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Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Euro/US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Weekly bars: After a 3 week advance, the EURUSD should resume its long term decline. To review; since 1.60, price has declined in a series of 1st and 2nd waves. Most recently, the rally from 1.2475 is wave ii of 3. As long as price is below 1.3740, anticipate a break below 1.2327 and much lower in wave iii of 3.

Daily bars: The fractal nature of the market has been on full display in the EURUSD since the top last year at 1.60. There are 5 waves down and 3 waves up at 2 degrees of trend. The ‘1-2’ down from 1.4723 is waves 1 and 2 of the next 5 wave decline. At this point, price should remain below 1.3586. Former support at 1.3320 is potential resistance.

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