Plantation. THPlant. TDM.

This has got to be the worst week of the year with a heavy sell down of most stocks.
I've trimmed my holdings in IGB, Kfima, HSP, IJMP, IJM, IJM-wc. While all yielded profits, Kfima and HSP gave greatest gain of 27 and 20% respectively
Still like TDM and THP
THP share price surged recently from RM1.46 to RM2.28 and has since settled at RM1.94 Retracement FR 23.6% (RM2.09) FR 38.2% (RM1.97) FR 50% (RM1.87) FR 61.8% (RM1.78)
I think it will be well supported at RM1.87 level considering dividend DPS 8.5sen (8.5/187= 4.5%) due in April. PE is abt 14
TDM reverses from recent high of RM3.44 and is currently squatting at RM3.03
Retracement FR23.6% (RM3.10) FR38.2% (RM2.89) FR50% (RM2.73)
Should hold at spot price as DPS 13sen (13/303 =4.3%) due in April. PE is abt 9

Commodities down again.

China attempting to arrest inflation by tightening its credit liquidity again: raising bank's reserve ratio..
AUD/MYR pairing tumbles down to 3.00
Crude oil and Spot gold also slides to 1345. That's rotten news for commodity stocks.
Rebalancing my stocks portfolio these fews days. Swapping into more commodity/utility/property stocks with good dividend yield

Strategy for 2011

Investors may have to get used to a tight range or sideway trading after the recent rally. Making money in this climate isn't easy yet here's what some portfolio managers say:
1).. For near term, the strategy is to find entry points into a market that appears overbought but is likely to trend higher. Buy "on the dip" mentality has returned to stock investors and that will be the best strategy going forward.
2).. For medium term, be enthuastic at (growth) companies that meet earnings number from raised revenues and bottom line profits through production, rather than cost-cutting. These are companies that will consistently outperfom post earning-announcement.
3).. The risky business of timing a sector or stocks that has become unpopular on bad news or downgrade has become popular. Many traders are waiting for a bottom (fishing) to find a way in to have a 10 to 20 % upside.
4).. Finding pockets of strength will be the best strategy while buying across the broader market to outperform will be difficult.
While it's reasonable that market may reverses a little, many still see it as opportunity to get an entry/buy into the market ( CNBC 2011).

IRCB. Gadang. Puncak. Epic

IRCB (nta 0.31, Q/Q 0.3/ 0.14/ 0.07/ 1.2)
For every 2 held, you get (3 RI @ 20 sen + 2 FW )
2 x RM0.42 + 3 x RM 0.20 = RM 1.44 = 5 P + 2 W ( P=0.23,W=0.14 )
Buy the warrant when it retraces to 14 sen

Gadang ( nta 165, Q/Q 3/ 3.6/ 2.8/ 5.4 ) Fv 148
For every 3 held, you get 2 RI @ RM1.00 + 1 FW for every 4 shares held
3 x RM 0.78 + 2 x RM1.00 = RM 4.34 = 5 P + 0.75 W ( P=0.82, W=0.3)
Buy when it retraces to 72 sen level

Puncak Niaga (nta 360, Q/Q 1/ 9/ 7/ 9) Fv 260
Epic ( nta 212, Q/Q 5.7/ 5.8/ 8.8/ 7.9 ) Fv 283

Hap Seng Consolidated

HSC share price tumbles from recent of RM7.51 and is selling below its proposed private placement price of RM6.43
A lot of people who bought in recently will be greatly disappointed.
Looks like it is well supported at RM 6.31 level ( FR 23.6%)
TA traders will be watching FR levels: 38.2%= RM5.51, 50%= RM4.89, 61.8%=RM428
Went low of RM 6.07, 5pm closing price RM 6.16

Buying 1000 shares at RM 6.10 entitle you to 2000 bonus shares, 600 RI + W
So RM6,100 + (3/5)x RM1.46 = 3,600 P + 600 W
If W = 0, P = RM 1.938. If W = 0.4, P = RM 1.871

Hap Seng Cons. Bonus 2:1. Rights Issue + Warrant 1:5

Hap Seng Consolidation Bhd plans to raise about RM1.46 billion: the details:-
a). Private placement abt 124 m shares @ RM6.43 (10% to RM7.21)
b). Proposed bonus issue of 1.494 billion new shares: two for every one held
c). Thereafter rights issue of 448.31 m new shares @ RM1.46 with 448.31 m free detachable warrants: one RI + one W for every five shares held
An approximate guide: -----> If you buy/hold 10,000 shares x RM7.30 = RM73,000
then adjusted price after bonus issue: 30,000 shares x RM 2.433 = RM73,000
thereafter rights issue (30,000 shares x RM2.433) + (6,000 x RM1.46) = 36,000 x P + 6,000 W
If you assign W = RM0.40, then P = RM 2.038 or RM2.00 range

Commodities Sell Off

AUD down from 3.13 to 3.06
Gold spot price down from USD 1410 to 1365
Crude oil down to USD 89
Time to pause for a correction in commodities sector... Buying on price weakness...
(Don't worry, market won't crash at this point. Commodities index hasn't peak and has got more upside while Dollar Index must dip from 80 to below 76. When you see food prices, energy cost, hyper- inflation, streets protest and riots, then you know market collapse is imminent )
So commodity currency, commodity metal and commodity energy tumbles. But food- related commodity CPO price is holding its ground..

IOI. Sime. Plantations Rule Again. NPC

IOI and Sime Darby share prices surge, pulling the KLCI up...
Didn't I say it's about time that IOI should surge cos' it was trading at PE 17 cf. to KLK PE 22.
Anyway congrats to those who bought in...

There's a small plantation NPC Reso. w/ 7,335 ha mature palms in Sabah yielding 149, 574 mt ffb ending 2009. That's 20.4 mt of ffb/ ha, pretty productive.
Issued shares 120 m ( nta 212, Q/Q 8/ 8.4/ 5.6/ 4.4 ) Fv = RM2.50
Trading at RM2.45 w/ PE 9.3

TDM did indeed surge past IJMP in pursuit of HS Plant...

Those who are not comfortable buying into Cepat Wawa Plant can choose to buy into a Plantation Company who bought a 32 % stake in Cepat... Guess the name..?

Cepat Wawasan Plantation. Punting

A friend took a very very large position in Cepat W Plantation at Monday 5pm closing price of RM1.60 and asked me for my opinion. I didn't have the details at that time so I'll post on blog later.
And here it is: Cepat fully mature planted area is 7,700ha, issued shares 215.46m ( nta 169, Q/Q 2.7/ 2.5/ 1.3/ 4.1 ) Fv = RM1.06 Trading at RM1.60 w/ PE 15.1
I dont know how far it can go but here's some guide: RM1.70 @ PE 16, RM1.80 @ PE 17, RM2 @ PE 19
This posting will be deleted in 2 days..

Kwantas. Earnings recovery

Kwantas Plantation. Shares issued 311.68m ( nta RM3.09, Q/Q eps 4.7/ 1.3/ 5.3/ 2.5) Fv = RM1.38 Now trading in RM1.80 range w/ PE 13
A very productive plantation in Lahad Datu w/ total planted area of 15,772 ha.
Nov 2010 ffb= 37,956 mt. Annual projection= 36,000 x 12 = 432,000 mt or 27.3 mt of ffb/ha
Wow, that's higher than Sabah's average of 23 or national avg of 20. Will I take a position..?