Sunday, January 31, 2010
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Sold Kinsteel (Q eps 2.1 sen) and Axiata in the last few days. Will buy Kinsteel when it dips below RM1.00
Looking at Lion Ind (Q eps 9.7 sen), Lion Div, Masteel (Q eps 6.8 sen), Southern Steel (recent Q eps 14 sen), Leader (Q eps 3.2 sen).
Supermax declines to RM5.12, very close to its fair value of RM5.07 ( with a pe of 10)
Friday, January 15, 2010
Steel stocks reverse their recent gains.
Kinsteel ralied from RM1.01 to closed at RM1.08 yesterday, reached a year high of RM1.16 today but reverses back to close at RM1.08
Kinsteel has advanced 20% since I bought it at RM0.96
Both Ann Joo and S. Steel both in the negative range today.
Look to add S. Steel when it retraces. Similarly for Leader. Both have impressive earnings.
Sunway has ran ahead of its 2010 earnings ( last Q eps 3.3 sen so my fair value RM1.32)
Looking at IJM (my preference)and Gamuda potential job awards in 2010.
HunzaPty ( Q eps 8.8 sen ) share price has surged to RM1.80 since I picked it at RM1.60 last week
BRDB (Q eps 8.6 sen) hasn't move yet.
Property stocks with fair value range of RM 1.50 to RM1.60 range, in my opinion:
Mah Sing ( Q eps 3.73 sen ), IJM Land ( Q eps 3.8 sen )
In the fair value range of RM1.30 to RM1.40 - > Glomac ( Q eps 3.26 sen ), Sunway ( Q eps 3.3 sen ), IGB ( Q eps 3.45 ) YNH Prop ( Q eps 3.56 sen )
In the fair value range of RM1.20 -> DNP ( Q eps 3.16 sen )
In the fair range of below RM1.00 -> E & O ( Q eps 1.62 sen )
Thursday, January 14, 2010
My E.G. Services @ RM0.52 today.
( na= RM0.12, quaterly eps = o.7 sen )
Assigning a PER of 10, fair value = 0.7 x 4 x 10 = 30.8 sen
Efficient E Solutions @ RM0.22 at today.
( na = RM0.12, quarterly eps = 0.66 sen)
Assigning a PER of 10, fair value = 0.66 x 4 x 10 = 26.6 sen
A firm buy at RM0.20 with 30 % upside...
I like both stocks but Efficient has better value for now..
Data obtained from Bloomberg showed the average PE for the sector in the healthcare equipment and services was 23.94 times.
ADVENTA BHD whose share price was at RM4.22 at midday, was trading at a PE of 35.9 times; LATEXX PARTNERS BHD RM4.84 (22.67 times), KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD RM6.93 (19.19 times) and Supermax Corp Bhd RM6.09 (18.47 times).
Top Glove Bhd, the world's largest glove maker, which closed at RM11.74 at midday, is only trading at a PE of 17.27 times and HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD RM7.34 (15.85 times).
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
There has been a steady increase in the cost of production, in particular the price of latex, which has jumped by 110% in a little more than a year to RM6.30 per kg on Jan 7 this year from the low of RM3 per kg in December 2008. “For every 10% increase in the price of latex for example, (it) will increase our total cost of production by at least 5%, so we have to adjust the selling price accordingly. “In the last three months, we have revised upwards our selling prices three to four times to cope with the cost increase, and we’re now reviewing the price every month,” Lim said in a briefing to the press, analysts and fund managers here yesterday.
“Demand for medical gloves remains resilient, and we are confident of maintaining our annual cumulative annual growth rate 37% achieved in the last 19 years,” Lim said.
Link from http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/157395-top-glove-raises-selling-prices-as-production-cost-increases.html
Managing director Lee Kuang Sia said the company has received orders to last the first half of this year as countries with rapidly growing populations boost healthcare expenditure to guard against the H1N1 flu pandemic. “We want to grow and meet that extra demand but it has to be done in a sustainable manner. Usually we will spend RM60 million (US$17.90 million) yearly to boost production but this time there will be a focus on automating the process,” he said at the company headquarters near Malaysia’s largest port, an hour away by car from Kuala Lumpur.
Kossan will report higher net profit for 2009 compared to the previous year, despite suffering foreign exchange losses and fires damaging a few production lines. Lim said the firm has locked-in US dollar receipts for 3-4 months to safeguard against currency volatility. -- Reuters
Monday, January 11, 2010
“The H1N1 impact has been more widespread, affecting developed and developing countries, and as a result, we saw a lot of new glove users,” Lim Cheong Guan, Top Glove’s executive director, said in an interview. “We expect those new users to continue using gloves even after the pandemic ceases,” he said.
Malaysia is the largest exporter and producer of medical rubber gloves, supplying 65 per cent of the world’s natural rubber and half of the world’s nitrile gloves. -- Reuters
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Sunway @ RM1.36 (na RM 1.24, pe = 136/13.2 = 10.3)
Latest eps = 3.3 sen
HunzaPTY @ RM 1.60 (na RM2.24, pe = 160/19 = 8.4)
Latest quarterly eps Nov 2009 = 8.8 sen <>
Rights issue c/w free detachable warrants (5 years) = 3 for 10 existing
BRDB @ RM1.60 (na RM3.15, pe = 160/22 = 7.3)
Latest eps = 8.8 sen <>
Friday, January 8, 2010
Ratio Rv = today opening price/fair price
1. Supermax ( Qtrly eps 12.6 sen, fair value RM5.07***). Rv = RM5.39/fair value = 1.06
2. Top Glove (Qtrly eps 21.0 sen, fair value RM7.90). Rv = RM10.40/fair value = 1.32
3a. Latexx (Qtrly eps 6.3, fair value RM2.52). Rv = RM3.40/fair value = 1.35
3b. Harta (Qtrly eps 12.3, fair value RM4.96). Rv = RM6.70/fair value = 1.35
4. Kossan (Qtrly eps 8.7, fair value RM 3.48). Rv = RM5.93/fair value = 1.70
5. Adventa (Qtrly eps 4 sen, fair value 1.60). Rv = RM3.50/fair value = 2.19
Oooops... I din't grabbed the best valued rubber stocks.. Well then, it's time to add Supermax....
Sorry I didn't include IRCB (loss making?) and Rubberex (industrial/household gloves) in my analysis. Rubberex (latest eps 6.8 sen) may follow the path of Adventa (both were at the initial RM1.80 range prior to making their big moves). Oh btw, Adventa will declare dividend (4 sen.???) soon..
How I assume my fair value is interestingly simple.
Assume annualised PER (price/earnings) = 10 , then quaterly PER (price/quarterly earning) = 40, meaning quaterly PER = 40 sen/ 1 sen.
So I'm willing to pay 40 sen on the price of a stock when it can earn 1 sen per quarter or 4 sen per year. Make sense...?
Take GenM (Resort) as an example
Latest Quaterly eps is 7 sen, so I'm willing to pay 40 x 7 sen = RM2.80 as fair price..
I'll accumulate more of GenM at below RM2.80 for now
Thursday, January 7, 2010
2. Top Glove
3. Latexx and Harta
Will update this post tomorrow with their ratio of current price/fair value.
Then you can gauge for yourself whether you got yourself a valued stock or pricey one..
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
CIMB Investment Bank Bhd raised its share price forecast for Adventa to RM5.44 from RM4.33, citing a “favorable” outlook for the company. -- Bloomberg