Earnings Season Again. L&G,HapSeng,KSL.TGuan

L&G (nta 076, Qeps3.3/ 1.7/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 3.2c) posted a fairly good quarterly profit of 3.2 sen and if sustainable over the next few quarters, could see its shares price ascending to 70 sen..
HapSeng (173, 4.9/ 9.7/ 7.0/ 7.2/ 6.3) declares a Qeps of 6.3sen and dv of 10 sen goimg ex. 3rd July. This dv is an increase over the previous two half yearly dv of 8 sen. Expect to see share price reaching RM3.60
KSL (349, 12.4/ 17.3/ 17.7/ -2.7/ 15.8) with such a fantastic result should see shares price aimimg at RM2.70 similar with Crescendo. Unfortunately KSL has no indication of payimg any dividend...
TGuan (281, 5.2/ 5.1/ 10.5/ 6.0/ 8.3c) saw its shares price up from RM2.20 to 2.29 on the release of ite amazing Qeps of 8.3 sen.. Target RM2.80 ??

Gold goes ballistic. USD climbs.

Gold goes ballistic with an almost 4 percent gain to reach 1626 USD.

 US job data for May indicates addition of 69 k instead of the expected 158 k, prompting traders to bet on additional QE (which is positive for gold) when operation Twist ends in June ...

Gold trades for 1677 Aussie dollars 

Meanwhile commodities index CRB continues to slide to 268 on China slowing growth

USD climbs slowly from 3 Ringgit in March to touch  RM 3.20
Will it rise to 2009 high of RM 3.6 ..??
CPO fell below USD 1000; at 941

Commodities continue to drift lower ...

Gold seen drifting to 6, 9, 12 months low at 1535 USD. It has broken the long term rising support trendline at 1600 and is seen for the 3rd time attempting to break below the 1510 level .. Gold has since lost 8 percent since the beginning of May from 1660 level ..  

Aussie dollar exhibits similar pattern as it slides below parity, buying just 99 US cents .. Aussie has since fallen 8 percent from recent high ...  Both the Aussie and Gold are oversold ...

CRB index falling below October and December 2011 low of 294 ..

When you look at all these, it sure makes you wonder how come the Malaysian commodities prices, currencies and stocks have not corrected accordingly ..?

Commodities headed for violent correction again ..?

Gold plunges big time- from USD 1638 to 1580, a drop of 3.7 percent on renewed fears of Euro crises ( Greece political uncertainty, Spanish banks frailty, France new president fight against austerity) gripped investors ...This is bad news for gold investors as gold broke the uptrend line at 1620 ... And it could get even cheaper as gold struggles to find support ... < Er, good news for those aiming to buy gold at super low price with our strong Ringgit.  >

Commodity currency Aussie dollar continues to dive towards parity with the US dollar after federal government posted a budget surplus, signalling further rates cut may be on the table. Just a week ago RBA have knife cash/interest rate by 0.5 percent to 3.7           < Good for those funding kids studying  in Australia.  >

CRB over one year period showing the index falling from last year July highest to October lowest. Index seen sliding from recent high in March to current low ... Game over for commodities and its currencies ..? Are these the things to come for the Malaysian stocks market, cash interest rate cuts and its currency Ringgit .? I would have to say, YES, in the right sense of mind ...

Is it time to cash out ..?

Ringgit has strengthen against USD from 3.60 in the last 3 - 5 years to the current 3.06 as shown in the first chart.
Manufacturers who export/sell their goods in US dollars, repatriate their profits to Malaysia will get less Ringgit now and these are reflected in their earnings. So a weak dollar is negative for exporters.


For foreign investor holding US dollars three years ago when Ringgit was weak and Malaysian equities were cheap, it was the near perfect time to ploughed your money in.
Now if you invert the chart, you would see it as a typical pattern of most stock market charts, forming a double top. Is this the end of the super bull run or will it pull back violently before the next upleg ..?

In the face of uncertainty of global market, would you pull your money out from Malaysia now that your returns from equities would easily have doubled and your forex gain 20 % ..?
Or coupled with the impending general election which is definitely going to cause a lot of volatility and opportunities in the local stock market, would you now liquidate and wait on the sidelines ..?

BHP Billiton.

Commodity stock on a down trend.
BHP mining giant 1 year chart showing shares price sliding to USD69, testing January low of USD 64

Aud slides against Myr while Gold recovers

Aussie dollar slides against Ringgit, posting a weekly loss of 1.6 %
A weaker Aussie means it will take more to buy Xau (Gold)


Gold now sells for 1620 Aussie dollar







Gold climbing to USD 1713.
I'm taking a long position on gold at this level

Gold fell by 5 % as Bernake signal no further QE

Gold in US dollar took a hit as Fed Reserve chairman puts a brake on further QE.
Gold fell below USD 1700 but managed to recover to 1720 level.



Gold plunges from Aud 1660 to 1570.
Climbing to 1600 level

Hap Seng. HS Plant. Revised

HSC (nta 147, Q/Q 4.8/4.4/ 5.1 sen) Fv RM1.90
HSP (nta 228, Q/Q 7/ 7/ 9.5/ 8.3/ 6.6 sen) Fv RM3.10
HSC and HSP declare a dv of 4.7 sen and 10 sen respectively going ex. 27th Feb 2012
HSC gained 6 sen while HSP gained 8 sen today ...

Hap Seng. HS Plant. TDM. Kian Joo.QL

Here's some of the stocks I still like despite the run-up in their prices ...
HSC (nta 147, Q/Q 4.8/4.4) Fv RM1.80
HSP (nta 228, Q/Q 7/ 7/ 9.5/ 8.3) Fv RM3.10
TDM (nta 350, Q/Q 14.9/12.7/ 13.9/ 21.8) Fv RM6.00
KJC (nta 202, Q/Q 5.3/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.4) Fv RM2.55
THP (nta 115, Q/Q 8.7/ 4.3/ 6.4/ 6.5) Fv RM2.50
Accumulate all above on weakness (buy THP only in RM2.20-2.30 range)
QL Reso (nta 092, Q/Q 8.4/ 3.9/ 3.3/ 4.6) Fv RM 2.10
QL fully valued, see no reason to accumulate ... Sell on rally ...

China stocks falling

2 year chart of Shanghai Stocks CI seen struggling to keep afloat and breaking down to a two year low ... Short commodities firms that sell to China ...

New York: Ratings firm Fitch downgraded six major global banks on Thursday, citing increased challenges in the financial markets
Fitch lowered the long-term ratings on Bank of America and Goldman Sachs in the United States, British bank Barclays, French bank BNP Paribas, German bank Deutsche Bank and Swiss bank Credit Suisse.

Gold slides as dollar strength weighs

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Gold came under pressure on Monday, falling by as much as 2.0 percent after breaching a crucial level of support, as concern over the euro zone debt crisis encouraged investors to seek safety in the form of the U.S. dollar rather than bullion.

Spot gold was last down 1.7 percent on the day at $1,681.74 an ounce at 1007 GMT, having fallen to a low of $1,676.29 an ounce, its lowest since Nov. 25.

Traders and analysts said the break below $1,680 an ounce, the location of the uptrend that has been in place since the start of the year, accelerated the decline that was already in place given the near-0.8 percent rise in the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

Dollar strength tends to encourage non-U.S. investors to sell gold to lock in a higher profit in their own currencies. (Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Anthony Barker)

Legendary Jim Rogers' views

In an interview on Breakot, Jim Rogers shares his positions ...
1). Long selected commodities and currencies
2). Short emerging market stocks, US technology stocks and European stocks.

His logic behind the portfolio: if economy turns up, Rogers win on commodities scarcity.
And if economy remains weak, his short position will more than offset his long positions.

China scraps orders for up to 300,000 T of palm oil

BEIJING/KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 23 (Reuters) - China has cancelled orders for up to 300,000 tonnes of refined palm oil over the past month as some traders had over-booked cargoes and domestic prices remain lower than that of imports, Asian traders said on Wednesday.

The scrapped orders were for cargoes scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of 2012 when China celebrates Lunar New Year festival in late January with a week long public holiday -- a peak demand season, they said.

"It has been going on for some time, a month or so. There are really no profit margins for the Chinese importers now and they are getting out while they can. There is still time to buy later on," said a Malaysian trader dealing with China.

Benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped to a near two-week low of 3,128 Malaysian ringgit per tonne after the news, which signals demand could slow.

News of the cancellations come as China's factory sector shrank the most in 32 months in November, reviving worries the world's No.2 palm oil buyer may be skidding towards an economic hard landing that would weaken commodity demand.

Two Chinese traders said a major state-owned trading house had cancelled orders for some 100,000 tonnes of refined palm oil last week.

"It does not make sense to ship back palm oil as domestic prices are about 800 yuan to 1,000 yuan lower than imported price. It is better to wash out the cargo if you have not booked the vessel," said one of the traders.

But the trader added that imports in January to March next year would still be big at 500,000 tonnes each month. This year in the first quarter, China imported over 1 million tonnes, customs data show.

Malaysian traders said demand for palm oil will be strong as fears that a brewing La Nina weather could worsen the monsoon rains and limit production, spurring China to order fast to avoid another upswing in prices.

"It really depends on Dalian market prices because the prices have come under pressure from the global economic sentiment and the fact that China has been selling its state reserves to bring down prices," said another Malaysian trader.

"But with running down the reserves, there is an opportunity for demand to rise as China has to restock," the trader added. (Editing by Himani Sarkar)

Aussie continues down trend.

Commodities currency, Aussie buying 98.9 US cents.

Looks like trending down towards 0.95 level against the US dollar.

Alternative Investment. Gold. Platinum. Silver.

Here's a chart of gold on a 2 year frame, with daily prices currently staying above 30 and 200 day MA ...
You can pull similar 5, 8 and 10 year charts and they exhibit similar trends ...
Good entry point 1,550 ...
Platinum spot price (Xpt/Usd) tends to be volatile as shown recently on this 2 year frame chart, presenting a good opportunity to take a position at recent low of USD 1450 ...
Pull out a 5 year frame chart and you'll can see Pt peaks at USD2270

Silver plunged from recent high of USD 48/oz and is hovering at 34 level ...
Buying on dips below USD30 seems like a good tactic ...

Buy this metal: more precious than gold

This is absurd: platinum is now trading at USD 1533 spot price and it is now lower/ cheaper than gold at USD 1656. Ratio of platinum/gold is approximately 0.93 although platinum is much rare a commodity than gold.. If I remember correctly, it should be trading at ratio of 1.5 to 1.8 range...
I've always wanted to get my hand on a physical platinum 1 oz coin when it was trading at USD 800 - 1000 range two/three years ago but unfortunately there weren't any legitimate seller in the Malaysian metal market. So if you're in Australia, USA or Europe, this is simply a must-grab physical item..!

Trading Options. Aud/Myr. Xau/Aud. Gbp/Myr

AUD/MYR hovering at 3.09 from a recent rebound of 3.06
AUD may revisit recent low of 3.06 if selling of commodities continue within the week so it's best to stay at the sideline or buy the option at strike of 3.00 if possible...
If you're already holding AUD, then consider doing an XAU/AUD option swap at strike/exercise price of 1600 or 1500 level as XAU/AUD is currently trading at 1700.

Meanwhile GBP/MYR has soared to high of 5.00 from below 4.80 within four weeks..

Fair value changes with perception volatility

Fair value and PER of share prices of companies changes very quickly in differing market conditions so I would not utilise it as the only tool for buying a company stock. Nevertheless it's still pretty good indicator of whether the company shares you hold in your portfolio has become overpriced wrt. its earnings, market outlook/ projections and regional peers..

Meanwhile a look at some of the companies mentioned by friends....
QL Reso ( nta 92, Q/Q 3.9/ 3.3 sen ). It's overpriced, trading at RM 2.60 and would be one of the stocks I'll go short on. Fair value RM 1.60 to 1.80
Supermax (nta 212, Q/Q 11/10/ 7/ 6 sen). Trading close to PE 11 at RM 2.80, rebounding from RM 2.30 range last week. Worth a nibble below RM 2, screaming buy at RM 1.20 w/ PE 5
HS Plant (nta 230, QQ 5/ 7/ 7/ 9 sen ) Trading at RM 2.40, it recovers everytime it plunges to RM 2 level... This is one company worth looking at when share price plunges below RM 2. Whack hard at RM 1.50 range...

Commodities prices slip

Price of CPO dropped from RM3,200 to RMRM3,150 losing abt RM50.
Commodity currency AUD slipped from 3.22 to 3.176
Precious metal gold plunges from USD 1,544 to USD 1,521
Commodities stock price will tend to drift lower. For those who are keen to get back into our plantation stocks, wait for CPO price to hit RM3,000 mark, AUD at 3.08 and gold below 1,500
I'm waiting to accumulate HSP at 2.40 - 2.50, THP at 1.80 - 1.90, TDM 2.70 - 2.80 as I have completely sold of all my plantation stocks when CPO prices retreated from near peak of RM3,800.