Remember the LORD for it is he who gives you the ability to produce wealth and so confirms his covenant... Deut. 8:18

Saturday, July 25, 2009

IOI Corp Stock Still Pricey To Me

I was asked if IOI Corp is a good stock to buy and hold for short/med term......
My personal opinion.........: No, not yet.... But for active trading gains--> yes..
IOI historic dividend payout for year 2008 = 17 sen
My criteria of fair price to pay for stock would be they generate at least a 5 % return dividend yield, so my fair price = 17 sen/ 0.05 = 340 sen or RM 3.40
This would be the price I'm willing to pay for the purchase, or RM 3.70 max
Earnings of IOI = 36 sen, so P/E = 340/36 = 9.4 (I'm comfortable with PE < 12)

But if you think earnings and dividends of IOI may increase in the near future, you may consider your purchase when stock price is at 17 sen/0.04 = 425 sen or RM 4.24 (PE abt 12)
Once earnings and dividends payout increases, stock price will appreciate..

IOI stock price recently closed at RM 4.86 (PE = 14)
Assuming you buy at this price to hold short/med term, your dividend yield may be 17 sen/486 = 0.035 or 3.5 % provided earnings remain 36 sen.
But looking at 2009 dividend payout ending June = 6 sen, and with the rights issue to raise cash, they may face difficulty matching 2008 dividend amount. This may mean that IOI is facing problem with earnings and thus stock price will drop. Assuming earnings drop to 18 sen, dvd payout is 9 sen, therefore P/E = 4.86/0.18 = 27 (high) and dvd yield = 9/486 = 1.9 %

Not a stock buy and hold for dividend. A stock for current short term trade, yes.
There're better stocks to buy for dividend play.

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