Remember the LORD for it is he who gives you the ability to produce wealth and so confirms his covenant... Deut. 8:18

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

G20 to cut deficits by 2013

G20 countries vow to slash their budget deficits by half by 2013 and stabilses the government debt/GDP ratio by 2016. That's the general consensus reached by leaders of the G20 forum in Canada recently.
This means less and lesser Gov't spending on infrastructure, reduced priming of the economy by quantitative easing (money supply or printing) and gradual withdrawal of subsidies, welfare, healthcare, grants.
But reduction on spending will impact growth and lower growth means lesser revenue for the Gov't. Slower growth will hamper employment , lower wages resulting in more labour union strikes and street riots. This is not positive for both the global market and Gov't.
Gov't may increase rates for tax, duties and tariff which negate regional competitiveness and thus making exports expensive.
Simply bad news...

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Glovemakers Earnings Review

Top Gloves (Q/Q/latest Qeps 22/23/ latest 21 sen, nta RM 3.37) Earnings Q/Q flat over 3 quarters. Fair value Fv with annualised PER 10 = 21 x 4 x 10 = RM8.40
Supermax (Q/Q/ latest Qeps 15/16/ 19 sen, nta RM2.33) Earnings up but is it sustainable..?. Fv = 7.60 Revised Fv =7.60/1.25 = RM6.10 adjusted after 25% bonus issue.
Kossan (Q/Q/ latest Qeps 9/15/ 19sen, nta RM2.33) Earnings up. Fv =RM 7.60
Latexx (Q/Q/latest Qeps 7/9/ 10.5 sen, nta RM0.99) Earnings up. Fv = RM 4.20
Adventa (Q/Q/latest Qeps 3.7/6.4/ 4.6 sen, nta RM 1.36) Earnings decline. Fv = RM 1.90
Current prices: Top Gloves RM13.00 Supermax RM5.90 Kossan RM7.60 Latexx RM3.60 Adventa RM3.20

Friday, June 11, 2010

Strategy : Dividend stocks

Save yourself some stress, buy into dividend counters.
My strategy for next 3 months = focus on dividend stocks.
Looking to buy on dips: TM, Boustead, HapSeng Cons., HS Plant, HunzPty, TDM, Efficien
A few others caught my attention: Manulife, WTHorse, Ascotec, FPI

My current portfolio: Axiata, Boustead, Digi, Esso, Efficien, GenM, HapSeng, HSPlant, Hubline, Hunza, IGB, IJM, LionInd, QL Reso, TDM, THPlant, TM
Sold all of Supermax, looking to switch to GenM, TM and Axiata (three of cheapest priced blue chips, not necessary in value). I'm buying to hold for 10 years (trading on price volatility), seriously.
I'll be watching price action of construction, materials, property stocks.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Markets tumble on weak jobs data

US stocks felled sharply on Friday after May payrolls indicates private hiring was lower than expected, raising fears of the strength of the economic recovery.

Labor department reported 431,000 jobs was added to the US economy but of that total, 411,000 was hired for US Census (jobs which are short term and temporal): falling short of the 513,000 expected by Wall Street.
This shows that there is no much economic ability to generate ongoing job growth and that raises question of sustainability of the recovery, " said Joseph Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus in Yardley Pennsylvania .