Remember the LORD for it is he who gives you the ability to produce wealth and so confirms his covenant... Deut. 8:18

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Resolving R.Sawit

Someone asked if R. Sawit is a good buy ..?
This is what I got in early 2011 before they embark on the acquisition trail and recent issuing of rights shares with bonus shares...
R. Sawit (nta 61 sen, 3.8 sen)
CPO yield/ ha = 160,ooo mt x 0.2145 /16,423 ha = 34, 320/16,423 = 2.09 mt/ ha which is below the industry standard of 4 mt/ ha..
Earning Sensitivity = 34,320 mt/ 156,600,000 shares = 0.219 mt/ 1000 shares
Every RM 100/mt increase in CPO price => + 2.19 sen EPS accretive

From R Sawit's current website on 14th Nov.:
Total plantation land 91,793 ha
FY2010, ffb = 235,111 mt and CPO = 0.2145 x 235,111 = 50,431 mt
Assume planted acreage in Dali's post of 49 300 ha,
CPO yield/ ha = 50431/49300 = 1.02 mt/ha which indicates either the oil palm trees are very young or the additional landbanks are seated on peat soil.

Issued shares = 1,230,000,000
Let's derive our Earning Sensitivity for R.Sawit;
Annual CPO yield FY 2010/ 1000 shares = 50,451 mt/ 1,230,000 = 0.04 mt / 1000 shares
Every RM 100/ mt increase in CPO, then annualised EPS => + 0.4 sen accretive.
Try compare this earning sensitivity with THP (1.9 sen), IJMP (1.5 sen), HSP (1.7 sen), Cepat (1.2 sen), NPC (2.4 sen), Kwantas (2.9 sen), TSH (4.3 sen), Glenealy (5.4 sen)

3 comments:

Mirai E Mukatte said...

So what is the fair value for rsawit??

Remnant 888 said...

I would estimate Fv to be between 70 to 80 sen for this year until I see further Q eps..

You can also calculate est. Fv by taking their next quarter earning per share, multiply it by 4 to obtain their annual EPS. Then apply a factor of 10 (PER 10).

Similar for all plantation companies, generally.. Happy investing..!

Mirai E Mukatte said...

Tq for the info..:)