KLCI floats at 1800 range: Bearish

It's been two months since my last posting and I'm still bearish about the Malaysian stock market. Sure we did see the KLCI index peaked again in late April to 1850 but since then has tumbled to slightly below 1800..

I have been reducing my stock holding aggressively and now sit on an investment portfolio of 30% stocks and 70% cash. The liquidity will sure comes in handy should there be a global stocks sell off or a severe and violent market correction..

Previous months and recent trades includes Hap Seng (overvalued at RM4.30), KSL (still like this one at 1.80), Tambun (earnings will be affected), Scientex (still ok at RM6.80 range), Paramount (neutral at RM1.62 with 5c dv in June), Luxchem (overvalued at 1.12), Maybank (positive at RM9.30), Insas (undervalued at 92c), L&G and IGBreit (positive) ...

I like Maybank at this price; RM8.90

Maybank (nta 546, Qeps 20/ 19.6/ 18.1/ 17.5/ 17.6 sen) currently hovering at RM8.90

Maybank previous dividends of  55 sen (31c + 24c) if it persists will offers a dv yield of 6.2 %

Hmmm, quite decent for a bluechip counter..

Sold all my telcos shares in Maxis and DIGI (which pays between dv yield of 4.3 to 4.8 %) to accumulate Maybank..

Insas (nta 180, Qeps 8.9/ 6.2/ 4.6/ 4.9 sen) did surge to RM1.20 strong resistance level before diving on announcement of its recent Qeps of 3.6 sen

Sold most shares above RM1.15

Currently trading at 94 sen, worth nibbling between the range of 90 sen to 86 sen strong support...

L&G (nta 57, Qeps 3.9/ 4.0/ 3.2/ 4.5/ 7.9 sen) looks like a good counter to trade at 50 sen level

Recent trades:

Sold all of my shares in TM, Maxis and DIGI

Sold two-thirds of shares in Tambun above RM2.14 , buying back on weakness in shares price currently trading at RM1.80

Sold some shares in HapSeng, KSL, Paramon, PJ Dev, ThongGuan Ind., L&G, PavReit, IGBReit,

Insas. CMMT. KSL. HapSeng. YTLReit

If there's a stock I would  invest a lot of money in, it would have to be Insas (nta 180, Qeps 8.9/ 6.2/ 4.6/ 4.9c)
Accumulating from 98 sen, RM1.00 and RM1.05
The movement 86/88c -> 96/98c -> 106/108c -> 116/118c.???
I think it's gonna move to RM1.19 strong resistance (former strong support).

Why the dip in CMMT stock price to RM1.43.?
CMMT (nta 123, Qeps 6.5/ 2.1/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 5.9/ 2.0) pays 4.5 and 4.53c as dividends
Therefore 9.03/143 = > 6.3 % dy

KSL shares price has surged to RM4.70 while HapSeng keeps going up to almost RM4.50
Lets see if HapSeng will increase their half yearly dividend from 10 sen ...
Luxchem (nta115, Qeps 3.8/ 3.3/ 4.6/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 4.6) shares price rose to RM1.80 on proposal of bonus shares issue
YTLReit in news on improving earnings. Anyone who misses out on buying other REITS can still accumulate this one as YTLReit pays 6.9 sen on current price of RM1.03 (dy = 6.7%)

Telco DIGI. Maxis. Property Tambun

DIGI posted its latest Qeps of 6.2 sen and a dividend of 6.26 sen going ex on 5th November.
Looking at the six quarters of earning (Qeps 4.9/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.2) and dividend (Qdps 4.8/ 5.7/ 7.0/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.26), it certainly look like the earnings and the dividends are stagnant; not going to improve a lot.. Currently trading at RM5.95 with a trailing PE of 595/25.9 = 23 and dy of 25.9/595 = 4.3%, it certainly doesn't look very attractive holding DIGI for dividends..

Maxis has not announce its Qeps but looking at previous Qeps 7.0/ 6.3/ 3.9/ 6.4/ 5.9 and Qdps 8/ 8/ 16/ 8/ 8c, its now trading at RM6.62 with a traling PE = 662/ 22.5 =29 and dy = 32/662= 4.8% assuming Maxis will reduce its annual dividends from 40 to 32 sen,,

Prefering REITs now over telco: DIGI or Maxis which has PE ratio > 23
Will accumulate REIT and sell telco on strength

Selling Tambun shares (nta 086, Qeps 4.5/ 5.2/ 6.1/ 6.4/ 6.3/ ??) trading at trailing PE 224/ 24 = 9 with dy = 6.6/ 224 = 2.9%

KSL. Daiman. Paramount.

KSL goes ballistic from RM3 since lasst posting, up and up towards the RM4 mark..Is there no stopping KSL..?
Another property player Daiman shares price seems to be going nowhere..
Accumulating .....
Paramount (nta 221, 3.2/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 5.7/ latest 5.4 sen) posted an impressive Qeps of 5.4 sen
Declares an interim dv of 2.5 sen going ex. 28th August.
Price has moved from 1.55 to current 1.75 range.. Trending towards RM1.90 ??

KSL continues uptrend. Tambun. PJDev. Glomac.

KSL shares price continues to rise to new high hitting RM3.00 level
Over a month it has appreciated more than 30 % from RM2.30 range
Was accumulating from 2.30 range, 2.60+ level.
Even at 2.80 yesterday I was buying: And contra off at RM3.00 today
Best performer of the month in my portfolio...

Tambun continues to inch up from 2.20 to 2.50 range registering >13 % gain in price
PJ Dev (nta 221) continues to be in the limelight and soon will hit the RM2 mark
Glomac shares price has gone from 1.09 to 1.20: Sold too early, wait for it to come down at 1.07
KPS shares price has tumbled to RM1.50
Reits of IGB, Pavilion, Sunway at 1.30, 1.40, 1.43 levels

Continues to accumulate TA, KSL, trade Malton.. Waiting for SymLife, KPS, DRB, YTL, Pantech..

Crescendo. Paramount

Crescendo (nta319, Qeps 9.2/ 12.7/ 21.4/ 13.1/ 2.4c) reported a Qeps of 2.4 sen, a 70% drop in earning compared to a similar quarter last year.
Pays 16c annually.. Declares a dv of 9c going ex. 8th Aug.
Buying in....

Paramount will be doing a rights issue at price of RM1.10 per RI on basis of 1 rights share for every 4 existing @ entitlement date 8th July 2014

Recent Trades:

Sold shares in WCT, Crescendo, MKH, KPS and Efficient..

Sold completely all YTLP and waiting for another plunge..

Let's watch and see if KPS (nta 222, Qeps 4.9/ 46/ -2.7/ 4.7) ever fall back to RM1.55 range

Decent gain from recent trades but not an awful lot.

Bought shares in KSL, HapSeng, IGB Reit, SunReit, PavReit and Malton..

Missed taking  position in Pantech

The following shares price rises on positive news of its landbanks and its steady recurring income:

Daiman rises from RM3.50 to RM3.80 (go read The Daily Edge's article on 17th June)

KSL up from RM2.17 to RM2.28 (ref. The Edge's article on KSL dd 23rd June). Should accumulate more of KSL shares..

Tambun moves from RM2.08 to RM2.18 today.

Scientex (nta 310, Qeps 13.7/ 13.8/ 13.3/ 15.3/16.4) declares a dv of 8c going ex. 17th July

It should cross the RM6.00 resistance easily when its second dividend is announced..

HapSeng continues its ascent from RM3.26 to RM3.56 over a two weeks period

It has a dv of 10c going ex 3rd July.. 

If it can keep up the half yearly dv of 10c, share price could hit RM4

My position in Reits has made some decent gain with SunReit giving the best return at RM1.45

Waiting for PavReit to catch up from RM1.37

IGB Reit is a good buy at this range of RM1.22

Earnings Season: Paramount

Paramount (nta 221, Q/Qeps 4.4/ 3.2/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 5.8 sen) latest Qeps at 5.8 sen is pretty good..
Did anyone realises that its shares price plunge from RM1.64 to RM1.48 on Friday but have since recovered to RM1.60 on Monday...
RM1.90 seems like a target price. Paying dv of 5.5 c gong ex on 11th June..
Guess everyone was watching the shares price plunges of and buying in YTL@ RM1.63, YTLP@ RM1.50, Padini @ RM1.90 and Hap Seng @ RM3.09...

Earnings Season Again. L&G,HapSeng,KSL.TGuan

L&G (nta 076, Qeps3.3/ 1.7/ 3.9/ 4.1/ 3.2c) posted a fairly good quarterly profit of 3.2 sen and if sustainable over the next few quarters, could see its shares price ascending to 70 sen..
HapSeng (173, 4.9/ 9.7/ 7.0/ 7.2/ 6.3) declares a Qeps of 6.3sen and dv of 10 sen goimg ex. 3rd July. This dv is an increase over the previous two half yearly dv of 8 sen. Expect to see share price reaching RM3.60
KSL (349, 12.4/ 17.3/ 17.7/ -2.7/ 15.8) with such a fantastic result should see shares price aimimg at RM2.70 similar with Crescendo. Unfortunately KSL has no indication of payimg any dividend...
TGuan (281, 5.2/ 5.1/ 10.5/ 6.0/ 8.3c) saw its shares price up from RM2.20 to 2.29 on the release of ite amazing Qeps of 8.3 sen.. Target RM2.80 ??

Anomaly: IJM Plant cf. HS Plant

The shares pricing of these counters has bothered me quite a while:
IJM Plant (nta 172, Qeps 2.8/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 6.5sen) When assigned with a PE of  15 over the average of last two Qeps my fair value Fv would be 309
HS Plant (nta 239, Qeps 2.5/ 1.0/ 3.8/ 5.5/ 5.3sen) Fv 324 (assumed PE 15)
Swk Plant (nta 211, Qeps 2.7/ 0.5/ 5.7/ 5.4/ 6.4sen) Fv 354 (assumed PE 15)
Annual dividends of IJMP, HSP, SwkP is 7, 10 and 8 sen respectively.

Current share price of  IJMP is at RM 3.64 and is priced at PE = 364/20.6 = 18
Whereas current share price of HSP at RM 2.77 has a PE of 12
And SwkPlt at RM 2.67 carries a PE of 12.
Which tells me that HSP and SwkPlt share prices have a lot of catching up to do...

KLCI supported at 1803. Earning season again in Nov

KLCI slid but remain supported at 1803.
Stock companies are expected to release their quarterly earnings in the next week or two and will provide fresh catalyst for shares price movement.. A game of anticipation is on the way....

Recent profitable trades : -
Daiman, E&O, HapSeng, KSL, Luxchem,
Maxis, Pantech, Paramon, PJ Dev, Scientex, Supermax,
TA, TDM, YTLPwb
Likes Daiman, HapSeng. KSL, Luxchem, PJDev, TA

Recent unprofitable trades : -
IGBReits, Ivory, Johotin, MKLand, Tropicana

My watchlist : -
TA, TAGB, Insas, YTLPwb

Earnings again. KLCI recovering.....

KLCI recovers from last week low of 1660 to close at 1727 this Friday..
Good recovery and stocks that attracted my attention are Johor- related stocks, viz., Daiman, KSL, Scientex and other stocks like Tambun, E&O, TM, Maxis and Maybank.

Recent earnings declared:
Hap Seng (nta 163, Q/Qeps 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8/ 4.9/ 9.7)
HapSeng Has increased their dv payout every half yearly from 4.5c to 6c and recent was 8c
Pays decent dv > 6%
HS Plant (235, 3.9/ 4.5/ 3.7/ 2.5/ 1.0) declares a 3c dv going ex. 30 Aug
Earnings of plantation stocks in general still remain weak

Tambun (076, 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.5) paid a 3.3c dv ex. 27th inst
TomyPak (099, 5/ 4/ 3.6/ 3.2/ 3.2) declares 2c dv going ex. 13 Sept
Tomypak pays 2c every quarter
Paramon (209. 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 3.2) declares a 2.5c going ex. 6 Sept
Luxchem (107, 4.4/ 3.1/ 4.6/ 3.5/ 3.8) declares a 3c dv going ex. 5 Sept
Pays decent dividend yield > 6% +

Maybank (512, 18.6/ 19.1/ 17.3/ 17.9/ 18.2) plans to pay 22.5c dv
Dv payout has decreased from 33c..
TM (191, 9.7/ 8.4/ 10.2/ 6/ 6) declares a 9.8c dv going ex. 10 Sept
Dv payout remains..
Daiman (489, 4.9/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 14.8/ 7.5) declares a 12c dv going ex. 5 Dec
KSL (316, 6.5/ 11/ 10/ 12.4/ 17.3)
Scientex (272, 10.9/ 11.6/ 11.9/ 13.7)
Why is KSL at RM 2 while Scientex is hovering in the RM 5 range..?

CPO price continues to tumble

CPO price continues to slide below USD 700 (RM 2230).
This is not conducive for the earnings of our local planters and is the reason why quarterly earnings have been plunging ... Read the full report below :-
Palm Oil Tumbles to Lowest Since 2009 as Global Supplies Climb
Providing more exposure to plantation stocks
Cepatwawasan 2Q profit falls 46% yoy on lower palm oil prices
Cepat at 94c (nta 132, Q/Qeps 1.7/ 1.9/ 1.1/ 1.2/ latest 0.9 sen ) PE= 94/5.1= 18 which is on the high side

Earnings Earnings Earnings. KLCI surges to 1776

UEML (nta 128, Qeps 1.3/ 2.5/ 2/ 4.7/ 4.9) Dv 3c going ex.23rd Jun
E&O (nta 126, Qeps 3.8/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 2.4/ 3.4) *** Expect to pay dv 4.5c
MahSing (153, 7.2/7.1/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 7.9)
Hua Yang (169, 9.1/ 11.4/ 15.2/ 10.0/ 8.6) Expect to pay dv 8.2c
Daiman (481, 7.1/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 14.8) ***
Tropicana (254, 2.7/ 8.4/ 12.5/ 8.3/ 5.5) ***
PJDev (208, 2.3/ 3.5/ 1.5/ 3.8/ 3.5) ***
Asas (215, 4.8/ 6.3/ 2.8/ 0.4/ 2.8) Dv 5c going ex. 1st July

TomyPak (098, 3.2/ 5/ 4/ 3.6/ 3.2) Dv 2c going ex.11th Jun
Johotin (173, 5.2/ 7.5/ 11.1/ 7.4/ 6 ) Dv 4.2c ging ex.3rd July
KJC (219, 6.1/ 4.1/ 6.2/ 10/ 6.9) Dv 6.25c going ex.20th Jun14

MPHB (249, 5.9/ 9.4/ 5.2/ 3.5/ 10.5) Dv 5c going ex.25th Jun
MBB (514, 17.6/ 18.6/ 19.1/ 17.3/17.9)
Boustead (453, 14/ 4.2/ 7.5/ 14.6/ 9.7) Dv 7.5c
Kulim (339, 5.6/ 163/ 5/ -103, 27.5)
TDM (517, 7.5/ 3.9/ 16.2/ 14/ 5.8) Paid dv 22c on 27th May

Happy investing ...

What To Buy (Amongst Others) If Our Market Plunges...

Made some profit on past weeks trading GenM, Maybank, SPSetia, HapSeng.. Missed out on some active counters cos' I was super busy for past months studying some other investment instruments..
Still, stocks remain my passion due to its liquidity and trading ease..

Some of the counters that I was lookin at in the previous weeks:
MPHB (239, 5.9/ 9.4/ 5.2/ 3.5) Paid a 5c dv
HapSeng (161, 3.9/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8) Paid a 6c dv
HSPlant (236, 5.4/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 3.7) Paid a 5c dv
TomyPak (095, 3.2/ 5/ 3.9/ 3.6) Paid a 2c dv
Luxchem (105, 4.9/ 4.4/ 3.1/ 4.5) Dv of 5c going ex on 29th May

YTL (125, 3.9/ 2.9/ 4/ 2.5)
PJDev (203, 2.8/ 2.3/ 3.5/ 1.5)
SPSetia (201, 4/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 6.3) Paid a 9c dv
MahSing (141, 4.9/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 6.6)
UOADev (165, 12/ 3/ 9/ 6.8/5.6) Paid a 12c dv
E&O (122, 3.8/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 2.4)
Dijaya (260, 2.7/ 8.4/ 12.6/ 8.3)
Ivory (082, 1.9/ 7.2/ 0.4/ 0)
Tambun (072, 4.1/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.6) Paid 3.3c dv
B'stead (450, 18.6/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 7.5/ 14) Paid a 7.5c dv

Maxis (097, 12/ 7.6/ 6.2/ 5.9/ 5) Paid a 8c dv last mth. Another 8c ex. 14th May
DIGI (03, 4/ 4/ 4/ 3.2) Paid a 2.5c dv
TM (183, 16.7/ 7/ 9.7/ 8.4/ 10.2) Expecting a dv of 12.2c
GenM (232, 4.8/ 8.8/ 3.4/ 7.9) Expecting a dv of 5c
Maybank (500/ 17.6/ 18.6/ 19.1/ 17.3) Expecting a dv of 33c

TDM (503, 7.5/ 3.9/ 16.2/ 14) making large move today, from RM4.2 to RM4.50
Declaring a 22c dv with proposed bonus issue 1:5 and shares split division of 1 into 5 shares of 20sens each.

 

GenM. HS Plant. Maxis. TM. MWE.

GenM (nta 226, Q/Q 5.5/ 6.1// 6.2/ 4.8/ 8.8sen latest) Qeps improved.
Share price surged from RM3.30 to 3.53 last week. Dv 3.8 sen going ex. on 26th Sept

HS Plant (nta 234, QQ 9.5/ 8.3/ 6.6// 5.4/ 3.9 sen) Qeps of plantation companies generally weak
Dv 6 sen going ex. 12th Sept

Maxis (nta 098, QQ 7.3/ 7.2/ 12/ 7.6/ 6.2 sen) Latest Qeps declined
Announced Dv 8 sen ex. on 12th Sept

TM (nta 234, QQ 9.5/ 8.3/ 16.7/ 7/ 9.7 ) Latest Qeps improved on HSBB Unifi
Dv 9.8 sen going ex. 12th Sept

MWE (nta 211, QQ 5.3/ 5.4/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.1sen) Qeps flat
Dv 6 sen ex. 5th Sept

Telcos. Digi. Maxis.

Looks like there's no stopping Digi as its share prices continue to edge up in the month of August. After a two weeks climb from RM4.50 at the beginning of the month,  the share settled at RM5.00 per piece with a gain of 50 sen or  more than 11 percent.
I'm amazed by the ascent : in such a rapid movement of almost 1 percent per day session that I quickly accumulated Digi shares, almost daily ...

What if you have missed out on this mini rally in Digi ..?
Buy some now but be prepared to average down if market turns against you ...

Maxis share prices made similar decent gain of 40 sen ( more than 6 percent <= 6.80/ 6.40) in the same two weeks period ... Phew I was right about this one when I asked some friends to buy at RM6.30 - 6.40 range and hold ...
Maxis is expected to announce its earning next week. If earnings improved with another 8 sen dividend, then watch it surpass RM 7.00 mark. Else share price may tumble.
And that's when we will be picking the shares again ...

Watch other telcos : TM and Axiata ...

Profitable Trading Ideas : Short term

A few counters to trade for profits:
1) Johotin
2) Tomypak
3) Luxchem
4) Latexx

Very Basics of Good Company

What companies interest Remnant the most ..?
1. Earnings stability (or predictability)
2. Dividends ( or growth )
In summary, companies that are profitable and rewards its shareholders with growth or dividends

Two very basic criteria of good companies:
1). Companies whose earnings are positively stable or predictable...
It's wonderful to have companies making profits quarter after quarter and year after year
growing and adding to its cash pile
2). Companies who will use its profits/ cash to grow/expand its business ( capital expenditures or capex ) and whenever not possible, reward its shareholders with the cash as dividend..
It's great to know that the company that you've invested in is on a growth trajectory.
Yet when that is not possible, it's nice to know that they will be generous enough to pass it on to their shareholders ...