RM 3.00 while IJM Plant is hovering at RM 3.60 ..?

HSP (nta 230, QQ 9.5/ 8.3/ 6.6/ 5.4sen)
Fv = RM2.40 @ PE 10 based on last two Qeps
Currently trading approx. at RM 3.00 w/ pe 12.5
Dividend 10 sen x 2 = 20 sen for 2011
Declaring dividend in mid August

Hap Seng. MHC Plantation.

Hap Seng Cons (nta 150, Q/Q 4.8/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 3.9) declared a 1st interim dividend of 4.5 sen tax exempted gong ex. 23rd July ... Div yield abt 5 percent ...

MHC (nta 200, Q/Q eps 6.4/ 6.1/ 4.7/ 3.8) announced bonus issue of shares with free warrants on the basis of 2 for every 5 existing, going ex. on 23rd July. Shares price surged from RM 1.88 to RM 2.08 with a gain of 10 percent ...

Felda Global Ventures. Heard on the streets

By Cynthia Koons and Duncan Mavin
Young palm oil trees can be about three-feet tall with bunches of leafy palms sticking out on top. It's not easy for them to sneak up on you. Yet at Malaysia's state-run plantation company Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd. (5222.KU), the cost of planting trees was partly to blame for a surprising drop of about 50% in first quarter net profit.

The timing of such bad news is disconcerting given Felda's just raised $3.1 billion in the world's second largest initial public offering this year after Facebook Inc.'s (FB) ill-fated share listing. The profit slip marks a sharp contrast from the IPO prospectus, which promoted the group's expertise as the world's third-largest palm oil plantation operator in the world. Underwriters also talked up demand, citing a 4.2% rise this year in global consumption of edible oil and fats--one of palm oil's main uses. That hasn't meant much for Felda so far. First quarter revenue barely budged, rising just 1.8% from last year.

There can be few excuses for such poor foresight. A plantation company should know how much it costs to plant trees. Felda also said it had to pay a higher-than-expected price for crude palm oil. But given that's their business, it's hard to see how they couldn't have anticipated this sooner.

There's another reason to question Felda's growth story. The group's trees are older than competitors' on average, which makes them lower yielding. That explains why they're planting new ones.

Tuesday's profit drop raises questions about Felda's credibility at a critical time too. The company's shares will debut on the Malaysian stock exchange two days from now. They priced near the top of the range the company had been looking for, defying a tough market for IPOs globally, Felda sold its deal thanks to abundant demand from institutional buyers. But they won't hang around if the company keeps delivering unwanted surprises.

Plantation. Golden Agri

Golden Agri 3 months share prices fell from 80 SG cents to 60 cents ...

CPO prices fell to USD 930. Malaysian planters share prices to falter in days to come ..?

Gold. HSP. HSC. Unico. Boustead. GenP. KLK. IJMP

Gold chart shows weekly range between recent low of 1540 to high of 1600 .. Xau sells for 1580 USD today ...

Immediate resistances 1582, 1588, 1593
supports 1570, 1565, 1558

Poor earnings continue to afflict planters:
Hap Seng Plant (nta 250. Q/Q 7.2/ 9.5/ 8.5/ 6.6/ 5.4 sen) Latest Qeps declined almost 20 percent from previous ..
Hap Seng Cons (nta 150, QQ 4.8/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 3.9 sen) Latest Qeps plunged 25 percent
Unico (nta 96, QQ 1.5/ 2.6/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.8 sen) Latest Qeps slid 15 percent
Boustead (nta 443, QQ 11.9/ 19.7/ 12.9/ 18.6/ 14 sen) Earnings dropped 25 percent
Gent Plant (nta 430, QQ 12.4/ 18.4/ 15.0/ 12.4/ 10.4sen) Qeps down by 16 percent
KLK Plant (nta 658. QQ 35/ 40/ 43/ 32/ 20sen) Qeps tumbled by 40 percent
IJM Plant (nta 173, QQ 3.2/ 6.2/ 5.9/ 6.7/ 0.9 sen) Qeps dive by 80 percent

Fancy this : Impala Platinum

Plantation poor earnings.TSH.TDM.SOP.TWSP.

TSH (nta 104, Q/Qeps 5.8/ 8.8/ 8.4/ 3.2/ 1.8 sen) Latest Qeps fell about 45 percent from previous.
TDM (nta 496, Q/Q 12.7/ 13.9/ 21.9/ 18.7/ 7.5 sen) Latest Qeps slid 60 percent from previous
SOP (nta 289, Q/Q 12.8/ 15.9/ 17.3/ 9.9/ 9.1 sen) Latest Qeps flat cf. to previous
TWSP (nta 343, Q/Q 7.7/ 14.3/ 13.7/ 15.8/ 0.7 sen) Latest Qeps 0.7 sen cf. 15.8 sen ..!
You be the judge of what's becoming of the earnings of plantation companies ...

HSP and IOI are to release its earnings pretty soon, while KLK, Sime and IJMP will do so before month ends. It would be interesting to see how they fare ...

Meanwhile, take a look at Golden Agri Plantation two years chart. Shares price currently is at 64 cents compared to Sept 2011 plunge below 60 cents ...

Take another look at Wilmar two years chart. Share price plunging to 38 cents after recent reports show a huge loss in company earnings ... This looks like a good entry point to accumulate ... Techinical chartist, please please give me a clue ...

Commodities headed for violent correction again ..?

Gold plunges big time- from USD 1638 to 1580, a drop of 3.7 percent on renewed fears of Euro crises ( Greece political uncertainty, Spanish banks frailty, France new president fight against austerity) gripped investors ...This is bad news for gold investors as gold broke the uptrend line at 1620 ... And it could get even cheaper as gold struggles to find support ... < Er, good news for those aiming to buy gold at super low price with our strong Ringgit.  >

Commodity currency Aussie dollar continues to dive towards parity with the US dollar after federal government posted a budget surplus, signalling further rates cut may be on the table. Just a week ago RBA have knife cash/interest rate by 0.5 percent to 3.7           < Good for those funding kids studying  in Australia.  >

CRB over one year period showing the index falling from last year July highest to October lowest. Index seen sliding from recent high in March to current low ... Game over for commodities and its currencies ..? Are these the things to come for the Malaysian stocks market, cash interest rate cuts and its currency Ringgit .? I would have to say, YES, in the right sense of mind ...

Golden Agri Plantation

Share prices sliding

Is it time to cash out ..?

Ringgit has strengthen against USD from 3.60 in the last 3 - 5 years to the current 3.06 as shown in the first chart.
Manufacturers who export/sell their goods in US dollars, repatriate their profits to Malaysia will get less Ringgit now and these are reflected in their earnings. So a weak dollar is negative for exporters.


For foreign investor holding US dollars three years ago when Ringgit was weak and Malaysian equities were cheap, it was the near perfect time to ploughed your money in.
Now if you invert the chart, you would see it as a typical pattern of most stock market charts, forming a double top. Is this the end of the super bull run or will it pull back violently before the next upleg ..?

In the face of uncertainty of global market, would you pull your money out from Malaysia now that your returns from equities would easily have doubled and your forex gain 20 % ..?
Or coupled with the impending general election which is definitely going to cause a lot of volatility and opportunities in the local stock market, would you now liquidate and wait on the sidelines ..?

Sime. IOI. IJMP. HSP. THP. TDM.

Sime ( nta 413, QQ 14/ 22/ 18/ 18 sen ) Eps 72. Trading at RM 9.80 w/ PE 13.6
IOI ( nta 189, QQ 10/ 9/ 4/ 9 sen ) Eps 32. Trading at RM 5.30 w/ PE 14.3

IJMP ( nta 174, QQ 3/ 6/ 6/ 7 sen ) Eps 22. Trading at RM 3.30 w/ PE 15

HSP ( nta 235, QQ 7/ 9/ 8/ 6 sen ) Eps 30. Trading at RM 3.03 w/ PE 10

THP ( nta 123, QQ 4/ 7/ 7/ 7 sen ) Eps 25. Trading at RM 2.80 w/ PE 11.2

TDM ( nta 493, QQ 13/ 14/ 22/ 19 sen) Eps 67. Trading at RM 4.80 w/ PE 7