My Profitable Investment Over Last 3 Months

Plantations:
Bought Boustead at RM 4.30 and still accumulating ( gain 32% at RM 5.70 today )
TDM at RM 2.15 & 2.41 and still accumulating ( up 10% at RM 2.50 )
HS Plant at RM 2.79 and still accumulating ( up 8 % at RM 3.02 )
I'll evaluate another few counters in this sector and then take some position in them.
Properties & Building Materials:
Sunrise at RM 2.13 ( up 48 % at RM 3.16 )
Suncity at RM4.00 and accumulating ( up 2 % at RM 4.08)
MaSteel RM0.85 ( up 21 % at RM 1.02 )
Leader RM 0.88 and accumulating ( up 2 % at RM 0.90 )
Likes Ann Joo. Loves South Steel even more but unfortunately capped in price.
I have posted the fundamentals on the above stocks so the price movement should trend upwards in the medium term.
My loser: TM and CMMT ( down 2 % )

CMMT Reits. Property Co. Steel Cos. on my radar

CMMT just posted their maiden earning of Q eps of 6 sen. Assuming quarterly earnings can be maintained and with annualised PER of 10, fair value Fv = 6 x 4 x 10 = RM2.40
Comparatively AXreit, UOAreit, Qcap, ARreit, STAreit have PER ranging from 11 to 13. So CMMT is a buy for me at RM1.09

Sunrise (nta RM 2.21, Q eps 7.8 sen ) Assume PE 10, Fv = 3.12
Suncity (nta RM5.21, Q eps 15 sen ) Fv = RM 6.00
DNP (nta RM 2.35, Q eps 6 sen ) Fv = RM 2.40
Hunza (nta RM 2.30, Q eps 7 sen ) Fv = RM 3.20

Lion Ind (nta RM 4.25, Q/Q eps 10/11/12/17 sen ). Trading at PE of 4
MaSteel (nta RM 2.12, Q/Q eps 7/5/3/4 sen ). Trading at PE of 5
Kinsteel (nta RM 0.89, Q/Q eps 2/4/2/1 sen ). Trading at PE of 11
Leader (nta RM 1.25, Q/Q eps 4/3/2/3 sen ). Trading at PE of 8

In News: Latexx. SSteel. HunzPty.DiGi

LATEXX PARTNERS BHD more than doubled its net profit to RM20.72 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010 (1QFY10) from RM9.14 million a year earlier on the back of capacity expansion, aggressive marketing strategy and overall cost savings.Revenue surged 79.4% to RM126.17 million from RM70.32 million, while earnings per share rose to 10.52 sen from 4.7 sen. It declared a tax exempt interim dividend of 2.5 sen per share.

SOUTHERN STEEL BHD posted a net profit of RM34.48 million in its first quarter ended March 31, 2010, versus a net loss of RM65.48 million a year earlier on the back of a higher revenue in line with the economic recovery.Revenue surged 59.74% to RM628.74 million from RM393.6 million, while pre-tax profit totaled RM37.1 million versus a loss of RM78.5 million a year earlier. Basic earnings per share stood at 8.2 sen, versus a loss per share of 15.6 sen previously.

Penang-based Hunza Properties Bhd’s net profit surged 95.26% to RM11.29mil for the quarter ended March 31, 2010 compared with the previous corresponding period on higher property sales and contributions from the Gurney Paragon project.
The company said in an announcement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday that revenue for the quarter jumped 214% to RM58.52mil.

DIGI.COM BHD net profit for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010 rose to RM278.26 million from RM275.44 million a year ago, on the back of a 6% increase in revenue to RM1.3 billion. The company had on Tuesday, May 4 also declared a first interim dividend payout of 35 sen per ordinary share of 10 sen each, payable on June 18, 2010. Earnings per share rose to 35.80 sen from 35.40 sen a year earlier, while net assets per share was RM1.77.

News: Telekom. Supermax. MaSteel

The Employees Provident Fund, Malaysia’s largest pension fund, bought 5.5 million shares in Telekom Malaysia Bhd, between April 5 and 6, raising the fund’s stake in Telekom, the nation’s biggest fixed line operator, to 11 per cent, according to a stock exchange filing. -- Bloomberg

Supermax Corp Bhd is optimistic of a bullish financial performance this year as its expects earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2010 to exceed its earnings guidance for the year. Executive chairman cum group managing director Datuk Seri Stanley Thai said the company was revising its EPS target from a minimum of 50 sen per share to a minimum of 62 sen per share for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010. He said the revised profit guidance for the current year took into account latex price fluctuations, foreign exchange and the possibility of a hike in natural gas and electricity tariffs.

Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (Masteel) expects its overseas revenue contribution to grow by 65 per cent in 2012 from the 30 per cent at present following the completion of its downstream expansion.

Steel-Making Co. Q eps. Fair value

Some of the steel-making companies quarterly earnings.

Lion Ind (Q eps 11.7 sen, nta RM 3.97). Fv = 11 x 4 x 10 = RM 4.68
At RM 1.75, it's very attractively priced at 38 % of fair value or annualised PER 3.8

Lion Div (Q eps 5.7 sen, nta RM 1.78) . Fv = RM 2.28, today's price RM 0.44 PER 1.9
Southern Steel (Q eps 14.2 sen, nta RM 1.80). Fv = RM 5.68, today's price RM 2.46 PER 4.5
CSC Steel (Q eps 9.9 sen, nta RM 2.09). Fv = RM 3.96, today's price at RM 1.76 PER 4.4
MaSteel (Qeps 5.4 sen, nta RM 2.14), Fv = RM 2.16, today's price RM 1.09 PER 5
Kinsteel (Q eps 4.4 sen, nta RM 0.85). Fv = RM 1.76, today's price RM 1.02 PER 5.8
Ann Joo Reso (Q eps 4.5 sen, nta RM 1.80). Fv = RM 1.80, today's price RM 2.70 PER 15

So guess which counter offers the best value..?

Steel rolling out a strong 2010

Steel sector Reiterate overweight:
Malaysian long steel makers (Ann Joo, Lion Industries, Malaysia Steel Works, Southern Steel and Kinsteel) staged a strong comeback in 4Q09 after reporting a combined net profit of RM218 million for the Oct-Dec period, more than 100% increase year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter.We attribute the increase in 4Q09 net profit largely to the recovery in steel price, decline in raw material price and cost-cutting initiatives.We reiterate our overweight stance on the steel sector given the bullish outlook.

We continue to like Kinsteel for its exposure to both upstream and downstream steel production, which are expected to benefit from the upsurge in demand and steel prices.We expect margins to recover in 2010 to fuel earnings growth. The decrease in inventory values for three consecutive quarters since December 2008 indicates that steel players have already exhausted/marked down their expensive input (iron ore). As such, the expected increase in steel prices would likely boost FY10 margins and earnings.According to Kinsteel, billet and steel bar prices in January 2010 have rebounded to US$520/tonne and RM2,200/tonne respectively from US$490/tonne and RM2,050/tonne in 4Q09. We expect these prices to continue rising on the back of higher demand for steel from the construction sector. We maintain our target price for Kinsteel at RM1.24, based on 13 times CY10 earnings per share (EPS), which is 8% higher than our 12 times target price-earnings ratio (PER) for the steel sector.

For investors who like to ride through the booming steel sector in China, we recommend Sino Hua-an as it is expected to benefit from rising steel demand due to spike in infrastructure spending under the Rmb4 trillion (RM1.97 trillion) stimulus package. We value Sino Hua-an at 65 sen, based on 10 times FY10 EPS given its smaller market capitalisation.As far as coke price is concerned, we understand from Sino Hua-an that prices have been volatile in the first two months of 2010 relative to the firm coking coal price at Rmb1,400/t. This has resulted in a narrowing spread following the decline in coke price in February. However, we believe the drop in coke price is temporary and foresee the price to strengthen after the Chinese New Year. — TA Securities, March 5

Rubber declines, Steel reverses gain. Property Stocks

This is a rotten day for rubber stocks. There was heavy selling pressure since yesterday on news that most of the stocks were overpriced ahead of their 2010 earnings and overbought above RSI 90. I sold all my holdings of Adventa since yesterday.

Steel stocks reverse their recent gains.
Kinsteel ralied from RM1.01 to closed at RM1.08 yesterday, reached a year high of RM1.16 today but reverses back to close at RM1.08
Kinsteel has advanced 20% since I bought it at RM0.96
Both Ann Joo and S. Steel both in the negative range today.
Look to add S. Steel when it retraces. Similarly for Leader. Both have impressive earnings.

Sunway has ran ahead of its 2010 earnings ( last Q eps 3.3 sen so my fair value RM1.32)
Looking at IJM (my preference)and Gamuda potential job awards in 2010.
HunzaPty ( Q eps 8.8 sen ) share price has surged to RM1.80 since I picked it at RM1.60 last week
BRDB (Q eps 8.6 sen) hasn't move yet.

Property stocks with fair value range of RM 1.50 to RM1.60 range, in my opinion:
Mah Sing ( Q eps 3.73 sen ), IJM Land ( Q eps 3.8 sen )
In the fair value range of RM1.30 to RM1.40 - > Glomac ( Q eps 3.26 sen ), Sunway ( Q eps 3.3 sen ), IGB ( Q eps 3.45 ) YNH Prop ( Q eps 3.56 sen )
In the fair value range of RM1.20 -> DNP ( Q eps 3.16 sen )
In the fair range of below RM1.00 -> E & O ( Q eps 1.62 sen )

Southern Steel

Recently reported its third quarterly profit, eps 8.3 sen with declaration of 2.5 sen tax exempted dividend going ex. 25th Nov.
Dividend yield = 10/190 = 5.2%
PER = 190/32 = 6
Either Ann Joo is overpriced or Southern Steel underpriced.
I'm buying for med to long term since I've sold all my Ann Joo
Looking for Kinsteel at below 90 sen and Lion Div below 46 sen

Kinsteel catching up

Traded 2 counters: Kinsteel (steel sector) and Supermax (gloves/health sector)..

Masteel had some positive news on Tuesday and its share rose above RM1.00 from around 93 sen. In my previous posting, I had pointed the highs and lows of several steel companies counters with their ratio on the current share prices. I remembered Kinsteel at previous year high of RM1.80 and Masteel at RM1.30.

So I figure that Kinsteel at around 95 sen will play catch up. And it did....! Kinsteel have more upside in its share price considering that its fair value at 82 sen and will probably get a re-rating from analyst. Watch Kinsteel prices compared to Masteel.

Similarly Southern Steel (laggard) is playing catch-up with Ann Joo Resources. If memory serves me right, previous year high of Ann Joo was RM4.20 with Southern Steel at RM3.80. You might want to consider grabbing Southern Steel shares (still cheap) before it does catch up Ann Joo's.

There's another similarity in share prices currently between Lion Ind and Perwaja although Lion Ind previous year high above RM4. Knowing all these may help you spot some winners.

Southern Steel

KUALA LUMPUR: Southern Steel Bhd reported a net loss of RM12.7mil, or loss per share of 3 sen, against a net profit of RM202.5mil, or 48.3 sen per share, for its second quarter ended June 30 on lower steel demand and lower prices.

Group revenue fell to RM488.4mil from RM977.5mil a year ago.
“The drop in revenue was in line with the contraction in steel demand and lower prices experienced since the second half of 2008,” the company said in notes accompanying its financial results yesterday.

For the six months to June 30, it recorded a net loss of RM78.1mil against a net profit of RM298.8mil in the previous corresponding period.
On prospects, the company said the worst in this economic downturn appeared to be over .
“The board is cautiously optimistic that the performance of the group will continue to improve for the rest of the financial year,” it said.

For the financial year ending Dec 31, an interim tax exempt dividend of 2.5% (2008: first interim 7.5%) has been approved and will be payable on Sept 11.

Southern Steel

KUALA LUMPUR: Southern Steel Bhd reported a net loss of RM12.7mil, or loss per share of 3 sen, against a net profit of RM202.5mil, or 48.3 sen per share, for its second quarter ended June 30 on lower steel demand and lower prices.

Group revenue fell to RM488.4mil from RM977.5mil a year ago.
“The drop in revenue was in line with the contraction in steel demand and lower prices experienced since the second half of 2008,” the company said in notes accompanying its financial results yesterday.

For the six months to June 30, it recorded a net loss of RM78.1mil against a net profit of RM298.8mil in the previous corresponding period.
On prospects, the company said the worst in this economic downturn appeared to be over .
“The board is cautiously optimistic that the performance of the group will continue to improve for the rest of the financial year,” it said.

For the financial year ending Dec 31, an interim tax exempt dividend of 2.5% (2008: first interim 7.5%) has been approved and will be payable on Sept 11.

Three Lions Roar Again.

Lion Corp, Lion Div, Lion Ind today saw ferocious moves and huge gain about 10% in the stock market again as investors plough money into steel sector.
Kinsteel and Perwaja surge approx. 6 %

Ann Joo led the trend a couple of days ago with unrelenting gain, starting at RM 2.06 on Monday and closing today aroung RM 2.24
Laggard Southern Steel started from RM 1.60 on Monday and ended today at RM 1.74

Recommendation:
Buy Lion Div. Lion Ind. Southern Steel. Masteel
I'm still holding Ann Joo, buying into Lion Div, S Steel