Plantations. CPO up

HS Plantation soared highest RM3.32 this Wednesday morning with an 18% gain in my portfolio. Sold some holdings.
TDM Plant din budge at all despite the fantastic quarterly EPS. Disappointment to many (including me) who bought in anticipating good Qeps and surge in price. I think TDM will follow the path of HSP, pauses at RM2.40 level bf breaking out higher. Syndicates, pls come and make my day..!
Kfima also reverses after I bought in. Anyway, no fretting. Keep looking for undervalued companies to buy into. Checking into IJMP and TSH.
Sorry, I dont like big plantation co. trading at high PER. KLK ( nta 564, Q/Q 23/ 23/ 20/ 23/ 29 ) Fv = 950. Now trading at RM20.20 w/ PE of 21, too high for my liking...
Meanwhile CPO prices has recovered from recent low, even surpassing recent high of RM3370 to RM3,415

My CMMT took a turn and surged to RM1.14 ( +5.5% ) at yesterday closing.
IJM spiked past RM6.00 ( +4.5% ) but slumped back RM5.74. Still more upside to come.

TM. TDM. B'Stead. GenM. Earnings

B'Stead ( nta 435, Q/Q 12/ 16/ 10/ 16/ 10 sen ) Fv = RM4.00 Now trading at RM5.20 w/PE 13. Dividend 12 sen ex 14th Dec.
GenM ( nta 196, Q/Q 6/ 6/ 5/ 5/ 6 sen ) Fv = RM2.40 Now trading at RM3.20 w/PE 13
TM ( nta 209, Q/Q 5/ 5/ 7/ 3.5/ 12 sen ) Fv = RM 2.00. Trading at RM3.30 w/PE 17
TDM ( nta 303, Q/Q 9/ 10/ 9/ 6/ 13 sen ) Fv = RM4.80 Now trading at RM2.40 w/PE 5

Sunway & Suncity: Which to buy...?

A fren today asked which to buy and at what price..? Here's a guide..
Generally, it's a buy when market price is below Sunway Sdn Bhd's offer price. Yet you want to buy at a huge discount cos' you're going to be holding the risk of market downturn from now until Sunway SB merge the two listed companies Sunway Holdings Bhd & Sunway City Bhd into a new company and relist it in Bursa ( possibly next year.?).

Trading in Sunway and it's warrant may be more liquid but you want to observe which gives the best discount if you intend to buy and hold till relisting of new company.
1). We all know the offer price for Sunway is RM2.60 and Sunway warrant WC is RM1.50
Mkt price today for Sunway is RM2.27 lowest and Sunway WC is RM1.28 lowest so Sunway is traded today's low at (260/227 => 1.145 ie, 14 % below offer price) and warrant is traded at (150/128 =>1.172 ie 17 % discount)
2). Offer price for Suncity is RM5.10 and Suncity warrant WA is RM1.29
Mkt price traded today for Suncity is RM4.49 lowest (510/449 => 1.136 ie 13 %) and for warrant WA is RM1.11 lowest (129/111 => 1.162 ie 16 % )

Here's a guide for a 20% off from offer price (2.60/ 1.50/ 5.10/ 1.29) for easy trading:
Sunway at RM2.16 Sunway-WC at RM1.25
Suncity at RM 4.25 Suncity-WA at RM1.07

Earnings, Earnings, Earnings

KFima ( nta 163, Q/Q 3.8/ 6.9/ 4.7/ 6.6/ 5.6 sen) Fv = RM2.20
TH Plant ( nta 096, Q/Q 2.6/ 4.6/ 3.7/ 1.6/ 4.4 sen ) Fv = RM1.40
HS Plant ( nta 213, Q/Q 3/ 5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 5.2 sen ) Fv = RM2.00
IJM P ( nta 154, Q/Q 3/ 5/ 2/ 4/ 6 sen) Fv = RM2.40
HS Cons ( nta 441, Q/Q 7/ 2/ 7/ 24/ 8 sen ) Fv = RM 3.20
IJM ( nta 378, 7/ 6/ 8/ 7/ 9 sen) Fv = RM3.60
IJM L ( nta 150, Q/Q 3/ 2/ 2/ 5/ 3 sen ) Fv = RM 1.20
IGB ( nta 196, Q/Q 3/ 2/ 2/ 3/ 3 sen) Fv = RM1.20
RCECap ( nta 051, Q/Q 2.5/ 2.7/ 2.9/ 3/ 4 sen) Fv = 1.30
Axiata ( nta 228, Q/Q 6/ 7/ 11/ 7/ 8 sen ) Fv = RM 3.20
Lion Ind ( nta 420, Q/Q 10/ 12/ 12/ 17/ -3) loss making
QL Reso ( nta 140, Q/Q 8/ 9/ 7/ 7/ 8 sen) Fv = 3.20
DRB Hcm ( nta 250, Q/Q 3/ 5/ 13/ 8/ 7 sen ) Fv = 2.80
GenM (nta 196, Q/Q 6.3/ 6.3/ 4.8/ 5.3/ 5.9 sen Nov ) Fv = RM2.40

Sunway Holdings to merge with Sunway City

Sunway Sdn Bhd will acquire the two listed construction and property outfits, Sunway Holdings Bhd at RM 2.60/ share and Suncity Bhd at RM 5.10/ share, merge and relist it in Bursa with NEW CO shares at RM2.80/share with cash repayment and free warrants.
My gain/profit of Suncity shares is now up by 27 %
My greatest gain on my purchase since my previous posting on 18th October: Sunrise (30%), Suncity (27%), Masteel (24%). My disappointment has got to Leader Universal: it reverses after my purchase.
Someone tease if I could manage their portfolio. I jokingly asked if he would be willing to pay 2% charge on stocks purchase and 20% charge on all profit/gain made. that's what most fund manager charges 2: 20 rule.
Nay, it's far cheaper to just read and follow my blog and many other excellent blogs. Beside there are many TA guys/frens who made much much more trading the market. A close fren consistently makes RM4,000 on his capital of RM40,000 over 2 months. That's 5% monthly average or 60% a year. I could never ever beat that record coz I'm more like a "turtle investor" rather than a speculative trader.
Happy stock picking...!

Resources Fund Price Reverses

Osk Uob Resources unit fund price dived from recent peak of 70 sen to 67.14 sen within 10 days, taking a 5 % loss. Among its investment poftfolio are agribiz giant Wilmar SG ( share price nosediving 12 %) and both mining giants BHP (AU) and RIO (AU) taking 5 % drop in share prices. CPO price also continue to dip from recent high of RM3370 to RM3115 ( 8 % )

China Raises Banking Reserves, Contains Inflation.

DJ Newswires: Effective 29th Nov, China Central Bank will raise banks reserve ratio requirement, intensifying efforts to drain excess liquidity from the banking system to rein in credit growth after China's consumer price inflation shot up to 4.4%

Bad news for commodities.

Commodities currency AUD slid from 3.13 to approx 3.06

CRB Index retreats from 314 to 299. CPO price drops from 3370 to 3180.

My Profitable Investment Over Last 3 Months

Plantations:
Bought Boustead at RM 4.30 and still accumulating ( gain 32% at RM 5.70 today )
TDM at RM 2.15 & 2.41 and still accumulating ( up 10% at RM 2.50 )
HS Plant at RM 2.79 and still accumulating ( up 8 % at RM 3.02 )
I'll evaluate another few counters in this sector and then take some position in them.
Properties & Building Materials:
Sunrise at RM 2.13 ( up 48 % at RM 3.16 )
Suncity at RM4.00 and accumulating ( up 2 % at RM 4.08)
MaSteel RM0.85 ( up 21 % at RM 1.02 )
Leader RM 0.88 and accumulating ( up 2 % at RM 0.90 )
Likes Ann Joo. Loves South Steel even more but unfortunately capped in price.
I have posted the fundamentals on the above stocks so the price movement should trend upwards in the medium term.
My loser: TM and CMMT ( down 2 % )

AUD/MYR soar to 3.135 CRB index up 314

Congrats to those who bought into commodity currency AUD/MYR at 2.6, 2.8, 3.0 range

Commodity CRB index ( of precious metals, industrial metals, oil, grains) has surge to 314, up from 270 since August while US Dollar index has slide from 82 to 76 in the same period. Go directly to website www.ino.com or click on Market Summary: US Index under Market Update on the right side column of this blog.

How to assess Plantation Co. EPS wrt CPO price movement

Cepat Wawasan Plant (nta RM1.69, Q/Q eps 1.6/ 2.7/ 2.5/ 1.3/ 4.1 sen )
Puzzled over the jump in Q eps, I looked into the company's website info. Info derived from the plantation operation webpage suggest 133, 044 mt fresh fruit bunches (FFB) harvested and milling operation webpage suggest 314,569 mt FFB processed..?
Which is which...? Either a grave error or they are processing/extracting for other smaller planters and deriving a profit.
Anyway, annual production FY 2009, FFB = 133,044 mt. Estimated extraction of CPO = 0.2 x FFB = 26,609 mt
CPO mt/ share = 26, 609/ 215,450,000 shares issued = 0.12 mt/1000 shares
For every RM100/mt increase in CPO, annual EPS = RM100 x 0.12/1000 = 0.012 or 1.2 sen accretive
Therefore up target price (PE 10) = 12 sen

HS Plant (nta RM2.14, Q/Q eps 2.9/ 5/ 4.6/ 4.5 sen )
Production FY 2009, FB = 672, 768 mt. Estimated CPO = 0.21 x FFB = 140,985 mt
CPO mt/ share = 140, 985 / 800 million = 0.17 mt/ 1000 shares
For every RM100/mt up, it adds 1.7 sen to annual EPS . TP up 17 sen