KLCI hovers below 1500: Very Bearish

 From May to Aug 2022, KLCI tops 1600 in mid May, plunges to 1420 in mid July and since has recovered to 1500. World economy is in shambles, liquidity crunching, sentiments are bad with inflation spiraling up due to geopolitical tensions and technically puts the world in a recession.

Stock prices have come off the highest from May and I have sold off all my holdings, IOI Corp, MHC, Sarawak Plant in the palm oil plantation sector. 

Maxis recent posted quarterly earning, Qeps of 4.2sen (Qeps/eps 4.3/4.6/4.2/3.7/3.8/4.2) seems to indicate consistent results. DIGI Qeps meanwhile was 2.8 sen (Qeps 3.4/3.6/4.0/3.9/3.0/2.8). Both declared dv 5 sen and 2.8 sen respectively going ex. by month end. Stock prices stood at 3.70 for Maxis and 3.60 for DIGI

CLMT stock price at RM0.57 (nta 1.10, Qeps 0.4/0.5/0.1/-2.4/1.0/1.1) declared dv 1.95sen going ex, 12th Aug. It is unclear whether earnings can be sustained given the tough environments that REITS are going through in the present. YTL reits closed at RM0.96  (nta 1.62, Qeps 0.0/5.6/0.9/0.1/0.0/4.8) declared a dv 2.07sen ex. on 12th

Scientex price plunges to RM3.40 (nta 1.96, Qeps 7.2/7.1/9.2/6.6/6.0/5.7) on worries of diminishing earning affected by rising cost of raw materials in their plastic packaging film production and their property developments in Johor.

Very bearish on the Malaysian stock market. Nothing really worth buying as most stocks seems so pricey, overvalued and risky. Don't listen to any analysts calling for a BUY & HOLD on any stocks.

Many people are holding cash (liquidity) and are fearful of the stock markets. Others are just holding their cash to ride out the uncertainties and their expenses in this liquidity crunch. Keep cash (liquidity) in hand, always.

KLCI Recovers to 1800. Selling Into Strength

Maybank shares price recovers to RM 9..
Profitable trade as all shares were purchased between 8.40 to 8.83

Recent trades:
Sold Insas at 92 sen (plunge to 84 sen today after going ex.).. to wait and see if it goes to 80c/76c range
Sold L&G.. I think it may do a 58 sen hit..
Sold ThongGuan Industry ...

Trading Tambun shares between RM1.50 and 1.80 with KSL (after 1:1 bonus issues) ranging from RM1.80 to 2.10 ... Love the big moves they make...

Switching from telcos to REITS has pay off..
CMMT is currently traded at RM1.56 (accumulated 1.39 to 1.43) with a 4c dv by month end

I like Maybank at this price; RM8.90

Maybank (nta 546, Qeps 20/ 19.6/ 18.1/ 17.5/ 17.6 sen) currently hovering at RM8.90

Maybank previous dividends of  55 sen (31c + 24c) if it persists will offers a dv yield of 6.2 %

Hmmm, quite decent for a bluechip counter..

Sold all my telcos shares in Maxis and DIGI (which pays between dv yield of 4.3 to 4.8 %) to accumulate Maybank..

Insas (nta 180, Qeps 8.9/ 6.2/ 4.6/ 4.9 sen) did surge to RM1.20 strong resistance level before diving on announcement of its recent Qeps of 3.6 sen

Sold most shares above RM1.15

Currently trading at 94 sen, worth nibbling between the range of 90 sen to 86 sen strong support...

L&G (nta 57, Qeps 3.9/ 4.0/ 3.2/ 4.5/ 7.9 sen) looks like a good counter to trade at 50 sen level

Recent trades:

Sold all of my shares in TM, Maxis and DIGI

Sold two-thirds of shares in Tambun above RM2.14 , buying back on weakness in shares price currently trading at RM1.80

Sold some shares in HapSeng, KSL, Paramon, PJ Dev, ThongGuan Ind., L&G, PavReit, IGBReit,

Telco DIGI. Maxis. Property Tambun

DIGI posted its latest Qeps of 6.2 sen and a dividend of 6.26 sen going ex on 5th November.
Looking at the six quarters of earning (Qeps 4.9/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.2) and dividend (Qdps 4.8/ 5.7/ 7.0/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.26), it certainly look like the earnings and the dividends are stagnant; not going to improve a lot.. Currently trading at RM5.95 with a trailing PE of 595/25.9 = 23 and dy of 25.9/595 = 4.3%, it certainly doesn't look very attractive holding DIGI for dividends..

Maxis has not announce its Qeps but looking at previous Qeps 7.0/ 6.3/ 3.9/ 6.4/ 5.9 and Qdps 8/ 8/ 16/ 8/ 8c, its now trading at RM6.62 with a traling PE = 662/ 22.5 =29 and dy = 32/662= 4.8% assuming Maxis will reduce its annual dividends from 40 to 32 sen,,

Prefering REITs now over telco: DIGI or Maxis which has PE ratio > 23
Will accumulate REIT and sell telco on strength

Selling Tambun shares (nta 086, Qeps 4.5/ 5.2/ 6.1/ 6.4/ 6.3/ ??) trading at trailing PE 224/ 24 = 9 with dy = 6.6/ 224 = 2.9%

Maxis share price dips: Buy

Maxis shares price plunges from RM6.90 on downgrade by CIMB Research.
Any level below RM 6.70 is a good position to take for trading profits.
I'm buying in as Maxis will pay 16 sen dividend on 28th May..

KLCI at 1867 high.. Optimism Rules

Been busy doing some property investment and learning some new skills in metal welding and building renovation. Someday I would like to show my competence in welding simple window frames, door frames, steel doors and pet cages, LOL. No major skill, no intent to open a metal foundry (ha ha), just a fascination with how welding fuses two pieces of metal together, that's all...

My property investment is doing well although I must say I invested late after all the easy money has been made by property gurus. Nevertheless I'm pleased with the R.O.I. ranging between 100 to 300% on the capital outlay...

My stocks portfolio also has performed over the time I allowed it to remained virtually unmoved.
Top performer is Tambun purchased at 69c which has yielded a gain of almost 200% at market value of RM2.00
Next is HapSeng bought at RM1.70 now valued at RM3.15 with a gain of 86%
Third on the list is PJ Dev purchased at 98c with a market value of RM1.60 (unrealised profit 60%)
Then there's the 30% beyond gain performers like Scientex, Tomypak, the 20% profit gainers of MHC, Luxchem...
Not forgetting heavyweight blue chips (buy and forget) counters of DIGI, Maxis, Maybank which has regularly given me handsome dividends.. Yawn....

Notice the top three performers are related to the properties sector and that is where I'll be looking for another set of winners. I like Daiman, KSL, Tropicana, WCT, UOADev, TA
There are just too many companies I would like to take a position in but I'm down to 20% cash (80% invested). And I need cash to do short term trade, for daily profits or weekly gain...

I'm beginning to fancy REITS (SunReit, PavReit, CMMT, IGBReit) for their not-so-lofty pricing and their attractive dividend yields > 6%  and I opine that at current pricing, you can buy-and-forget these counters: Appropriate for people with no time to monitor stocks price movement and those who wants better yield than 3% bank FD rate...
For short to mid term, I trade Malton, L&G, TDM, Insas, Pantech, TA, WCT, KSL, TGuan, YTLwb

What To Buy (Amongst Others) If Our Market Plunges...

Made some profit on past weeks trading GenM, Maybank, SPSetia, HapSeng.. Missed out on some active counters cos' I was super busy for past months studying some other investment instruments..
Still, stocks remain my passion due to its liquidity and trading ease..

Some of the counters that I was lookin at in the previous weeks:
MPHB (239, 5.9/ 9.4/ 5.2/ 3.5) Paid a 5c dv
HapSeng (161, 3.9/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 5.8) Paid a 6c dv
HSPlant (236, 5.4/ 3.9/ 4.5/ 3.7) Paid a 5c dv
TomyPak (095, 3.2/ 5/ 3.9/ 3.6) Paid a 2c dv
Luxchem (105, 4.9/ 4.4/ 3.1/ 4.5) Dv of 5c going ex on 29th May

YTL (125, 3.9/ 2.9/ 4/ 2.5)
PJDev (203, 2.8/ 2.3/ 3.5/ 1.5)
SPSetia (201, 4/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 6.3) Paid a 9c dv
MahSing (141, 4.9/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 6.6)
UOADev (165, 12/ 3/ 9/ 6.8/5.6) Paid a 12c dv
E&O (122, 3.8/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 2.4)
Dijaya (260, 2.7/ 8.4/ 12.6/ 8.3)
Ivory (082, 1.9/ 7.2/ 0.4/ 0)
Tambun (072, 4.1/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.6) Paid 3.3c dv
B'stead (450, 18.6/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 7.5/ 14) Paid a 7.5c dv

Maxis (097, 12/ 7.6/ 6.2/ 5.9/ 5) Paid a 8c dv last mth. Another 8c ex. 14th May
DIGI (03, 4/ 4/ 4/ 3.2) Paid a 2.5c dv
TM (183, 16.7/ 7/ 9.7/ 8.4/ 10.2) Expecting a dv of 12.2c
GenM (232, 4.8/ 8.8/ 3.4/ 7.9) Expecting a dv of 5c
Maybank (500/ 17.6/ 18.6/ 19.1/ 17.3) Expecting a dv of 33c

TDM (503, 7.5/ 3.9/ 16.2/ 14) making large move today, from RM4.2 to RM4.50
Declaring a 22c dv with proposed bonus issue 1:5 and shares split division of 1 into 5 shares of 20sens each.

 

Telco. Maxis.

Still like telco although they are going thru corrections.
Buy Maxis at RM 6.66 levels. If it slides further to 6.40 then double your purchase..!

DIGI. What's up.?

DIGI making big moves these few days, from 4.90 to 5.30 ...
There has been talk on capital repayment of putting RM509m + RM495m back into the shareholder's pocket but the exercise date has yet to be determined ..
Dividing the amount over 7,775m shares, that works out 6.5 sen + 6.4 sen

Coupled with the estimated regular dv of 6sen x 4 quarters = 24 sen, the whole thing amounts to 37 sen
Yield = 37 / 530 = 7 percent
Analysts are generally positive on DIGI growth prospect and earnings despite intense competition.

Let's watch other telcos ...

GenM. HS Plant. Maxis. TM. MWE.

GenM (nta 226, Q/Q 5.5/ 6.1// 6.2/ 4.8/ 8.8sen latest) Qeps improved.
Share price surged from RM3.30 to 3.53 last week. Dv 3.8 sen going ex. on 26th Sept

HS Plant (nta 234, QQ 9.5/ 8.3/ 6.6// 5.4/ 3.9 sen) Qeps of plantation companies generally weak
Dv 6 sen going ex. 12th Sept

Maxis (nta 098, QQ 7.3/ 7.2/ 12/ 7.6/ 6.2 sen) Latest Qeps declined
Announced Dv 8 sen ex. on 12th Sept

TM (nta 234, QQ 9.5/ 8.3/ 16.7/ 7/ 9.7 ) Latest Qeps improved on HSBB Unifi
Dv 9.8 sen going ex. 12th Sept

MWE (nta 211, QQ 5.3/ 5.4/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.1sen) Qeps flat
Dv 6 sen ex. 5th Sept

Telcos. Digi. Maxis.

Looks like there's no stopping Digi as its share prices continue to edge up in the month of August. After a two weeks climb from RM4.50 at the beginning of the month,  the share settled at RM5.00 per piece with a gain of 50 sen or  more than 11 percent.
I'm amazed by the ascent : in such a rapid movement of almost 1 percent per day session that I quickly accumulated Digi shares, almost daily ...

What if you have missed out on this mini rally in Digi ..?
Buy some now but be prepared to average down if market turns against you ...

Maxis share prices made similar decent gain of 40 sen ( more than 6 percent <= 6.80/ 6.40) in the same two weeks period ... Phew I was right about this one when I asked some friends to buy at RM6.30 - 6.40 range and hold ...
Maxis is expected to announce its earning next week. If earnings improved with another 8 sen dividend, then watch it surpass RM 7.00 mark. Else share price may tumble.
And that's when we will be picking the shares again ...

Watch other telcos : TM and Axiata ...

Buy. Maxis. GenM.

Maxis (nta 108, QQeps 7.3/ 7.2/ 12/ 7.6 sen) share price tumbled to RM6.30 after report of AK disposal of 5% stake in the company..
While it's not cheap with PE of 18, its dividend yield is very attractive at 6.4 %
For those who have missed out buying while it was RM 5.70 on Feb 7th, now is the time to buy some and hold for a year or two... This stock is especially for those who're thinking about investing in unit trust or buying into dividend yielding stocks..

Buy at 3 levels: RM 6.30/ RM 6.00/ RM 5.70
Don't worry too much about the downside, I repeat from my Feb 7th posting, the 40 sen dividend will bring your staggered buying cost to RM 5.90/ RM 5.60/ RM5.30 after one year..
Its lowest since IPO is approx RM 5.20

If you're using Maxis as your cellphone carrier or 3G, you should buy own some Maxis shares.
I asked friends who use Maxis mobile to own some shares and earn some dividend. To pay for their bills as it's a win-win scenario..
Same for those who uses DIGI, buy the Digi shares and earn the dividend to pay the bills. Sane logic, if you're supporting the business why not own part of it...?

I've been right about buying DIGI with TM all the way from RM 3.30 to 4.00 (TM currently about RM6.00 per share).
Telco share prices are usually slow moving but they do trend up. I can't guarantee Maxis will fly like TM or DIGI but over the long term, it's not possible to lose money on this one.
By the way, if you fancy regional telco try my favourites ; Singtel and Telstra ...

GenM (223, QQeps 5.5/ 6.1/ 6.2/ 4.8sen) trading around RM 3.30 with PE of 15
With more than RM 1 billion profit every year, it has plenty of cash in its coffer either to do acquisition, RPT (unfavorable) or reward its shareholder (maybe generously on one fine day.!)..
Why would I buy..?
It's the profitability, earnings predictability and gaming assets in the UK that interest me...

TM . Lower capex in 2012

The company, which allocated some RM1.4 billion in capital expenditure (capex) last year, expects slightly lower capex this year. “ This is critical as the government’s contribution for the RM11.3 billion HSBB project ends this year.

TELEKOM Malaysia Bhd (TM), the country’s largest fixed-line company, expects to spend about RM1 billion on high-speed broadband (HSBB) network next year, as it is banking on it to maintain its broadband leadership.
The project launched in 2008 is a public-private partnership in which TM is investing RM8.9 billion over 10 years while the government is coinvesting RM2.4 billion.

So far, the government has paid RM2.2 billion (of the RM2.4 billion) to TM. “There’s only like RM200 million left in terms of contribution from government,” added Zamzamzairani.
It means starting next year, TM will self-fund the continuous rolling out of HSBB network and demand will decide the rollout.

Under the HSBB agreement with the government, TM had agreed to blanket 1.3 million premises passes with its HSBB network by the end of 2012. To date, the company has covered about 1.18 million premises passes.
Besides rolling out HSBB network, capex will also be used to build a submarine cable connecting Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah and Sarawak, as well as expanding its fibre footprint there. The cost for the submarine cable has yet been finalised.

The launch of HSBB services is critical to TM’s future growth and to some extent, its survival. During the past years, the company has seen its fixed-line voice revenue declining.
Once its bread and butter, the voice business now contributes about 40 per cent of its total revenue. Non-voice businesses such as broadband constitute 60 per cent of TM’s sales.
Read more: TM expects lower capex for HSBB http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20120319013826/Article/index_html#ixzz1pYGWXtOe

Telco Axiata, TM, Digi, Maxis

Axiata (nta 228, Q/Qeps -4/ 6/ 8/ 7 sen) Fv 280. Now trading at RM4.75 @ pe 17, Dv 14 sen Dy 3%
TM (nta 177, Q/Q 11.2/ 4.6/ 3.6/ 8.4 sen) Fv 250. Now trading at RM 4.82 @ pe 19, Dv 23 sen Dy 4.8%
Digi (nta 018, Q/Q 4.3/ 3.1/ 3.8/ 5.1 sen) Fv 170. Now trading at RM 4.11 @ pe 24, Dv 17.5 sen Dy 4.26%
Maxis (nta 1.03, Q/Q 8.1/ 7.2/ 7.3/ 7.2 sen) Fv 300. Now trading at RM 5.70 @ pe 19, Dv 40 sen Dy 7%

Remarks: Axiata will cross RM 5 range once they start paying better dividends ...
TM looks pricely now with the run-up from RM4 level to current. RM5 level is what I considered fully valued (see my previous posting). I think there's no more capital repayment in the pipeline so investors will likely just get 9.8sen tax exempted every six months which will give a yield of 4 %. It's a sell if it ever matches Maxis share price ...
Digi has gone ballistic after the share split and announcement of latest Qeps of 5.1sen and dv of 6.5 sen. Based of trailing quaterly eps and dv payout, it's pe is the highest with Dy = (4.3+3.0+3.7+6.5)/ 411 = 4.26% low. Its next Qeps & dv will be interesting to look at. If it can sustain its Quarterly dv 6.5 sen, then Dy = (6.5 x 4/ 411) = 6.3%
Maxis hasn't really breakout from its RM5.20 to 5.70 range and I would recommend buying some purely for dividends. Hold a year or two and see if it could follow the footsteps of Digi (I held Digi for two years). Don't worry too much about downside if you buy at RM5.60- 5.70 cos' one year's dividend will bring your cost to RM5.20 (lower range).
Besides 7% dy is twice your FD rates. Even if you dont make any money first year on Maxis, your second year gain makes up for two years FD gain. Make sense ..?
Happy investing ya ...

KLCI under intense pressure again

Most of the guys I asked today said that they're going to sell, sell, sell despite holding onto defensive blue-chip companies stocks. This seeem to be the prevalent sentiment that's striking terror in the hearts of even those who a fortnight ago were not even agitated by the Euro crisis.
So it seems like even the brave hearted are now striken by fear of losing their gains.

For some who are considering into buying into Tenaga shares (nta 532, QQ 9/ 16/ 14/ -8 sen), I say, be cautious until there is some glimpse that electricity tariff gets another hike. With the cost of fuel (coal and gas) on the high side, this will erode the financial bottom line further.

Instead why not buy TM shares at below RM 4..? Its earning (QQ 12/ 11/ 5/ 4 sen ) is still not that fabulous but there's the growth story of the HSBB (high speed broadband) which is partially paid/subsidised by the Gov't.. With a guaranteed minimum of 13 sen (9.8 sen net) dividend paid out every six months, this is one to have as your core investment.
Punt and trade on this one below RM 4 if ever it plunges... Happy investing...

DiGi to return RM509m to shareholders

DiGi.Com Bhd, Malaysia’s third- largest mobile phone operator, plans to return cash to shareholders including Norway’s Telanor ASA after receiving a RM509 million (US$170 million) payment from a unit.

The company also said investors will receive 10 shares for each one they currently own in a proposed split to make the stock more affordable and boost liquidity, according to stock exchange filings today.

DiGi, 49-percent owned by Telenor will make the payment to shareholders by the first half of 2012 as it depreciates more than 1 billion ringgit of equipment and upgrades its network.

European stocks fall 5.0% on fear of recession, debt risks.TM Chart.

European stocks plunged by about 5.0 percent in mid afternoon trading on Monday, hit by acute tension over the risk of recession in leading economies and over eurozone debt.

Bonds issued by Greece and Italy fell, and the cost of insuring against default by Italy and France, as indicated by the market for credit default swap (CDS) instruments, rose sharply. The euro fell below 1.41 dollars. The price of gold jumped back above $1,900 an ounce on demand for a safe haven investment.

The head of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet warned of an immediate and imperative need for enactment of a second debt rescue for Greece, and for tightened discipline in the management of eurozone economies. He also spoke of an eventual "confederal" disciplined management of eurozone national finances. And the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde repeated her warning that banks in Europe need extra capital to withstand any contagion from the eurozone debt crisis.

The move against stocks was exacerbated by a decision by US authorities to take legal action against 17 leading international banks over trading in securitised mortgage trading at the heart of the 2008 financial crisis, traders said. Bank shares fell heavily in Europe.

German stocks were down by nearly 6.0 percent, while in London, the FTSE index fell by 3.06 percent to 5,129.97 points. The Frankfurt stock market was showing a fall of 5.55 percent from the closing level on Friday to 5,230.84 points on the DAX index with Deutsche Bank shares down 9.59 percent. In Paris the CAC 40 index was down 5.10 percent to 2,987.96 points and in Milan, the FTSE Mib index was showing a fall of 5.30 percent to 14,263 points.

The US legal moves are aimed at recouping billions of dollars lost in the financial crisis. "The US decided to drop a bombshell on the banking sector ahead of their extended weekend by announcing a $200-billion (141-billion-euro) lawsuit across the whole industry for the miss selling of mortgage backed assets, the dreaded subprime loans," said Simon Denham, head of London-based trading group Capital Spreads.

US firms targeted in the suits included Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, General Electric, Ally Financial and First Horizon. The foreign banks were Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Nomura, Royal Bank of Scotland and Societe Generale.

Traders also continued to digest weak US data from late last week. The jobs data for August were the worst since September 2010, when the economy shed more than twice the number of jobs it created. The pace of job growth remains far below the numbers needed to reduce the high unemployment rate.

Telekom Malaysia Chart

Banks downgrade. Hedging. Telco.Gold.

Despite the pretty good earnings of the banking sector in Malaysia, there is a general downgrade on the banking sector by most analysts. While I'm still upbeat on some of the bank stocks that pays pretty good dividends but I can't help noticed the selling pressure on CIMB which has influenced share prices of other banks. So I have conceded to the trend of Mr. Market and reduce my holding of banking stocks.

It's darn tough to trade in this treacherous condition but here's what I think you can do if you're experiencing some monetary losses in your current position and looking to recoup a loss (by hedging) and/or are looking for a potentially rewarding trade, on a SHORT TERM strategy or a LONG TERM one.

1.)... Look for stocks that're trending upwards and buy on dips... The only sector that's on my list is the telecom sector.
You may even have your own idea of sectors and stocks that're on the uptrend. You may check with your financial consultant, brokers for some recommendations but the decision to buy remains YOURS, and yours alone.. If in doubt, DON'T buy. Coz you cannot lose money further if you don't buy in..

You may buy stocks that're tanking, pray for a technical rebound. That's your prerogatives but never my liking (I've learned by paying my dues/ for my lesson to Mr. Market ). It make more sense to buy blue-chip stocks that're rising in share prices than dumping more money in losing stocks.

The idea is to hedge yr current losing trades by taking a position in several potential winning trades. And if your winning trades equalise your losing trades in monetary terms, it's time to quit the market... The idea is not to make big gains but minimise your losses and quit the market. Repeat --- Quit when trades equalise...!

2.)... Exit the stock market and invest LONG in precious metals IF you seriously believe we're in for a crash/collapse in the financial market.

I'm not the smartest gold investor around but this is what you can consider. Set up a precious metals fund equivalent to 10 - 20 % of your portfolio. Start by taking a small position, say 10% of your intended precious metals fund, at around this time, with prices hovering around USD 1,800/oz. Buy with another 40% of yr precious metals fund if gold price dips to USD 1,500 within one month and another 50% if it plunges to USD 1,200/oz within three months..

Patiently hold yr investment to 4 - 5 years and dream on for a USD 3,600/oz by 2015...? I guess it would be fair for me to take a position and post my gold investment gain/loss on a three month basis up to 2015. It would be interesting to prove the "gold bugs" story...
Forgotten are my minute gold investment in physical Gold Maple Leaf 1 oz in 2009 (?) when price of gold was at its highest hovering around RM3,300 and my 1 oz silver American Eagle was purchased at USD 16..
Happy investing...

Earnings. HSP.TM.AirAsia.MAS.Axiata.CIMB.Maybank.

HS Plant (nta 230, QQ 4.5/ 5/ 7/ 7/ 9.4 sen) Fv= RM2.80, now trading at RM2.70 Declares tax exempted 10 sen dv, going ex. 8th Sept
TM (nta 186, QQ 3.5/ 12/ 11/ 4.6/ 3.6 sen) Fv= RM1.70, now trading at RM4.10. Declares tax exempted 9.8 sen dv, going ex. 8th Sept.
Air Asia (nta 141, QQ 7/ 12/ 11/ 6/ 4 sen) Fv = RM2.40, now trading at RM3.50
MAS (nta 84, QQ 16/ 7/ 7/ -7/ -16 sen) Quaterly earning still in red and sinking
Axiata (nta 225, QQ 7/ 8/ -4/ 6/ 8 sen) Fv = RM3, now trading at RM 5 . Propose 4 sen dv
CIMB (nta 331, 12/ 13/ 12/ 12/ 13 sen) Fv = RM5, now trading at RM 7.80. Announces dv 12 sen, going ex. 8th Sept
Maybank (nta 420, QQ 13/ 14/ 16/ 15/ 15 sen) Fv= RM6, now trading at RM 8.60, propose dv 32 sen

GenM. TM.

GenM surges from RM 3.50 range finishing at 3.86, making a gain of 10 % within two weeks.
TM gains 4 % from 3.85 to 4.00 in the same period of time or 8 % since mid May at RM 3.70 ex. after it paid out 29 sen cap. repay + 13 sen dv. Three months back, most analysts were marking TM target price at RM3.50 to 3.90 after pricing in capital repayment of 29 sen + dividend of 13 sen. In my opinion, the analyst were shortsighted to account for the potential upside in telco sector. RM 5 is more like TP in the med-long term with more news of Axiata, Maxis collaborating with TM. Remember Axiata was in the RM 3.50 range when I call a buy in the regional telco player.
You can read my thoughts on TM in previous posting and why it should form the core of one's portfolio. Recent reading revealed that TM will embarked on a RM 11 billion HSBB, out of which RM 3 billion will come from Gov't.. Nice, very nice...

Is TM too expensive..? Not so if based on pure dividend alone, dv yield = 26/400 = 6.5 %

Is it the right time to take a position..? Yes, though my timing has always been lousy. But you can allocate 3 triggers; buy at RM4.00, RM3.70 and RM3.40

What if the stock market reverses..? Say you buy at RM4 and price plunges to RM3.70, here's what happen if you hold the shares. For 6 months, dividend payout min. 13 sen, + share price 370 = 383, you lose 17 sen (4.3 %). Hold for 1 year, dv payout is 26 sen, + share price 370 = 386, you lose 4 sen (1 %). Every 3 year gives you min 26 sen x 3 = 78 sen so should your share price drop to RM 3.22 in 3 years holding, you don't lose your capital.

Will it ever plunge to RM3.22..? It may and I'll be loading up with twice the existing holding in TM. Recap TM did a placement to local/foreign investor last year at RM3.25 and share price never touch down that level.

I invested for two friends CSM and EC, buying TM last year at RM 3.39 and RM 3.43. Gain in one year: dividend 13 sen, capital repayment 29 sen + dv 13 sen and capital appreciation 57 sen at current share price of RM4. Total = 112/343 = 32.6, say 33 %. Fabulous return in a year for a defensive laggard.

There are others who have gain much, much more when they bought in at RM 3.00 (390 - 90sen cap repay) two and half years ago. Todate they would have gain dv 13 sen, dividend 13 sen x 2, cap repay 29 sen + dv 13 sen and capital appreciation of 100 sen at current share price of RM4. Total gain = 181/30 = 60 %. To them, I take my hats off ..!

For beginners to stock mart, start loading up on TM in your stock portfolio up to max of 50% of your intended investment. Wait for share price to surge to 10-15% capital gain and a payout of first dividend of 13 sen. This will act as a hedge to protect your loss in other stock picks.
Happy investing ya...