Remember the LORD for it is he who gives you the ability to produce wealth and so confirms his covenant... Deut. 8:18

Friday, December 30, 2011

Australian Dollar Wedged between Several Trendlines

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Ringgit down. Gold down

AUD is gaining against the Ringgit, trading at 3.223

USD buys 3.172 Ringgit. USD may rise further as renewed demand for risk aversion and safe haven continues in the midst of Eurozone debt crisis fear (Italian bond auction).

Gold continues to slide, from USD 1620 to 1587 with a weeekly loss of 2 % .

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Peace on earth and goodwill to all mankind

Christmas - the time when the Love of God came upon mankind ...
Have a blessed Christmas, everybody ...

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Religious authorities to discuss enforcement of law to prevent apostasy

Religious authorities to discuss enforcement of law to prevent apostasy written by Bernama, on 21 Dec

I did a search and found some guidelines if you're thinking of inviting Muslim friends to your festive celebrations ...

Guidelines For Muslims Celebrating Religious Festivals Of Non-Muslims
Wednesday, 19 January 2011 Super Admin
The 68th muzakarah of the National Fatwa Committee for Islamic Religious Affairs on April 12, 2005 discussed the Guidelines For Muslims Celebrating Religious Festivals Of Non-Muslims. The muzakarah has decided that:

In determining the non-Muslim celebrations that can be attended by Muslims, several main criteria should serve as guidelines so as not to contradict the teachings of Islam. The criteria are as follows:

1. The event is not accompanied by ceremonies that are against the Islamic faith (aqidah).
The meaning of “against the Islamic faith (aqidah)” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will lead to tarnishing the faith (aqidah) of Muslims.

For example: include religious symbols such as the cross, installing lights, candles, Christmas tree and so forth; sing religious songs; put any religious markings on the forehead, or other markings onto parts of the body; deliver speech or gestures in the form of a praise to the non-Muslim religion; bow or conduct acts of honour to the religious ceremony of non-Muslims.

2. The event is not accompanied by acts against the Islamic law.
The meaning of “against the Islamic law” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will contradict the Islamic teachings practised by the Muslim community.

For example:
i.Wearing red costumes like Santa Claus or other garments that reflect religion;
ii.Serving intoxicating food or beverages and the likes;
iii.Having sounds or ornaments like church bells, Christmas tree, temple or breaking of coconuts;
iv.Having ceremonies with elements of gaming, worship, cult, superstitions and the likes.

3. The event is not accompanied by “acts that contradict with moral and cultural development of Muslim society” in this country.
The meaning of “acts that contradict with moral and cultural development of Muslim society” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will contradict the values and norms of the Muslim society of this country which adheres to the Islamic teachings based on Ahlus Sunnah Wal-Jamaah.

For example:
i.Mixing freely without any limit or manners;
ii.Wearing conspicuous clothing;
iii.Singing songs that contain lyrics of obscenity and worship;
iv.Organising programmes such as beauty pageants, cock fighting and such.

4. The event is not accompanied by acts that can “stir the sensitivity of Muslim community”.
The meaning of “stir the sensitivity of Muslim community” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will offend the feelings of Muslims about their beliefs and practices.

For Example:
i.Speeches or songs in the form of non-Muslim religious propaganda;
ii.Speeches that insult the Muslims;
iii.Speeches that insult Islam;
iv.Presentations with the aim to ridicule the religious belief of Muslims.

5. The organisers and the public are asked to get the views of religious authorities before organising or attending celebrations of non-Muslims. -- JAKIM

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Stocks rebound. A$ recovers

Aussie dollar spiked overnight as global stocks rebound. Aussie buys 3.208 Ringgit

Monday, December 19, 2011

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Commodity currency A$ down

Commodity currency Aussie dollar opens the week lower with a gap down and trading abt 3.15 Ringgit.
North Korea's Leader Kim JI dies at 69. South Korea Seoul shares slide ..

Friday, December 16, 2011

China stocks falling

2 year chart of Shanghai Stocks CI seen struggling to keep afloat and breaking down to a two year low ... Short commodities firms that sell to China ...

New York: Ratings firm Fitch downgraded six major global banks on Thursday, citing increased challenges in the financial markets
Fitch lowered the long-term ratings on Bank of America and Goldman Sachs in the United States, British bank Barclays, French bank BNP Paribas, German bank Deutsche Bank and Swiss bank Credit Suisse.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Aussie and Gold plunges

Aussie plunges against Ringgit at 3.168
Aud has lost close to 2 % of its value as investors turn to USD as the ultimate safe haven. The rise in USD is negative for stocks and commodities. Will the Fed step in with another easing ..?

Gold plunges and is trading at 1602 AuD
Xau has fallen more than 9 % of its value this month from 1749 as traders become increasingly anxious abt euro zone and funds liquidate their positions.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Monday, December 12, 2011

European stocks fall as Moody's slams EU summit outcome

European shares fell on Monday as Moody's revealed it will review all EU credit ratings, blaming their failure to deliver "decisive policy measures" to fix the eurozone debt crisis.

In morning deals, London's FTSE 100 index slid 0.66 percent to 5,493.05 points, Frankfurt's DAX 30 dipped 1.42 percent to 5,902.08 points and the Paris CAC 40 lost 1.20 percent to 3,137.84.

The European single currency slipped to $1.3313 from $1.3384 late in New York on Friday.

"European markets awoke to a generally negative bias to risk assets this morning, with Moody's criticising the actions of eurozone leaders last week to the ongoing debt crisis as providing no new solutions," said Spreadex trader David White.

"Early trading today reflects this sentiment, as inflationary concerns are so far replaced with that of growth," he added.

Asian markets traded mixed on Monday as optimism over last week's European plan to introduce tougher fiscal rules to save the eurozone were weighed by lingering concerns leaders may not have done enough. Go here ...

Gold slides as dollar strength weighs

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Gold came under pressure on Monday, falling by as much as 2.0 percent after breaching a crucial level of support, as concern over the euro zone debt crisis encouraged investors to seek safety in the form of the U.S. dollar rather than bullion.

Spot gold was last down 1.7 percent on the day at $1,681.74 an ounce at 1007 GMT, having fallen to a low of $1,676.29 an ounce, its lowest since Nov. 25.

Traders and analysts said the break below $1,680 an ounce, the location of the uptrend that has been in place since the start of the year, accelerated the decline that was already in place given the near-0.8 percent rise in the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

Dollar strength tends to encourage non-U.S. investors to sell gold to lock in a higher profit in their own currencies. (Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Anthony Barker)

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Stocks seen recovering. Aussie plunges ...

Euro stocks tumble in the Friday morning but has since moved to positive territory.
5 days chart of Germany stocks index DAX

From Thursday Aussie plunges against the Ringgit from 3.24 to 3.18 level after noon Friday but gradually recovering to close 3.21

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Legendary Jim Rogers' views

In an interview on Breakot, Jim Rogers shares his positions ...
1). Long selected commodities and currencies
2). Short emerging market stocks, US technology stocks and European stocks.

His logic behind the portfolio: if economy turns up, Rogers win on commodities scarcity.
And if economy remains weak, his short position will more than offset his long positions.

Euro stocks struggle. Gold price slides.

German stocks index attempting to recover from the morning's negative territory

Gold Xau seen retreating to intraday low of 1675 Aussie $ before recovering to 1680 AUD (=1720 USD) ...

For sentiment on HK properties go to

Monday, December 5, 2011

Stocks rally. Aussie up

Aud/Usd at 1.0297
Stock prices rose and borrowing costs for European governments dropped sharply in response to the changes proposed on Monday by French President Nikolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But some of the optimism faded late in the day when Standard and Poor's threatened to cut its credit ratings on 15 eurozone countries, including the likes of Germany, France and Austria which have been considered Europe's safest government debt issuers.

Aud/Myr trending upwards to 3.23
but may reverses as Aussie is set to face RBA cut

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Aussie. USD. Gold.

Aud/Myr spiked on Wednesday touching 3.26 but has since dropped to close 3.196 as the week ends with a weekly gain of 2 % ... Gold Xau/Aud closed lower as it requires less of the stronger Aussie to buy gold.

Aud/Usd closed higher 1.021 with a weekly gain of almost 4 %
while Gold Xau/Usd also traded higher at 1746 with 2 % gain
implying Aud/Usd is a better trade of the two.

Usd/Myr tumbles down about 2 %
while Xau/Myr spike in mid-week but closed with little change at weekend. You would have gain little to trade gold in MYR.
The best way to trade currencies now: change MYR->AUD then pair against USD or EUR (although I trade EUR/USD) as AUD is a better base currency than EUR or USD.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Euro News.

Germany's Angela Merkel wants tighter fiscal integration in Euro zone with tougher budget and dismissed possibility of massive money printing by ECB.
Issuance of common euro zone bonds as a crisis solution would breach German constitution and is thus not possible. Instead, she would like ECB to continue buying bonds of troubled euro countries as bridging solution until budget controls takes place.

ECB President Mario Draghi will defend the euro and take more aggressive action to help fight the euro zone debt crisis if governments adopt a new fiscal compact.
For full story by Stephen Brown and Catherine Bremer of Reuters, go to

Meanwhile, supporting the sentiment in gold, South Korea's central bank bought 15 tonnes of gold in November, following purchases of 25 tonnes in June and July, as central banks around the world, especially in emerging economies, have aggressively bought bullion over the past few months. "It's not a surprise, as gold seems to be the only thing central banks can buy to diversify their reserves as economic problems seem to spread around the world," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Prepare for riots if Euro collapse

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.

Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.

Full story at

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Stocks surge for 2nd day. USD down. Aussie soars

Eurozone stocks surge for second day on news of coordinated efforts by Federal Reserve and others central banks to ease the threat against the currrency Euro. Commodity currency Aud continue to soars to 3.27 against Myr.

Aud/Myr posted weekly gain of more than 5 % while
Aud/Sgd gained more than 3 %
Similarly Aud/USD gained abt 6 %

Although gold in USD actually soars 4 % to 1747 as US dollar weakens ...,
But in AuD, gold actually continue to retreat 2 % to 1696 level as it now requires less A$ to buy the precious metal

Monday, November 28, 2011

Stocks surge on positive news. Aussie surges

Aud/Myr surge from 3.10 to 3.18, registering a gain of 2.6 % on positive news of Euro rescue and also business confidence in Germany.
Meanwhile gold Xau/Aud retreated from 1740 to 1725 on stronger A$.
Aussie is buying 99.2 US cents and will inch towards parity US$.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Gold. Aussie.

Gold (Xau) finding support at 1670 USD (or AUD 1730) and inching up ...

Aussie looking to slide to 96 US cents ..?
Or reversing up..?

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Commodity Currencies Underperformed in 2011. What Happened?

, On Friday 25 November 2011, 10:33

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars – the so-called “commodity bloc” – have been the worst performers against their US namesake among the majors so far this year.

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars – the so-called “commodity bloc” – have been the worst performers against their US namesake among the majors so far this year. The outcome reflects the group’s sensitivity to global economic growth expectations and investors’ risk appetite at a time when the post-2008 crisis faces its most considerable headwinds yet, with output expansion increasingly expected to slow worldwide while the Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis threatens to unleash another credit disaster onto financial markets.

Commodity_Currencies_Underperformed_in_2011_What_happened_body_Picture_5.png, Commodity Currencies Underperformed in 2011. What Happened?

Source: Bloomberg

Drivers of the Commodity Currencies

The fundamental forces behind the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars are clearly revealed in the currencies’ intimate correlation with the S&P 500 benchmark stock index over recent years. An understanding this relationship illustrates precisely why the commodity currencies were so strong on the way out of the Great Recession previously and whey they’ve lost their appeal so dramatically this year.

What does the S&P 500 represent?

Put simply, it is a reflection of the markets’ collective expectations of future earnings for the world’s largest companies. Looking past the minutiae of individual firms and evaluating the aggregate, those expectations are naturally a function of what investors believe about the pace of global economic growth. Naturally enough, if growth is expected to be robust, earnings are likely to rise as companies find more opportunities to do business as well as greater demand for their goods and services. Needless to say, the reverse is likewise the case.

Taking this logic one step further, it seems reasonable enough to say that growth expectations will probably be quite telling of the markets’ general appetite for risk. If aggregate earnings are expected to rise overall, investors will be comparatively more sanguine about taking additional risks for a chance at greater returns than they would if the global economy was in dire straits and uncertainties loomed large. Once again, the same logic applies in the opposite scenario as well. To this end, the S&P 500 is both a real-time proxy for the financial markets’ collective economic growth outlook as well as a barometer for their risk tolerance.

Commodity_Currencies_Underperformed_in_2011_What_happened_body_Picture_6.png, Commodity Currencies Underperformed in 2011. What Happened?

Source: Bloomberg

Why are commodity currencies aligned with the S&P 500?

All three economies look to exports of raw materials to the world’s top-two economic engines as their core source of expansion. In the case of Australia and New Zealand, that is China. The East Asian giant has a healthy appetite for Australian mining goods, most notably coal and iron ore, as well as New Zealand foodstuffs like meat and dairy. Meanwhile, Canada has a similar relationship with the United States. Indeed, close to 80 percent of Canadian exports are headed for US markets. Crude oil is an oft-cited focal point in this relationship, but other goods such as lumber are also important.

Needless to say, any given country’s economic growth outlook is an important determinant of its currency’s exchange rate. In the simplest of terms, strong performance puts upward pressure on the price of goods across the spectrum as growing demand chases after finite supply, driving inflation. Central banks seeking to cap price growth raise interest rates to encourage saving and discourage consumption in a bid to cool growth. Rising interest rates represent an increase in the return to be had for holding deposits in a given currency, driving investment demand and leading to appreciation.

If economic performance in Australia, Canada and New Zealand is determined by demand from the US and China, the long-term trajectory of their currencies are a function of that very same thing. Because the US and China happen to be the world’s first- and second-largest economies, the same can be said of the world as a whole, bringing us back to the S&P 500. All told, we can see that at their core, the Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian Dollars are no less a function of the very same global growth expectations and related risk appetite trends that drive the benchmark stock index.

Headwinds Facing Global Economic Growth, Risk Appetite

Having established what drives the commodity currencies, we turn to what undermined them as well as risk appetite at large in 2011. Broadly speaking, this brings us to two discrete themes: the slowdown in global economic growth and the lingering Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis.

The Global Recovery is Faltering

Turning first to global economic growth, it is clear that the markets have been faced with a deteriorating outlook for worldwide performance as all three of the world’s leading growth engines – the US, China and the Euro Zone – turn increasingly sluggish. The downturn in China is self-induced, while those in the West reflect the fading effects of aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts.

Commodity_Currencies_Underperformed_in_2011_What_happened_body_Picture_7.png, Commodity Currencies Underperformed in 2011. What Happened?

Source: Bloomberg

The administration in Beijing has struggled to contain inflation, with the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index hitting a three-year high by mid-year and hovering uncomfortably above the 6 percent threshold throughout the third quarter. Inflation poses a major problem for China’s rulers, who know all too well that the price of failing to secure affordable access to basic necessities for the country’s enormous population is often mass upheaval and regime change. As such, authorities moved to slow the economy and curb price growth with a total of 11 interest rate hikes so far this year, at times acting on the 1-year lending and/or deposit rates as well as banks’ reserve requirements. The results have been dramatic: the annual GDP growth rate slowed to the weakest in two years by the third quarter while the Manufacturing PMI gauge of factory-sector growth that approximates trends in the overall economy dropped to the weakest since February 2009 in October.

In the US, much of the damage occurred in the first half of the year, with GDP adding a paltry 0.4 percent in the first quarter followed by a still sub-par 1.3 percent in the three months through June. Meanwhile, a Citigroup metric tracking US economic data surprises sank to the lowest since late 2008 by mid-June. Much of this weakness can be traced to the disappearance of the boost from the government’s aggressive stimulus spending, but ripple effects from such events as the Tohoku earthquake in Japan that – for example – disrupted parts shipments to US auto manufacturers are likewise to blame. Performance seems to be improving in the second half of the year, but consensus annual GDP growth expectations compounded in a survey from Bloomberg suggest the economy will add 1.8 percent from the previous year in 2011, a marked slowdown from the 3 percent recorded in 2010.

Finally turning to Europe, the fading impact of stimulus measures and a lurch toward austerity on the fiscal side of the equation were compounded by added pressure from the European Central Bank in the monetary policy space. Mirroring its often-criticized decision to raise interest rates in the middle of 2008 as the global credit crunch was on the cusp of being unleashed onto financial markets, the ECB opted to react to rising headline with a cumulative 50bps in tightening between April and July. The results have been dramatic: economists’ 2011 economic growth expectations (as tracked by Bloomberg) topped out in June and began to trend firmly lower in August, now calling for the currency bloc’s GDP to add just 1.6 percent this year. The outlook for 2012 is even more ominous, with a paltry 0.7 percent increase set to underperform the rest of the G10 by a wide margin.

Euro Zone Debt Crisis Rekindles Meltdown Fears

Amplifying already substantial headwinds facing risk appetite is the return to the spotlight of Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis. The inability of some countries in the currency bloc to keep up with their debt obligations seemingly vanished from the foreground in 2010 after Greece and Ireland received 110 billion and 85 billion bailouts in May and November, respectively. This year seemed to start on a positive note when Eurozone finance ministers set up a permanent €500 billion bailout facility called the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), but stress returned as Portugal admitted it was underwater and asked for a rescue in April. It received a €78 billion lifeline in May, but another lull in market jitters was not to be.

In June, Eurozone finance threatened to withhold an aid payment to Greece unless the country agrees to commit to harsher austerity measures, sparking fears that a default within the currency bloc was imminent. Though the Greek Parliament approved further budget cuts and received the aid while Eurozone officials cobbled together a second €109 billion aid package by July aimed to fund Athens as well as prevent contagion elsewhere in the region, the situation began to spiral out of control. By August, yields on Spanish and Italian bonds began to soar as investors demanded a hefty premium to lend to the next set of Euro member states thought to come under sovereign pressure. The ECB reluctantly agreed to begin buying the two countries’ bonds in a bid to cap borrowing costs, but the effort proved too anemic to have a game-changing impact. A so-called “comprehensive” solution hashed out at a summit in October – proposing to write down 50 percent of privately-held Greek debt, lever up the existing 440 billion bailout fund (the European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF) to €1 trillion, and require Eurozone banks to adhere to a 9 percent reserve requirement – failed to reassure investors. Likewise in November, short-lived sigh of relief following a change of governments in Greece and Italy is already running out of stream.

The debt crisis presents a two-pronged problem. On one hand, it amplifies already considerable headwinds facing Euro Zone economic growth. Soaring borrowing costs amid fears of a default within the currency bloc stymie growth as individuals and businesses find it more expensive to spend and invest. In turn, slower growth reduces regional governments’ tax intake, making it that much harder to reduce deficits, stoking already considerable sovereign solvency fears and producing a vicious cycle. On the other, it threatens to unleash another market-wide selloff and global credit crunch, plunging worldwide finance at large into another existential crisis just three years after the 2008 debacle.

Commodity_Currencies_Underperformed_in_2011_What_happened_body_Picture_8.png, Commodity Currencies Underperformed in 2011. What Happened?

Source: Bloomberg

Needless to say, the key threat is that of a default in a large country like Italy or Spain – the third- and fourth-largest economies in the Eurozone, respectively – where the problem is simply too big to be addressed with a Greece-style bailout. Indeed, Italy is the world’s third-largest bond market, meaning the impact of its default would prove far more detrimental than the now infamous collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers that triggered what would become the Great Recession. Countless banks, funds and other institutions would suddenly find their holdings of Italian bonds to be absolutely worthless and be forced to book sharp losses.--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

What's everyone eyeing these days..?

Here's a 5 year time chart of HSBC (0005. HK) .
Shares price hovering at HK$ 57

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

What's everyone buying these days..?

BAC share prices on a 5 year chart.
Price at US$ 5.14

China scraps orders for up to 300,000 T of palm oil

BEIJING/KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 23 (Reuters) - China has cancelled orders for up to 300,000 tonnes of refined palm oil over the past month as some traders had over-booked cargoes and domestic prices remain lower than that of imports, Asian traders said on Wednesday.

The scrapped orders were for cargoes scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of 2012 when China celebrates Lunar New Year festival in late January with a week long public holiday -- a peak demand season, they said.

"It has been going on for some time, a month or so. There are really no profit margins for the Chinese importers now and they are getting out while they can. There is still time to buy later on," said a Malaysian trader dealing with China.

Benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped to a near two-week low of 3,128 Malaysian ringgit per tonne after the news, which signals demand could slow.

News of the cancellations come as China's factory sector shrank the most in 32 months in November, reviving worries the world's No.2 palm oil buyer may be skidding towards an economic hard landing that would weaken commodity demand.

Two Chinese traders said a major state-owned trading house had cancelled orders for some 100,000 tonnes of refined palm oil last week.

"It does not make sense to ship back palm oil as domestic prices are about 800 yuan to 1,000 yuan lower than imported price. It is better to wash out the cargo if you have not booked the vessel," said one of the traders.

But the trader added that imports in January to March next year would still be big at 500,000 tonnes each month. This year in the first quarter, China imported over 1 million tonnes, customs data show.

Malaysian traders said demand for palm oil will be strong as fears that a brewing La Nina weather could worsen the monsoon rains and limit production, spurring China to order fast to avoid another upswing in prices.

"It really depends on Dalian market prices because the prices have come under pressure from the global economic sentiment and the fact that China has been selling its state reserves to bring down prices," said another Malaysian trader.

"But with running down the reserves, there is an opportunity for demand to rise as China has to restock," the trader added. (Editing by Himani Sarkar)

Monday, November 21, 2011

Latexx. KJC. MAS.

Glovemaker Latexx (nta 123, Q/Q 8/ 5/ 6/ 8/ 5 sen) Latest Q eps drops from 8 to 5 sen. Fv = RM2.00, now trading at RM 1.80
KJC (nta 202, Q/Q 7/ 5/ 7/ 7/ 6 sen) Fv = RM 2.40, now trading at RM 1.90
MAS (nta 069, Q/Q 7/ 7/ -7/ -16/ -14 sen) Continues to be in the red...

Expects more downside in the next quarterly earning..
And price slides...

Aussie testing trendline

Aussie nearing a downward sloping trendline.
A drop through would indicate an accelerated weakness towards 9750, 9620 and eventually the October low of 9390.

Resistance is 9910, 9960 and 10110... By Jamie Saettele, CMT

Aussie continues down trend.

Commodities currency, Aussie buying 98.9 US cents.

Looks like trending down towards 0.95 level against the US dollar.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

IOI Corp Q earning dives

IOI (nta 181, Q/Q eps 8/ 8/ 10/ 8/ latest 4 sen). Latest quaterly eps dives to half of preceeding. Assume Fv = RM3.20, IOI shares price is now trading at RM5 w/PE of 16.
IOI is not as attractively valued as previously thought.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

AUD. XAU slides

Aussie tumbles weekly from 3.225 to 3.165 against Ringgit, posting a weekly loss of approximately 2 %.
It closes the week with almost 3 % loss against the US dollar.

Gold plunges from weekly high of USD 1,795 to close at 1,725, with a loss of 4 % .
Xau/ Aud was just down with a 1 % loss from AUD 1740 to 1720/oz.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Resolving R.Sawit

Someone asked if R. Sawit is a good buy ..?
This is what I got in early 2011 before they embark on the acquisition trail and recent issuing of rights shares with bonus shares...
R. Sawit (nta 61 sen, 3.8 sen)
CPO yield/ ha = 160,ooo mt x 0.2145 /16,423 ha = 34, 320/16,423 = 2.09 mt/ ha which is below the industry standard of 4 mt/ ha..
Earning Sensitivity = 34,320 mt/ 156,600,000 shares = 0.219 mt/ 1000 shares
Every RM 100/mt increase in CPO price => + 2.19 sen EPS accretive

From R Sawit's current website on 14th Nov.:
Total plantation land 91,793 ha
FY2010, ffb = 235,111 mt and CPO = 0.2145 x 235,111 = 50,431 mt
Assume planted acreage in Dali's post of 49 300 ha,
CPO yield/ ha = 50431/49300 = 1.02 mt/ha which indicates either the oil palm trees are very young or the additional landbanks are seated on peat soil.

Issued shares = 1,230,000,000
Let's derive our Earning Sensitivity for R.Sawit;
Annual CPO yield FY 2010/ 1000 shares = 50,451 mt/ 1,230,000 = 0.04 mt / 1000 shares
Every RM 100/ mt increase in CPO, then annualised EPS => + 0.4 sen accretive.
Try compare this earning sensitivity with THP (1.9 sen), IJMP (1.5 sen), HSP (1.7 sen), Cepat (1.2 sen), NPC (2.4 sen), Kwantas (2.9 sen), TSH (4.3 sen), Glenealy (5.4 sen)

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Alternative Investment. Gold. Platinum. Silver.

Here's a chart of gold on a 2 year frame, with daily prices currently staying above 30 and 200 day MA ...
You can pull similar 5, 8 and 10 year charts and they exhibit similar trends ...
Good entry point 1,550 ...
Platinum spot price (Xpt/Usd) tends to be volatile as shown recently on this 2 year frame chart, presenting a good opportunity to take a position at recent low of USD 1450 ...
Pull out a 5 year frame chart and you'll can see Pt peaks at USD2270

Silver plunged from recent high of USD 48/oz and is hovering at 34 level ...
Buying on dips below USD30 seems like a good tactic ...

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Latexx. Supermax. Kossan. Hartalega

Latexx (nta 120, Q/Q 8/ 5/ 6/ 8 sen) Fv = RM2.70 if we assume PER 10. Now trading at RM 1.95 on PE of 7
Supermax (nta 221, Q/Q 11/ 10/ 7/ 7/ 9 sen ) Fv = RM3.30 on PER 10. Now trading at RM3.79 with PE 12, which is relatively expensive.
Kossan (nta 150, Q/Q 9/ 9/ 7/ 7 sen) Fv = RM3.20 on PER 10. Now trading at RM2.90 below PE 10
Hartalega (nta 152, Q/Q 13/ 13/ 14/ 15/ 13 sen) Fv = RM5.50 on PER 10. Now trading at RM5.50

Monday, November 7, 2011

Gold advances as Aussie eases

Here's a chart of Xau/Aud (Gold/Aussie) on a 5 days time frame showing gold rallying from 1625 to AUD 1738.
That's a weekly gain of almost 7 %...

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

AUD/MYR eases

Aussie eases from a peak of 3.32 on 27th Oct to hit a intraday low of 3.21 on 1st Nov 2011 on doubt of the solution to Euro debt crisis and cutting of 25 basis point to RBA cash rate.
Since then it has shown some recovery, buying Ringgit 3.25
SGD/MYR also recovers from plunge of 2.438 low yesterday to trade at 2.46 ................ ..............XAU/AUD trades at 1675

Monday, October 24, 2011

MYR weakens against SGD, AUD, NZD

Here's a 6 months time frame chart showing SGD gradually appreciating against MYR, from a low of 2.40 to approximately 2.50
Ringgit also weakens against AUD and NZD: AUD now buys 3.26 MYR and NZD buys 2.52 MYR.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Buy this metal: more precious than gold

This is absurd: platinum is now trading at USD 1533 spot price and it is now lower/ cheaper than gold at USD 1656. Ratio of platinum/gold is approximately 0.93 although platinum is much rare a commodity than gold.. If I remember correctly, it should be trading at ratio of 1.5 to 1.8 range...
I've always wanted to get my hand on a physical platinum 1 oz coin when it was trading at USD 800 - 1000 range two/three years ago but unfortunately there weren't any legitimate seller in the Malaysian metal market. So if you're in Australia, USA or Europe, this is simply a must-grab physical item..!

Monday, October 17, 2011

Trading Options. AUD/MYR

AUD/MYR chart on a time frame of 6 months, with the AUD trading range within 3.02 to 3.25

Aussie today climbed to a intraday high of 3.22 in the morning but has since slid to 3.17 against the Ringgit in the evening as news of German Finance Minister dampened hopes that the impending summit would produce a breakthrough in Euro debt crisis. AUD/USD dropped from 1.04 to 1.02

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

AUD continues to soar

Aussie continues its winning streak to USD 1.015 on Wednesday as the Euro bailout fund looks more likely. Meanwhile release of the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on 2oth Sept showed officials were still gloomy about US economy, which were negative on US dollar.
AUD soars to 3.18 Ringgit (1 month chart) and GBP/MYR at 4.93
Indonesia cuts its cash rate while Singapore Monetary Authority had said it will slow the appreciation of its dollar. Will Malaysia cuts its cash rate and loosen its monetary policy too..?

CRB Index (12 mths chart) is recovering to 311 but still below 50Day Moving Average.

Friday, October 7, 2011

AUD recovers strongly

AUD recovers strongly after ECB announced that it would continue to assists lenders to prevent a credit crunch, easing the pressure in the Euro debt zone. Further recovery of AUD will depend on US job figures, due tonight Sydney time and also the Australian labour force set of data due coming Thursday...
AUD/MYR seen trading at 3.10 level
GBP/MYR stayed at 4.91 level

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

AUD continues to fall

AUD was on a downward path all Tuesday and fell to its lowest due to concerns about global growth. It plunges to 94.6 US cents after Central bank RBA said it decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 % but was open to lowering the cash rate if inflation eases.

AUD/MYR plunges to low of 3.0229
GBP/MYR dip to a low of 4.91 from 4.99 (within five hours).

Monday, October 3, 2011

Trading Options. Aud/Myr. Xau/Aud. Gbp/Myr

AUD/MYR hovering at 3.09 from a recent rebound of 3.06
AUD may revisit recent low of 3.06 if selling of commodities continue within the week so it's best to stay at the sideline or buy the option at strike of 3.00 if possible...
If you're already holding AUD, then consider doing an XAU/AUD option swap at strike/exercise price of 1600 or 1500 level as XAU/AUD is currently trading at 1700.

Meanwhile GBP/MYR has soared to high of 5.00 from below 4.80 within four weeks..