GenM. TM.

GenM surges from RM 3.50 range finishing at 3.86, making a gain of 10 % within two weeks.
TM gains 4 % from 3.85 to 4.00 in the same period of time or 8 % since mid May at RM 3.70 ex. after it paid out 29 sen cap. repay + 13 sen dv. Three months back, most analysts were marking TM target price at RM3.50 to 3.90 after pricing in capital repayment of 29 sen + dividend of 13 sen. In my opinion, the analyst were shortsighted to account for the potential upside in telco sector. RM 5 is more like TP in the med-long term with more news of Axiata, Maxis collaborating with TM. Remember Axiata was in the RM 3.50 range when I call a buy in the regional telco player.
You can read my thoughts on TM in previous posting and why it should form the core of one's portfolio. Recent reading revealed that TM will embarked on a RM 11 billion HSBB, out of which RM 3 billion will come from Gov't.. Nice, very nice...

Is TM too expensive..? Not so if based on pure dividend alone, dv yield = 26/400 = 6.5 %

Is it the right time to take a position..? Yes, though my timing has always been lousy. But you can allocate 3 triggers; buy at RM4.00, RM3.70 and RM3.40

What if the stock market reverses..? Say you buy at RM4 and price plunges to RM3.70, here's what happen if you hold the shares. For 6 months, dividend payout min. 13 sen, + share price 370 = 383, you lose 17 sen (4.3 %). Hold for 1 year, dv payout is 26 sen, + share price 370 = 386, you lose 4 sen (1 %). Every 3 year gives you min 26 sen x 3 = 78 sen so should your share price drop to RM 3.22 in 3 years holding, you don't lose your capital.

Will it ever plunge to RM3.22..? It may and I'll be loading up with twice the existing holding in TM. Recap TM did a placement to local/foreign investor last year at RM3.25 and share price never touch down that level.

I invested for two friends CSM and EC, buying TM last year at RM 3.39 and RM 3.43. Gain in one year: dividend 13 sen, capital repayment 29 sen + dv 13 sen and capital appreciation 57 sen at current share price of RM4. Total = 112/343 = 32.6, say 33 %. Fabulous return in a year for a defensive laggard.

There are others who have gain much, much more when they bought in at RM 3.00 (390 - 90sen cap repay) two and half years ago. Todate they would have gain dv 13 sen, dividend 13 sen x 2, cap repay 29 sen + dv 13 sen and capital appreciation of 100 sen at current share price of RM4. Total gain = 181/30 = 60 %. To them, I take my hats off ..!

For beginners to stock mart, start loading up on TM in your stock portfolio up to max of 50% of your intended investment. Wait for share price to surge to 10-15% capital gain and a payout of first dividend of 13 sen. This will act as a hedge to protect your loss in other stock picks.
Happy investing ya...

Hap Seng Rights Issue @ RM1.05

Hap Seng said on 5th July that it has fixed the issue price of the rights shares at RM1.05 with the exercise price of the new free detachable warrants at RM1.65

HSC said the issue price for the rights share at RM1.05 was a discount of about 35.98% to the theoretical ex-all price of its shares of RM1.64 calculated based on the five-day volume weighted average price, up to and including July 4, of RM5.26.

The rights Issue will entail the issuance of 364.39 million rights shares and 364.39 million warrants.

Hap Seng Cons. ( nta 473, Q/Qeps 23/ 8/ 18/ 14 ) Trading at RM5.30 (pe 530/620= 8.5)

GBP plunges

GBP plunges to 1.1044 against the EURO and 4.8289 against the ringgit MYR. You can take a long position on GBP/Eur or do a Dual Currency GBP/Myr

How to trade safely in this market

Many blue chips counter are trading in a narrow band so it seems like we'll have to trade between these and be contented with a few percentage of gain within a week or two.
GenM and Maybank seems to be trading in the ranges of RM 3.5 to 3.7 and 8.7 to 9.0 respectively for the moment and if well traded, could yield a potential of 3 %. Not much but 3 % within a fortnight is much better than the same in a yearly FD. I think there's limited downside for these two counters. TM is another safe bet ranging from RM 3.85

There's many other counters you can trade for short term gain. I'm pretty sure you have your favourites to scalp for a profit. Just ensure you pick counters you're familiar with its price action, having good fundamentals (decent earnings) and newsflow.
I think Latexx and Supermax deserve a relook with commodities prices trending down. The only snag is the income that's priced in USD ( 1: 3 MYR ). Happy trading ..!

Commodities prices slip

Price of CPO dropped from RM3,200 to RMRM3,150 losing abt RM50.
Commodity currency AUD slipped from 3.22 to 3.176
Precious metal gold plunges from USD 1,544 to USD 1,521
Commodities stock price will tend to drift lower. For those who are keen to get back into our plantation stocks, wait for CPO price to hit RM3,000 mark, AUD at 3.08 and gold below 1,500
I'm waiting to accumulate HSP at 2.40 - 2.50, THP at 1.80 - 1.90, TDM 2.70 - 2.80 as I have completely sold of all my plantation stocks when CPO prices retreated from near peak of RM3,800.

Average Investor's Allocation

Since March 2009, CCP trade the stock market weekly and gradually built up his initial investment capital to a peak of RM 320k.
Early this year, he reduced his stocks holdings to current value of RM 289k with cash in hand & dividend of RM 133k... Total stocks & cash = 289 + 133 = 422k.
Gain = 422 - 320 = 102k ( 32 % ), all in hand.
Note: his cash position 133k = 41% of initial capital (320k) or 32% (total 422k)... Ratio cash 1: 2 stocks approx.

In 2010, ALE started trading the market fortnightly with capital of RM 198k. She has also trimmed her positions in the market and is holding RM 80k cash and RM 160k in stocks, total RM 240k Gain = ( 240-198 ) /198 = 21 % or RM 42k, (near half of her 80k cash in hand)
Note: her cash position = 40% of initial capital (198k) or 33% of total (240k).. Ratio cash 1 : 2 stocks

In comparison, my return incl. dividends = 33 %, current cash holding = 26% of initial capital.. Ratio cash 1: 4 stocks.. Plan to reduce my cash holding by investing into dividend stocks...

People of God, are you happy.?

Many people of God are simply not happy.
Their happiness is based on externals, stuff like personal academics/self achievement, relationship or finances: on how much they have attained over the weeks/months in sales figure, how many numerical they have in their bank accounts, how much property in their possession or acqusition, how their relationship with their spouse/ kids fare, how a certain person or group of people have treated/behave towards them. While all these has a place of its own, it's sad to watch how the people of God loses their inner joy over all these.

I've met another group of unhappy people who live their lives centred solely on a set of laws and commandments that's derived from their sacred book. They can remember so well the text inside out, many who can quote verses so meticulously, many who can "proof-text" their doctrine.
But if you're not happy, you're just living a rigourous/tiring religious life of do and don't and that sucks. A wise man said something to this effect, " A person can be in the known religiously but spiritually undiscerned." Religion and spirituality are two differently things.
The Good News (Gospel) is about how one can meet God, the Author of the sacred book, enjoy God being with us and live life happily, much less to do with other stuff.... And unless you discover the God of the sacred, you're just living life on the peripheral (by the book).

You must be happy because of the simplistic fact that
1). Immanuel (God is with us). Was once seperated from God but now reconciled.
2). Identity changed to being child of God. To those who believe, God gave you the rights to become a child of God.
3). God gives you a Holy Spirit to empower you and gives you the ability to live a life as a happy child of God. In the words of a child, "spirits and demons jumps out and Holy Spirit jumps in."

Tambun Indah.Axiata.Maxis.Digi.

Tambun Indah (nta 66, 1Q eps 2.9 sen ), a property developer on Penang mainland caught my attention with their announcement on their interim dividend of 4.6 sen going ex. 11th Aug. This stock worth accumulating for med- long time for growth and dividend play with limited downside.
Axiata (nta 227, Q/Q 11/ 7/ 8/ -4/ 6) making its moves on RHB call to buy. Recently paid maiden dividend of 10 sen in June. More dividend to come in Sept...? Assuming EPS of 26 sen, it's trading w/ PER 19 at share price of RM4.93
Compare Maxis (nta 115, Q/Q 7/ 7/ 8/ 8/ 7 ) EPS 30 sen. Trading at RM5.45 w/PER 18
and DIGI (nta 173, Q/Q 36/ 37/ 43/ 43 ) EPS 160. Trading at RM28.6 w/ PER 18
My take = accumulate all above shares on weakness. Don't forget to buy more of TM shares once you've received the capital repayment of 29 sen + 13 sen dv tomorrow in yr account. Happy investing. Blessings to all.

US stocks swoon, Dow below 12,000

Stocks retreated broadly on Friday, with the Dow ending below 12,000 for the first time since March 18 and the Nasdaq erasing all of its gains for the year.

DJ and S&P continue to slide for the six consecutive weeks, its longest weekly slump since the fall of 2002.
The pressure points for the Dow’s slump included concern that China’s high-powered export economy could be slowing and a growing sense that Europe will be unable to reach a consensus on how to end the Greek debt crisis that has troubled markets for more than a year.

In the United States, a rash of sluggish indicators — especially related to the job market, manufacturing, consumer confidence and home sales — has economists worried about a stalled recovery. The nervousness was heightened this week when the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said the economic recovery remained uneven but did not say the Fed would continue to intervene. Investor enthusiasm has cooled with signals from the Fed that it will end its purchase of $600 billion dollars in Treasury securities at the end of June. (New York Times, Graham Bowley)

USD likely to gain strength in short term while commodities currencies will dip alongside with energy, agri/soft and metal commodities.

Friends ask of my opinion on MSM IPO: My take.......

I love commodity stocks but I think MSM is priced on the high side w/ EPS of 2008, 2009, 2010 at 17 sen, 33.8 sen and 33.1 sen respectively. Don't know their dividend policy.

Honestly doubt their ability to do the regional expansion/acqusition in the footsteps of R.Kuok's Wilmar/PPB. I prefer to watch the price action on the open market for a whole month and take a position if/when the picture is clearer.

HapSeng Cons. Kian Joo.

Today Hap Seng Cons. saw its share price surge about 7 % to close at RM 5.56 despite the KLCI losing abt 7 points to close at 1552... Sold part of HSC shares that was accumulated at RM 5.20 range. Let's see if HSC price action can be sustained up to end of week, where dividend of 20.5 sen will go ex.

Trade for month of May: sold all of BJ Corp and Benalec with little gain.
Will swap into my choice of dividend counters, which I think will mitigate/avoid major monetary losses, if/when market reverses.
Bought Kian Joo shares which I think has value inspite of the litigation issue between KJC and Can One. Looking purely at just dividend payout, it should be in the RM 2.60 range, alongside HS Plant. Buy at your own risk though :)) as market is poised for a correction... Happy investing..!