Thursday, May 28, 2009
Kinsteel tumbled from 91 to 87 sen bf closing at 89. It should find support at 82 - 85 sen range.
E&O fall from 81 sen to 76. Let's see if it will break below 70 sen.
KNM still holding well but I suspect it will also slide to 75 sen.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Dividend declared = 1.7 sen tax exempted.
Dividend yield from its record = 2 %.
So "fair price" support level = 1.7/0.02 = 85 sen
Current price is at 92 sen, about 10 % from 85 sen
So you can buy at 82, sell 89 or whichever the market gives you at a profit.
Strongest support range 70 - 76 sen which is 10 % below the "fair price."
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Monday, May 25, 2009
Revenue, however, rose to RM24.37 billion from RM22.30 billion previously, on the back of higher average selling price during the first half of the calendar year, it said in a statement to Bursa Malaysia today.
It said profit for the next financial year, however, would be impacted by fluctuations in petroleum product costs following uncertainties in the international oil prices and the global economy. The marketing arm of Petroliam Nasional Bhd operates 900 service stations, of which four are hyper-stations and more than 570 are equipped with the retail convenience store, Kedai Mesra.
The company said its industrial and property divisions were recovering, but its plantation business faltered due to the drop in crude palm prices and lower production as a result of biological tree stress.
Sime Darby, valued at about US$11.8 billion, said January-March net profit fell to RM165.68 million from RM1.11 billion a year earlier.
IOI Corp, Malaysia’s No.2 palm oil producer, said its January-March net profit slumped 97 per cent on the fall in prices, weaker output and foreign currency losses.
Singapore-listed Wilmar earlier this month said net profit grew 11 per cent as higher refining and trading margins offset lower revenues, and said it was optimistic about sustained demand from China and India.
Malaysian palm oil firms are more vulnerable to falling CPO prices than Singapore rivals as they are mostly operating in the upstream industries that supply palm oil to refineries.
So I did a simple maths to estimate Resorts "fair price," based on dividend declared of 4 sen. Assuming Resorts recorded dividend yield of 3% and pay 4 sen twice a year, "fair price"= 8 sen/0.03 = 267. So fair price of Resorts is approx. RM2.67
Closing at RM2.80 today, it's just about 5% over fair price. I think Resorts will go higher given the liquidity in the rally. It's liquidity over the fundamentals in short term trading and scalping. Enjoy the ride on the coat-tails of the big boys who has the liquidity...
OSK rated Resorts a buy with TP RM3.25
Resorts World Bhd surged 8.1 per cent to RM2.79, the steepest gain since July 20, 2007, after OSK Research raised its rating amid speculation its parent, Asia’s biggest casino operator, may invest in a unit of MGM Mirage.
Genting Bhd, which owns 47 per cent of Resorts World, jumped 6.7 per cent to RM5.55
OSK upgraded Resorts World’s stock rating to “buy” and increased its target price to RM3.25 from RM2.58, saying were cheap valuation compared with Genting. Resorts World “had always traded at a 10 per cent to 20 per cent premium to Genting as it is indeed the group’s main earnings and cash-generative outfit,” OSK analyst Keith Wee said in a note to clients today.
Investing in MGM Grand Macau “could certainly pave the way for the group’s long-awaited entry into Macau’s gaming market,” he added.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Financial Index up 2.3% led by Maybank
Someone highlighted to me that small plantation counter TDM paying gross dividend of 14 sen (net 10.5 sen), ex 23rd June- pay 21st July.
At share price of RM1.75 that's a neat 8%, better than ASM, ASW.
Mkt cap = RM380 m. Net profit = RM101 m. Shares Issued = 218 m.
Therefore EPS = 46 sen. Dvd = 14 sen.
Fundamentals: PE ratio = 4. NA = RM2.73
This is one buy and hold counter to place in your core portfolio. And sleep well.
Take the dividend year after year.
Compare this with my core holding of TH Plant, final dividend 7.5 sen, ex 6th May- paid 20th May
Mkt cap = RM 814 m. Net profit = RM83 m. Shares Issued = 487 m.
Therefore EPS = 17 sen. Dvd = 14 sen.
Fundamentals: PE ratio = 10. NA = RM 1.64
At current price of RM1.68, dividend yield = 14/168 = 8.3% gross
HS Plant. Final dvd 5 sen goes ex 1st June- pay15th June
Mkt cap = RM 1800 m. Net profit = RM130 m. Shares issued 800 m.
Therefore EPS = 16 sen. Dvd = 10 sen tax exempted.
Fundamentals: PE ratio = 14. NA = RM2.06
At current price of RM2.27, dividend yield (10/227) = 4.4% net
which is higher than bank FD
I received in my email an article by Rick Pendergraft pointing out the three levels of resistance that might keep S&P in check for next few months.
One of the striking thing on the chart is the symmetrical move from the neckline to the head and from the head back to the headline. Each of these moves lasted nine weeks. It doesn't have to be that well defined to fit as an inverse head and shoulders pattern but the formation is obvious.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Thursday, May 14, 2009
E & O continue to fall, losing 4% from 87.5 sen to 84 sen. SP Setia, Sunrise, IGB all posted losses in their shares price.
Local steel counters Kinsteel, Lion Ind registered 9% and 10 % slide to 83sen and RM1.27 respectively. Ann Joo and Southern Steel shares price dropped by 2% and 5% respectively.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
I continue to like this counter because it still has more upside compared to other property stocks. At 91 sen, it's about half of its highest RM1.80
Its low PER is attractive at 4
Monday, May 11, 2009
Other counters closed with lower gains. Ann Joo + 3.7%, Southern Steel + 2.4%, Lion Ind + 3.8% and Perwaja +4.6%. Considering PER, Ann Joo (pe 8), S Steel (pe 7), Lion Ind (pe 1) and Perwaja (pe 8) may be a better buy than Kinsteel (pe 15).
Friday, May 8, 2009
If you look at current price, it's still half of 52 weeks high price. So I think it has more upside but I could be dead wrong. Anyway, I'm accumulating KNM (RM0.73) and KINSTEEL (RM0.83) until price action reverses. I'm hoping they'll surge past the RM1.00 like Lion Ind (RM1.20). Ann Joo is also my favourite play with good potential earnings.
If you had bought in earlier, continue to accumulate on price weakness. Strategy- buy to average up.
If you had not bought in earlier, buy 1 lot. If uptrend continues, buy to average up. If trend changes, wait for price to recover and sell.
In this forceful rally, I don't expect a sudden violent correction within one day that will bring you huge loss but a gradual correction within a few days. Watch the signal- weak price action over 3 days or downtrend in 3 straight days. Then we know market is consolidating for a new breakout or breakdown.
These counters and that of property/construction counters are the most to advance in a rally.
If you have lost money last year and wants to recoup your loss in the medium/ long term, consider investing (not trade) in steel, cement, property, construction sectors. I really hope you could recover your loss within 12 months.
One property counter to watch is E & O.
Its 52 weeks high is RM1.80 and currently trading RM0.75 and may take RM1.50 if rally persists. There are many others; IJM Land, Sunrise, YNH so pick your choice.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Commodity sector generally has dropped to a quarter of its highest but has since recovered. It's still not to late to invest in this sector as it has more room on the upside ( two third to highest). You can choose to invest and take profit when your entry price doubles.
Steel counter locals, Ann Joo, Southern Steel, Kinsteel, Lion Ind similarly has recovered from a quarter of their highest price. Current prices of these counters still has upside of about 2.6 - 2.8 times. Highest/Current price of Ann Joo 4.10/1.60 Kinsteel 1.70/0.65 Lion Ind 3.10/1.10
Watch Ann Joo take 1.80 and Kinsteel take 0.87, next week maybe...