REMNANT 888

Hap Seng. HS Plant. TDM. Kian Joo.QL

2012-02-12T17:52:00.000-08:00

Here's some of the stocks I still like despite the run-up in their prices ...
HSC (nta 147, Q/Q 4.8/4.4) Fv RM1.80
HSP (nta 228, Q/Q 7/ 7/ 9.5/ 8.3) Fv RM3.10
TDM (nta 350, Q/Q 14.9/12.7/ 13.9/ 21.8) Fv RM6.00
KJC (nta 202, Q/Q 5.3/ 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.4) Fv RM2.55
THP (nta 115, Q/Q 8.7/ 4.3/ 6.4/ 6.5) Fv RM2.50
Accumulate all above on weakness (buy THP only in RM2.20-2.30 range)
QL Reso (nta 092, Q/Q 8.4/ 3.9/ 3.3/ 4.6) Fv RM 2.10
QL fully valued, see no reason to accumulate ... Sell on rally ...

Telco Axiata, TM, Digi, Maxis

2012-02-07T02:08:00.000-08:00

Axiata (nta 228, Q/Qeps -4/ 6/ 8/ 7 sen) Fv 280. Now trading at RM4.75 @ pe 17, Dv 14 sen Dy 3%
TM (nta 177, Q/Q 11.2/ 4.6/ 3.6/ 8.4 sen) Fv 250. Now trading at RM 4.82 @ pe 19, Dv 23 sen Dy 4.8%
Digi (nta 018, Q/Q 4.3/ 3.1/ 3.8/ 5.1 sen) Fv 170. Now trading at RM 4.11 @ pe 24, Dv 17.5 sen Dy 4.26%
Maxis (nta 1.03, Q/Q 8.1/ 7.2/ 7.3/ 7.2 sen) Fv 300. Now trading at RM 5.70 @ pe 19, Dv 40 sen Dy 7%

Remarks: Axiata will cross RM 5 range once they start paying better dividends ...
TM looks pricely now with the run-up from RM4 level to current. RM5 level is what I considered fully valued (see my previous posting). I think there's no more capital repayment in the pipeline so investors will likely just get 9.8sen tax exempted every six months which will give a yield of 4 %. It's a sell if it ever matches Maxis share price ...
Digi has gone ballistic after the share split and announcement of latest Qeps of 5.1sen and dv of 6.5 sen. Based of trailing quaterly eps and dv payout, it's pe is the highest with Dy = (4.3+3.0+3.7+6.5)/ 411 = 4.26% low. Its next Qeps & dv will be interesting to look at. If it can sustain its Quarterly dv 6.5 sen, then Dy = (6.5 x 4/ 411) = 6.3%
Maxis hasn't really breakout from its RM5.20 to 5.70 range and I would recommend buying some purely for dividends. Hold a year or two and see if it could follow the footsteps of Digi (I held Digi for two years). Don't worry too much about downside if you buy at RM5.60- 5.70 cos' one year's dividend will bring your cost to RM5.20 (lower range).
Besides 7% dy is twice your FD rates. Even if you dont make any money first year on Maxis, your second year gain makes up for two years FD gain. Make sense ..?
Happy investing ya ...

A good workout to burn calories off CNY gains

2012-02-05T08:17:00.000-08:00

It's time to get stronger and fitter ... Healthy body, sharper minds ...

Palm oil down on strong ringgit, weak demand

2012-02-02T23:02:00.000-08:00

Malaysian crude palm oil extended losses on Friday on the back of a stronger ringgit currency squeezing refiner margins at a time when export trends point to slowing demand. The ringgit has strengthened around 4.6 percent against the dollar in 2012, making it more expensive for refiners to buy ringgit-priced feedstock to process. Many investors also chose to remain on the sidelines ahead of a long weekend holiday, limiting trade interest in the futures market that has lost almost 4 percent this year.

"The market's a bit quiet, it's stuck in a tight trading range of 50 to 70 ringgit," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. By the midday break, benchmark April palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged down 0.1 percent to 3,052 ringgit ($1,010) per tonne. Traded volumes stood at 10,187 lots of 25 tonnes each, thinner than the usual 12,500 lots, ahead of the long weekend holiday. On the demand side, Malaysian palm oil exports for January eased close to 12 percent and 13 percent, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance.

The decline was in line with market's expectation as top buyers including China, India and the European Union cut back orders. But traders also attributed the fall to the shift in orders to Indonesia, which slashed export taxes for processed oils. In response to the tax structure, Malaysia will reform its crude palm oil export duty policy and introduce a 1 billion ringgit fund, a Malaysian daily reported on Friday, citing unidentified sources.

Some traders see prospects of weaker demand for Malaysian palm oil as Brazilian harvest will start soon and major consumers will start looking at these offers. "The market will be competitive and we need not only to fight the Indonesia products but also beans from South American origin," said another trader based in Malaysia. Indonesia, meanwhile, is expected to export more crude palm oil to Pakistan as a result of a cut in import duties imposed by Islamabad following a trade pact signed on Friday, the Pakistani ambassador said. (Reuters SINGAPORE, Feb 3-Chew Yee Kiat)

Gold surges beyond 1750

2012-02-02T08:47:00.000-08:00

Gold seen trading at close to 1755 US dollar

US dollar plunges to 3.02 Malaysian Ringgit.
In other words, Ringgit has strengthen sharply against USD ...

S&P500 looking toppish

2012-01-27T01:45:00.000-08:00

A two-year chart of S&P500 ... Currently at 1318.
Can it break 1333 level, into the 1350 range..?

European markets rally on Fed low-rates pledge

2012-01-26T07:56:00.000-08:00

European stocks rallied Thursday and the euro hit a one-month dollar high after the Fed vowed to keep interest rates near zero for at least the next two years and investors waited on Greek debt talks.

The European single currency surged as high as $1.3177 in afternoon trading despite Greece's ongoing struggle to agree a writedown on its huge debts with its creditors, its highest level since December 21.
The euro later pulled back to stand at $1.3160 at 1400 GMT, still up from $1.3103 late in New York on Wednesday.

The US Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it expects interest rates to stay at "exceptionally low levels" at least until late 2014, extending its forecast from the previously stated mid-2013.
Traders also speculated that the central bank could also decide to implement another round of stimulus in the form of quantitative easing (QE).

"Yesterday's news from the Fed pushing out the low interest rate target to 2014 has delivered a modicum of support in early European trade, with the FTSE nudging its way higher as a result," said analyst Mike McCudden at online brokerage Interactive Investor.

"There's also a growing expectation that we'll see QE3 emerging from the Fed too, although with the market clearly supported by this line, any signs of delay could well initiate another round of broad-based selling.

"Eurozone debt concerns also remain very much front of mind and any hint of deterioration here could again see risk appetite plummet amongst investors."

Markets have been on a generally upward arc since the beginning of the year as the US economy shows tentative signs of recovery while officials in Europe strive to solve their debt crisis - AFP

2012-01-22T08:31:00.000-08:00

Wishing everybody ---> Gong Xi Fa Chai ...
Be happy, be healthy, be wealthy ...

Gold climbs as rising risk appetite lifts euro

2012-01-19T04:37:00.000-08:00

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Gold climbed for a fourth session on Thursday as the euro hit a two-week high versus the dollar and European stock markets rose on hopes the IMF may boost lending resources, with markets also awaiting the outcome of crucial talks between Greece and its creditors.

Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,661.99 an ounce at 1021 GMT, having earlier peaked at $1,669.75, its highest since Dec. 13. It has had a positive start to the year, up 6.4 percent since end December.

Gains in the euro have helped it this week. The single currency climbed to a two-week high against the dollar and the yen on Thursday, supported by better appetite for assets seen as higher risk.

"Rising risk appetite, a weak U.S. dollar and the breach of key resistances is giving gold the momentum to head towards the $1,700 an ounce level in the near term," said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services. Further resistance could be expected at $1,686, he added.

European shares hit their highest in nearly 5-1/2 months as traders awaited the outcome of talks between Greece and its private creditors. They meet for a second day of bargaining on a crucial bond swap deal on Thursday, with time running out for reaching a compromise needed to avoid a default.

Risk appetite was helped by news that the IMF is seeking to more than double its war chest by raising $600 billion in new resources to help countries deal with the fallout of the euro zone debt crisis.
(Reporting by Jan Harvey; Editing by Alison Birrane)

Euro hits 16-month dollar-low, European shares slide

2012-01-05T03:52:00.000-08:00

The euro slumped to a 16-month low against the dollar and ten-year trough versus the yen Thursday, while European stocks slid across the board, on resurgent eurozone debt strains triggered by Spain.
The European single currency struck $1.2831 at 1005 GMT -- the lowest level since September 2010. It also dived against the Japanese currency,to a ten-year low of 98.58 yen.

Spain's new economy minister on Thursday said his country's banks may face up to 50 billion euros ($65 billion) in bad loans, as he vowed to crack down on regional deficits in a new austerity drive.
Economy Minister Luis de Guindos' estimate of the banks' bad loans, provided in an interview with the Financial Times, was higher than many private forecasts. (AFP)

Japanese Yen surpasses Aussie to be best performer against the Ringgit

2012-01-04T08:22:00.001-08:00

One year chart of USD/MYR.
USD has gained about 3% from 3.05 to 3.14

One year chart of AUD/MYR.
AUD has gained more than 5% from 3.07 to 3.24

One year chart of JPY/MYR.
Just when everybody thinks Aussie is the best currency to hold, the Yen beats it hands down.
JPY has gained over 10% from 305 to 409

One year chart showing percentage gain of AUD/MYR compared to USD/MYR

One year chart showing percentage gain of JPY/MYR compared to AUD/MYR

Aussie higher against Ringgit. Gold recover.

2012-01-04T01:35:00.000-08:00

The Australian dollar has rallied for a third straight session, with positive economic data and a strong day on equity markets lifting the currency above 103 US cents and fresh highs against the euro.
The Australian dollar rose during overnight trading, after an encouraging US manufacturing report buoyed equity markets and lifted appetite for risk assets. Orders, production and employment were all up in a good sign that the US economy accelerated in the December quarter," ICAP senior economist Adam Carr said in a research note. (AAP)
Spot gold traded steady
on Wednesday, retaining most of the previous session's strong
gains on encouraging economic data from the United States and
Europe, and rising concerns on Iran also helped support
sentiment.
Bullion began the year by recouping all of last week's
losses to post its largest daily rise since Oct. 25
"Gold may not be a safe haven in financial turmoil, but it
does seem to function as a safe haven against real-world
geopolitical risks," said Nick Trevethan, Senior Commodity
Strategist at ANZ. (Reuters)

Australian Dollar Wedged between Several Trendlines

2011-12-30T00:45:00.000-08:00

Jamie Saettele, CMT

Ringgit down. Gold down

2011-12-27T18:04:00.000-08:00

AUD is gaining against the Ringgit, trading at 3.223

USD buys 3.172 Ringgit. USD may rise further as renewed demand for risk aversion and safe haven continues in the midst of Eurozone debt crisis fear (Italian bond auction).

Gold continues to slide, from USD 1620 to 1587 with a weeekly loss of 2 % .

Peace on earth and goodwill to all mankind

2011-12-24T04:23:00.000-08:00

Christmas - the time when the Love of God came upon mankind ...
Have a blessed Christmas, everybody ...

Religious authorities to discuss enforcement of law to prevent apostasy

2011-12-21T17:34:00.000-08:00

Religious authorities to discuss enforcement of law to prevent apostasy written by Bernama, on www.theedgemalaysia.com 21 Dec

I did a search and found some guidelines if you're thinking of inviting Muslim friends to your festive celebrations ...

Guidelines For Muslims Celebrating Religious Festivals Of Non-Muslims
ARCHIVES 2011
Wednesday, 19 January 2011 Super Admin
.
The 68th muzakarah of the National Fatwa Committee for Islamic Religious Affairs on April 12, 2005 discussed the Guidelines For Muslims Celebrating Religious Festivals Of Non-Muslims. The muzakarah has decided that:

In determining the non-Muslim celebrations that can be attended by Muslims, several main criteria should serve as guidelines so as not to contradict the teachings of Islam. The criteria are as follows:

1. The event is not accompanied by ceremonies that are against the Islamic faith (aqidah).
The meaning of “against the Islamic faith (aqidah)” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will lead to tarnishing the faith (aqidah) of Muslims.

For example:
i.to include religious symbols such as the cross, installing lights, candles, Christmas tree and so forth;
ii.to sing religious songs;
iii.to put any religious markings on the forehead, or other markings onto parts of the body;
iv.to deliver speech or gestures in the form of a praise to the non-Muslim religion;
v.to bow or conduct acts of honour to the religious ceremony of non-Muslims.

2. The event is not accompanied by acts against the Islamic law.
The meaning of “against the Islamic law” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will contradict the Islamic teachings practised by the Muslim community.

For example:
i.Wearing red costumes like Santa Claus or other garments that reflect religion;
ii.Serving intoxicating food or beverages and the likes;
iii.Having sounds or ornaments like church bells, Christmas tree, temple or breaking of coconuts;
iv.Having ceremonies with elements of gaming, worship, cult, superstitions and the likes.

3. The event is not accompanied by “acts that contradict with moral and cultural development of Muslim society” in this country.
The meaning of “acts that contradict with moral and cultural development of Muslim society” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will contradict the values and norms of the Muslim society of this country which adheres to the Islamic teachings based on Ahlus Sunnah Wal-Jamaah.

For example:
i.Mixing freely without any limit or manners;
ii.Wearing conspicuous clothing;
iii.Singing songs that contain lyrics of obscenity and worship;
iv.Organising programmes such as beauty pageants, cock fighting and such.

4. The event is not accompanied by acts that can “stir the sensitivity of Muslim community”.
The meaning of “stir the sensitivity of Muslim community” is a thing, act, word or situation which if conducted will offend the feelings of Muslims about their beliefs and practices.

For Example:
i.Speeches or songs in the form of non-Muslim religious propaganda;
ii.Speeches that insult the Muslims;
iii.Speeches that insult Islam;
iv.Presentations with the aim to ridicule the religious belief of Muslims.

5. The organisers and the public are asked to get the views of religious authorities before organising or attending celebrations of non-Muslims. -- JAKIM
.http://www.islam.gov.my/en/guidelines-muslims-celebrating-religious-festivals-non-muslims

Stocks rebound. A$ recovers

2011-12-20T18:39:00.000-08:00

Aussie dollar spiked overnight as global stocks rebound. Aussie buys 3.208 Ringgit

Ron Paul & Joe Rogan on the Tonight Show w/ Jay Leno

2011-12-19T09:09:00.000-08:00

Commodity currency A$ down

2011-12-18T21:19:00.000-08:00

Commodity currency Aussie dollar opens the week lower with a gap down and trading abt 3.15 Ringgit.
North Korea's Leader Kim JI dies at 69. South Korea Seoul shares slide ..

China stocks falling

2011-12-16T03:53:00.000-08:00

2 year chart of Shanghai Stocks CI seen struggling to keep afloat and breaking down to a two year low ... Short commodities firms that sell to China ...

New York: Ratings firm Fitch downgraded six major global banks on Thursday, citing increased challenges in the financial markets
Fitch lowered the long-term ratings on Bank of America and Goldman Sachs in the United States, British bank Barclays, French bank BNP Paribas, German bank Deutsche Bank and Swiss bank Credit Suisse.

Aussie and Gold plunges

2011-12-15T04:45:00.001-08:00

Aussie plunges against Ringgit at 3.168
Aud has lost close to 2 % of its value as investors turn to USD as the ultimate safe haven. The rise in USD is negative for stocks and commodities. Will the Fed step in with another easing ..?

Gold plunges and is trading at 1602 AuD
Xau has fallen more than 9 % of its value this month from 1749 as traders become increasingly anxious abt euro zone and funds liquidate their positions.

Complete ABC News Yahoo Republican Iowa Debate

2011-12-14T03:43:00.000-08:00

European stocks fall as Moody's slams EU summit outcome

2011-12-12T03:09:00.000-08:00

European shares fell on Monday as Moody's revealed it will review all EU credit ratings, blaming their failure to deliver "decisive policy measures" to fix the eurozone debt crisis.

In morning deals, London's FTSE 100 index slid 0.66 percent to 5,493.05 points, Frankfurt's DAX 30 dipped 1.42 percent to 5,902.08 points and the Paris CAC 40 lost 1.20 percent to 3,137.84.

The European single currency slipped to $1.3313 from $1.3384 late in New York on Friday.

"European markets awoke to a generally negative bias to risk assets this morning, with Moody's criticising the actions of eurozone leaders last week to the ongoing debt crisis as providing no new solutions," said Spreadex trader David White.

"Early trading today reflects this sentiment, as inflationary concerns are so far replaced with that of growth," he added.

Asian markets traded mixed on Monday as optimism over last week's European plan to introduce tougher fiscal rules to save the eurozone were weighed by lingering concerns leaders may not have done enough. Go here ... http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/European-stocks-fall-Moody-afpsg-2431483153.html?x=0

Gold slides as dollar strength weighs

2011-12-12T03:00:00.000-08:00

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Gold came under pressure on Monday, falling by as much as 2.0 percent after breaching a crucial level of support, as concern over the euro zone debt crisis encouraged investors to seek safety in the form of the U.S. dollar rather than bullion.

Spot gold was last down 1.7 percent on the day at $1,681.74 an ounce at 1007 GMT, having fallen to a low of $1,676.29 an ounce, its lowest since Nov. 25.

Traders and analysts said the break below $1,680 an ounce, the location of the uptrend that has been in place since the start of the year, accelerated the decline that was already in place given the near-0.8 percent rise in the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

Dollar strength tends to encourage non-U.S. investors to sell gold to lock in a higher profit in their own currencies. (Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Anthony Barker)

Stocks seen recovering. Aussie plunges ...

2011-12-08T22:54:00.000-08:00

Euro stocks tumble in the Friday morning but has since moved to positive territory.
5 days chart of Germany stocks index DAX

From Thursday Aussie plunges against the Ringgit from 3.24 to 3.18 level after noon Friday but gradually recovering to close 3.21

Legendary Jim Rogers' views

2011-12-06T21:01:00.000-08:00

In an interview on Breakot, Jim Rogers shares his positions ...
1). Long selected commodities and currencies
2). Short emerging market stocks, US technology stocks and European stocks.

His logic behind the portfolio: if economy turns up, Rogers win on commodities scarcity.
And if economy remains weak, his short position will more than offset his long positions.

Euro stocks struggle. Gold price slides.

2011-12-06T03:11:00.000-08:00

German stocks index attempting to recover from the morning's negative territory

Gold Xau seen retreating to intraday low of 1675 Aussie $ before recovering to 1680 AUD (=1720 USD) ...

For sentiment on HK properties go to http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/Investors-signal-sell-HK-rsg-1173084526.html?x=0

Stocks rally. Aussie up

2011-12-05T07:49:00.000-08:00

Aud/Usd at 1.0297
Stock prices rose and borrowing costs for European governments dropped sharply in response to the changes proposed on Monday by French President Nikolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. But some of the optimism faded late in the day when Standard and Poor's threatened to cut its credit ratings on 15 eurozone countries, including the likes of Germany, France and Austria which have been considered Europe's safest government debt issuers.

Aud/Myr trending upwards to 3.23
but may reverses as Aussie is set to face RBA cut

17 Ways Rich People and Poor People Think Differently

2011-12-04T01:50:00.000-08:00

Aussie. USD. Gold.

2011-12-03T03:55:00.000-08:00

Aud/Myr spiked on Wednesday touching 3.26 but has since dropped to close 3.196 as the week ends with a weekly gain of 2 % ... Gold Xau/Aud closed lower as it requires less of the stronger Aussie to buy gold.

Aud/Usd closed higher 1.021 with a weekly gain of almost 4 %
while Gold Xau/Usd also traded higher at 1746 with 2 % gain
implying Aud/Usd is a better trade of the two.

Usd/Myr tumbles down about 2 %
while Xau/Myr spike in mid-week but closed with little change at weekend. You would have gain little to trade gold in MYR.
The best way to trade currencies now: change MYR->AUD then pair against USD or EUR (although I trade EUR/USD) as AUD is a better base currency than EUR or USD.

Euro News.

2011-12-02T02:17:00.000-08:00

Germany's Angela Merkel wants tighter fiscal integration in Euro zone with tougher budget and dismissed possibility of massive money printing by ECB.
Issuance of common euro zone bonds as a crisis solution would breach German constitution and is thus not possible. Instead, she would like ECB to continue buying bonds of troubled euro countries as bridging solution until budget controls takes place.

ECB President Mario Draghi will defend the euro and take more aggressive action to help fight the euro zone debt crisis if governments adopt a new fiscal compact.
For full story by Stephen Brown and Catherine Bremer of Reuters, go to http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-opens-door-action-sarkozy-075401417.html

Meanwhile, supporting the sentiment in gold, South Korea's central bank bought 15 tonnes of gold in November, following purchases of 25 tonnes in June and July, as central banks around the world, especially in emerging economies, have aggressively bought bullion over the past few months. "It's not a surprise, as gold seems to be the only thing central banks can buy to diversify their reserves as economic problems seem to spread around the world," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers

Prepare for riots if Euro collapse

2011-12-01T02:17:00.000-08:00

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.

Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.

Full story at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

Stocks surge for 2nd day. USD down. Aussie soars

2011-11-30T07:49:00.000-08:00

Eurozone stocks surge for second day on news of coordinated efforts by Federal Reserve and others central banks to ease the threat against the currrency Euro. Commodity currency Aud continue to soars to 3.27 against Myr.

Aud/Myr posted weekly gain of more than 5 % while
Aud/Sgd gained more than 3 %
Similarly Aud/USD gained abt 6 %

Although gold in USD actually soars 4 % to 1747 as US dollar weakens ...,
But in AuD, gold actually continue to retreat 2 % to 1696 level as it now requires less A$ to buy the precious metal

Stocks surge on positive news. Aussie surges

2011-11-28T04:44:00.000-08:00

Aud/Myr surge from 3.10 to 3.18, registering a gain of 2.6 % on positive news of Euro rescue and also business confidence in Germany.
Meanwhile gold Xau/Aud retreated from 1740 to 1725 on stronger A$.
Aussie is buying 99.2 US cents and will inch towards parity US$.

Farage: What gives you the right to dictate to the Greek and Italian peo...

2011-11-27T08:58:00.000-08:00

Gold. Aussie.

2011-11-25T06:53:00.000-08:00

Gold (Xau) finding support at 1670 USD (or AUD 1730) and inching up ...

Aussie looking to slide to 96 US cents ..?
Or reversing up..?

Commodity Currencies Underperformed in 2011. What Happened?

2011-11-24T19:11:00.000-08:00

Ilya Spivak, On Friday 25 November 2011, 10:33

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars – the so-called “commodity bloc” – have been the worst performers against their US namesake among the majors so far this year.

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars – the so-called “commodity bloc” – have been the worst performers against their US namesake among the majors so far this year. The outcome reflects the group’s sensitivity to global economic growth expectations and investors’ risk appetite at a time when the post-2008 crisis faces its most considerable headwinds yet, with output expansion increasingly expected to slow worldwide while the Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis threatens to unleash another credit disaster onto financial markets.

Source: Bloomberg

Drivers of the Commodity Currencies

The fundamental forces behind the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars are clearly revealed in the currencies’ intimate correlation with the S&P 500 benchmark stock index over recent years. An understanding this relationship illustrates precisely why the commodity currencies were so strong on the way out of the Great Recession previously and whey they’ve lost their appeal so dramatically this year.

What does the S&P 500 represent?

Put simply, it is a reflection of the markets’ collective expectations of future earnings for the world’s largest companies. Looking past the minutiae of individual firms and evaluating the aggregate, those expectations are naturally a function of what investors believe about the pace of global economic growth. Naturally enough, if growth is expected to be robust, earnings are likely to rise as companies find more opportunities to do business as well as greater demand for their goods and services. Needless to say, the reverse is likewise the case.

Taking this logic one step further, it seems reasonable enough to say that growth expectations will probably be quite telling of the markets’ general appetite for risk. If aggregate earnings are expected to rise overall, investors will be comparatively more sanguine about taking additional risks for a chance at greater returns than they would if the global economy was in dire straits and uncertainties loomed large. Once again, the same logic applies in the opposite scenario as well. To this end, the S&P 500 is both a real-time proxy for the financial markets’ collective economic growth outlook as well as a barometer for their risk tolerance.

Source: Bloomberg

Why are commodity currencies aligned with the S&P 500?

All three economies look to exports of raw materials to the world’s top-two economic engines as their core source of expansion. In the case of Australia and New Zealand, that is China. The East Asian giant has a healthy appetite for Australian mining goods, most notably coal and iron ore, as well as New Zealand foodstuffs like meat and dairy. Meanwhile, Canada has a similar relationship with the United States. Indeed, close to 80 percent of Canadian exports are headed for US markets. Crude oil is an oft-cited focal point in this relationship, but other goods such as lumber are also important.

Needless to say, any given country’s economic growth outlook is an important determinant of its currency’s exchange rate. In the simplest of terms, strong performance puts upward pressure on the price of goods across the spectrum as growing demand chases after finite supply, driving inflation. Central banks seeking to cap price growth raise interest rates to encourage saving and discourage consumption in a bid to cool growth. Rising interest rates represent an increase in the return to be had for holding deposits in a given currency, driving investment demand and leading to appreciation.

If economic performance in Australia, Canada and New Zealand is determined by demand from the US and China, the long-term trajectory of their currencies are a function of that very same thing. Because the US and China happen to be the world’s first- and second-largest economies, the same can be said of the world as a whole, bringing us back to the S&P 500. All told, we can see that at their core, the Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian Dollars are no less a function of the very same global growth expectations and related risk appetite trends that drive the benchmark stock index.

Headwinds Facing Global Economic Growth, Risk Appetite

Having established what drives the commodity currencies, we turn to what undermined them as well as risk appetite at large in 2011. Broadly speaking, this brings us to two discrete themes: the slowdown in global economic growth and the lingering Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis.

The Global Recovery is Faltering

Turning first to global economic growth, it is clear that the markets have been faced with a deteriorating outlook for worldwide performance as all three of the world’s leading growth engines – the US, China and the Euro Zone – turn increasingly sluggish. The downturn in China is self-induced, while those in the West reflect the fading effects of aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts.

Source: Bloomberg

The administration in Beijing has struggled to contain inflation, with the annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index hitting a three-year high by mid-year and hovering uncomfortably above the 6 percent threshold throughout the third quarter. Inflation poses a major problem for China’s rulers, who know all too well that the price of failing to secure affordable access to basic necessities for the country’s enormous population is often mass upheaval and regime change. As such, authorities moved to slow the economy and curb price growth with a total of 11 interest rate hikes so far this year, at times acting on the 1-year lending and/or deposit rates as well as banks’ reserve requirements. The results have been dramatic: the annual GDP growth rate slowed to the weakest in two years by the third quarter while the Manufacturing PMI gauge of factory-sector growth that approximates trends in the overall economy dropped to the weakest since February 2009 in October.

In the US, much of the damage occurred in the first half of the year, with GDP adding a paltry 0.4 percent in the first quarter followed by a still sub-par 1.3 percent in the three months through June. Meanwhile, a Citigroup metric tracking US economic data surprises sank to the lowest since late 2008 by mid-June. Much of this weakness can be traced to the disappearance of the boost from the government’s aggressive stimulus spending, but ripple effects from such events as the Tohoku earthquake in Japan that – for example – disrupted parts shipments to US auto manufacturers are likewise to blame. Performance seems to be improving in the second half of the year, but consensus annual GDP growth expectations compounded in a survey from Bloomberg suggest the economy will add 1.8 percent from the previous year in 2011, a marked slowdown from the 3 percent recorded in 2010.

Finally turning to Europe, the fading impact of stimulus measures and a lurch toward austerity on the fiscal side of the equation were compounded by added pressure from the European Central Bank in the monetary policy space. Mirroring its often-criticized decision to raise interest rates in the middle of 2008 as the global credit crunch was on the cusp of being unleashed onto financial markets, the ECB opted to react to rising headline with a cumulative 50bps in tightening between April and July. The results have been dramatic: economists’ 2011 economic growth expectations (as tracked by Bloomberg) topped out in June and began to trend firmly lower in August, now calling for the currency bloc’s GDP to add just 1.6 percent this year. The outlook for 2012 is even more ominous, with a paltry 0.7 percent increase set to underperform the rest of the G10 by a wide margin.

Euro Zone Debt Crisis Rekindles Meltdown Fears

Amplifying already substantial headwinds facing risk appetite is the return to the spotlight of Euro Zone sovereign debt crisis. The inability of some countries in the currency bloc to keep up with their debt obligations seemingly vanished from the foreground in 2010 after Greece and Ireland received €110 billion and €85 billion bailouts in May and November, respectively. This year seemed to start on a positive note when Eurozone finance ministers set up a permanent €500 billion bailout facility called the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), but stress returned as Portugal admitted it was underwater and asked for a rescue in April. It received a €78 billion lifeline in May, but another lull in market jitters was not to be.

In June, Eurozone finance threatened to withhold an aid payment to Greece unless the country agrees to commit to harsher austerity measures, sparking fears that a default within the currency bloc was imminent. Though the Greek Parliament approved further budget cuts and received the aid while Eurozone officials cobbled together a second €109 billion aid package by July aimed to fund Athens as well as prevent contagion elsewhere in the region, the situation began to spiral out of control. By August, yields on Spanish and Italian bonds began to soar as investors demanded a hefty premium to lend to the next set of Euro member states thought to come under sovereign pressure. The ECB reluctantly agreed to begin buying the two countries’ bonds in a bid to cap borrowing costs, but the effort proved too anemic to have a game-changing impact. A so-called “comprehensive” solution hashed out at a summit in October – proposing to write down 50 percent of privately-held Greek debt, lever up the existing €440 billion bailout fund (the European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF) to €1 trillion, and require Eurozone banks to adhere to a 9 percent reserve requirement – failed to reassure investors. Likewise in November, short-lived sigh of relief following a change of governments in Greece and Italy is already running out of stream.

The debt crisis presents a two-pronged problem. On one hand, it amplifies already considerable headwinds facing Euro Zone economic growth. Soaring borrowing costs amid fears of a default within the currency bloc stymie growth as individuals and businesses find it more expensive to spend and invest. In turn, slower growth reduces regional governments’ tax intake, making it that much harder to reduce deficits, stoking already considerable sovereign solvency fears and producing a vicious cycle. On the other, it threatens to unleash another market-wide selloff and global credit crunch, plunging worldwide finance at large into another existential crisis just three years after the 2008 debacle.

Source: Bloomberg

Needless to say, the key threat is that of a default in a large country like Italy or Spain – the third- and fourth-largest economies in the Eurozone, respectively – where the problem is simply too big to be addressed with a Greece-style bailout. Indeed, Italy is the world’s third-largest bond market, meaning the impact of its default would prove far more detrimental than the now infamous collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers that triggered what would become the Great Recession. Countless banks, funds and other institutions would suddenly find their holdings of Italian bonds to be absolutely worthless and be forced to book sharp losses.--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

What's everyone eyeing these days..?

2011-11-24T07:26:00.001-08:00

Here's a 5 year time chart of HSBC (0005. HK) .
Shares price hovering at HK$ 57

What's everyone buying these days..?

2011-11-23T22:56:00.001-08:00

BAC share prices on a 5 year chart.
Price at US$ 5.14

China scraps orders for up to 300,000 T of palm oil

2011-11-23T04:50:00.000-08:00

BEIJING/KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 23 (Reuters) - China has cancelled orders for up to 300,000 tonnes of refined palm oil over the past month as some traders had over-booked cargoes and domestic prices remain lower than that of imports, Asian traders said on Wednesday.

The scrapped orders were for cargoes scheduled for delivery in the first quarter of 2012 when China celebrates Lunar New Year festival in late January with a week long public holiday -- a peak demand season, they said.

"It has been going on for some time, a month or so. There are really no profit margins for the Chinese importers now and they are getting out while they can. There is still time to buy later on," said a Malaysian trader dealing with China.

Benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped to a near two-week low of 3,128 Malaysian ringgit per tonne after the news, which signals demand could slow.

News of the cancellations come as China's factory sector shrank the most in 32 months in November, reviving worries the world's No.2 palm oil buyer may be skidding towards an economic hard landing that would weaken commodity demand.

Two Chinese traders said a major state-owned trading house had cancelled orders for some 100,000 tonnes of refined palm oil last week.

"It does not make sense to ship back palm oil as domestic prices are about 800 yuan to 1,000 yuan lower than imported price. It is better to wash out the cargo if you have not booked the vessel," said one of the traders.

But the trader added that imports in January to March next year would still be big at 500,000 tonnes each month. This year in the first quarter, China imported over 1 million tonnes, customs data show.

Malaysian traders said demand for palm oil will be strong as fears that a brewing La Nina weather could worsen the monsoon rains and limit production, spurring China to order fast to avoid another upswing in prices.

"It really depends on Dalian market prices because the prices have come under pressure from the global economic sentiment and the fact that China has been selling its state reserves to bring down prices," said another Malaysian trader.

"But with running down the reserves, there is an opportunity for demand to rise as China has to restock," the trader added. (Editing by Himani Sarkar)

Latexx. KJC. MAS.

2011-11-21T21:13:00.000-08:00

Glovemaker Latexx (nta 123, Q/Q 8/ 5/ 6/ 8/ 5 sen) Latest Q eps drops from 8 to 5 sen. Fv = RM2.00, now trading at RM 1.80
KJC (nta 202, Q/Q 7/ 5/ 7/ 7/ 6 sen) Fv = RM 2.40, now trading at RM 1.90
MAS (nta 069, Q/Q 7/ 7/ -7/ -16/ -14 sen) Continues to be in the red...

Expects more downside in the next quarterly earning..
And price slides...

Aussie testing trendline

2011-11-21T17:48:00.000-08:00

Aussie nearing a downward sloping trendline.
A drop through would indicate an accelerated weakness towards 9750, 9620 and eventually the October low of 9390.

Resistance is 9910, 9960 and 10110... By Jamie Saettele, CMT

Aussie continues down trend.

2011-11-21T02:37:00.000-08:00

Commodities currency, Aussie buying 98.9 US cents.

Looks like trending down towards 0.95 level against the US dollar.

IOI Corp Q earning dives

2011-11-20T19:31:00.000-08:00

IOI (nta 181, Q/Q eps 8/ 8/ 10/ 8/ latest 4 sen). Latest quaterly eps dives to half of preceeding. Assume Fv = RM3.20, IOI shares price is now trading at RM5 w/PE of 16.
IOI is not as attractively valued as previously thought.

AUD. XAU slides

2011-11-19T08:25:00.000-08:00

Aussie tumbles weekly from 3.225 to 3.165 against Ringgit, posting a weekly loss of approximately 2 %.
It closes the week with almost 3 % loss against the US dollar.

Gold plunges from weekly high of USD 1,795 to close at 1,725, with a loss of 4 % .
Xau/ Aud was just down with a 1 % loss from AUD 1740 to 1720/oz.

Resolving R.Sawit

2011-11-13T07:50:00.000-08:00

Someone asked if R. Sawit is a good buy ..?
This is what I got in early 2011 before they embark on the acquisition trail and recent issuing of rights shares with bonus shares...
R. Sawit (nta 61 sen, 3.8 sen)
CPO yield/ ha = 160,ooo mt x 0.2145 /16,423 ha = 34, 320/16,423 = 2.09 mt/ ha which is below the industry standard of 4 mt/ ha..
Earning Sensitivity = 34,320 mt/ 156,600,000 shares = 0.219 mt/ 1000 shares
Every RM 100/mt increase in CPO price => + 2.19 sen EPS accretive

From R Sawit's current website on 14th Nov.:
Total plantation land 91,793 ha
FY2010, ffb = 235,111 mt and CPO = 0.2145 x 235,111 = 50,431 mt
Assume planted acreage in Dali's post of 49 300 ha,
CPO yield/ ha = 50431/49300 = 1.02 mt/ha which indicates either the oil palm trees are very young or the additional landbanks are seated on peat soil.

Issued shares = 1,230,000,000
Let's derive our Earning Sensitivity for R.Sawit;
Annual CPO yield FY 2010/ 1000 shares = 50,451 mt/ 1,230,000 = 0.04 mt / 1000 shares
Every RM 100/ mt increase in CPO, then annualised EPS => + 0.4 sen accretive.
Try compare this earning sensitivity with THP (1.9 sen), IJMP (1.5 sen), HSP (1.7 sen), Cepat (1.2 sen), NPC (2.4 sen), Kwantas (2.9 sen), TSH (4.3 sen), Glenealy (5.4 sen)

Alternative Investment. Gold. Platinum. Silver.

2011-11-09T20:32:00.000-08:00

Here's a chart of gold on a 2 year frame, with daily prices currently staying above 30 and 200 day MA ...
You can pull similar 5, 8 and 10 year charts and they exhibit similar trends ...
Good entry point 1,550 ...
Platinum spot price (Xpt/Usd) tends to be volatile as shown recently on this 2 year frame chart, presenting a good opportunity to take a position at recent low of USD 1450 ...
Pull out a 5 year frame chart and you'll can see Pt peaks at USD2270

Silver plunged from recent high of USD 48/oz and is hovering at 34 level ...
Buying on dips below USD30 seems like a good tactic ...

Latexx. Supermax. Kossan. Hartalega

2011-11-08T19:21:00.001-08:00

Latexx (nta 120, Q/Q 8/ 5/ 6/ 8 sen) Fv = RM2.70 if we assume PER 10. Now trading at RM 1.95 on PE of 7
Supermax (nta 221, Q/Q 11/ 10/ 7/ 7/ 9 sen ) Fv = RM3.30 on PER 10. Now trading at RM3.79 with PE 12, which is relatively expensive.
Kossan (nta 150, Q/Q 9/ 9/ 7/ 7 sen) Fv = RM3.20 on PER 10. Now trading at RM2.90 below PE 10
Hartalega (nta 152, Q/Q 13/ 13/ 14/ 15/ 13 sen) Fv = RM5.50 on PER 10. Now trading at RM5.50

Gold advances as Aussie eases

2011-11-07T21:59:00.000-08:00

Here's a chart of Xau/Aud (Gold/Aussie) on a 5 days time frame showing gold rallying from 1625 to AUD 1738.
That's a weekly gain of almost 7 %...

The Other Side of Apple - Must see for anyone who has an iPod or iPhone!

2011-11-06T20:15:00.000-08:00

AUD/MYR eases

2011-11-02T07:57:00.000-07:00

Aussie eases from a peak of 3.32 on 27th Oct to hit a intraday low of 3.21 on 1st Nov 2011 on doubt of the solution to Euro debt crisis and cutting of 25 basis point to RBA cash rate.
Since then it has shown some recovery, buying Ringgit 3.25
SGD/MYR also recovers from plunge of 2.438 low yesterday to trade at 2.46 ................ ..............XAU/AUD trades at 1675

MYR weakens against SGD, AUD, NZD

2011-10-24T05:28:00.000-07:00

Here's a 6 months time frame chart showing SGD gradually appreciating against MYR, from a low of 2.40 to approximately 2.50
Ringgit also weakens against AUD and NZD: AUD now buys 3.26 MYR and NZD buys 2.52 MYR.

Buy this metal: more precious than gold

2011-10-18T10:55:00.000-07:00

This is absurd: platinum is now trading at USD 1533 spot price and it is now lower/ cheaper than gold at USD 1656. Ratio of platinum/gold is approximately 0.93 although platinum is much rare a commodity than gold.. If I remember correctly, it should be trading at ratio of 1.5 to 1.8 range...
I've always wanted to get my hand on a physical platinum 1 oz coin when it was trading at USD 800 - 1000 range two/three years ago but unfortunately there weren't any legitimate seller in the Malaysian metal market. So if you're in Australia, USA or Europe, this is simply a must-grab physical item..!

Trading Options. AUD/MYR

2011-10-17T08:57:00.000-07:00

AUD/MYR chart on a time frame of 6 months, with the AUD trading range within 3.02 to 3.25

Aussie today climbed to a intraday high of 3.22 in the morning but has since slid to 3.17 against the Ringgit in the evening as news of German Finance Minister dampened hopes that the impending summit would produce a breakthrough in Euro debt crisis. AUD/USD dropped from 1.04 to 1.02

AUD continues to soar

2011-10-12T14:14:00.000-07:00

Aussie continues its winning streak to USD 1.015 on Wednesday as the Euro bailout fund looks more likely. Meanwhile release of the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on 2oth Sept showed officials were still gloomy about US economy, which were negative on US dollar.
AUD soars to 3.18 Ringgit (1 month chart) and GBP/MYR at 4.93
Indonesia cuts its cash rate while Singapore Monetary Authority had said it will slow the appreciation of its dollar. Will Malaysia cuts its cash rate and loosen its monetary policy too..?

CRB Index (12 mths chart) is recovering to 311 but still below 50Day Moving Average.

AUD recovers strongly

2011-10-07T06:45:00.000-07:00

AUD recovers strongly after ECB announced that it would continue to assists lenders to prevent a credit crunch, easing the pressure in the Euro debt zone. Further recovery of AUD will depend on US job figures, due tonight Sydney time and also the Australian labour force set of data due coming Thursday...
AUD/MYR seen trading at 3.10 level
GBP/MYR stayed at 4.91 level

AUD continues to fall

2011-10-04T03:17:00.000-07:00

AUD was on a downward path all Tuesday and fell to its lowest due to concerns about global growth. It plunges to 94.6 US cents after Central bank RBA said it decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 % but was open to lowering the cash rate if inflation eases.

AUD/MYR plunges to low of 3.0229
GBP/MYR dip to a low of 4.91 from 4.99 (within five hours).

Trading Options. Aud/Myr. Xau/Aud. Gbp/Myr

2011-10-03T08:41:00.000-07:00

AUD/MYR hovering at 3.09 from a recent rebound of 3.06
AUD may revisit recent low of 3.06 if selling of commodities continue within the week so it's best to stay at the sideline or buy the option at strike of 3.00 if possible...
If you're already holding AUD, then consider doing an XAU/AUD option swap at strike/exercise price of 1600 or 1500 level as XAU/AUD is currently trading at 1700.

Meanwhile GBP/MYR has soared to high of 5.00 from below 4.80 within four weeks..

Fair value changes with perception volatility

2011-10-02T06:27:00.000-07:00

Fair value and PER of share prices of companies changes very quickly in differing market conditions so I would not utilise it as the only tool for buying a company stock. Nevertheless it's still pretty good indicator of whether the company shares you hold in your portfolio has become overpriced wrt. its earnings, market outlook/ projections and regional peers..

Meanwhile a look at some of the companies mentioned by friends....
QL Reso ( nta 92, Q/Q 3.9/ 3.3 sen ). It's overpriced, trading at RM 2.60 and would be one of the stocks I'll go short on. Fair value RM 1.60 to 1.80
Supermax (nta 212, Q/Q 11/10/ 7/ 6 sen). Trading close to PE 11 at RM 2.80, rebounding from RM 2.30 range last week. Worth a nibble below RM 2, screaming buy at RM 1.20 w/ PE 5
HS Plant (nta 230, QQ 5/ 7/ 7/ 9 sen ) Trading at RM 2.40, it recovers everytime it plunges to RM 2 level... This is one company worth looking at when share price plunges below RM 2. Whack hard at RM 1.50 range...

Capitulation

2011-10-02T06:13:00.000-07:00

It sure doesn't make much sense to look at fundamentals of a company for great buy at the moment cos' when market tanks every companies share price gives way.. We're staring at the scenario where market hits the panic button at every negative news and investors/ traders find every excuse to dump shares to preserve their capital... What to do in times like this...? Google the term CAPITULATION and do your research ; it's gonna be worth the time...

Average investors cashing out

2011-09-28T06:29:00.000-07:00

In a matter of 10 days, two friends CPC and ALE liquidated their stock holdings and held on to sweet old cash. It was simply sentiment-driven, you know, the momentum driven action of "sell and ask question" later. There was a huge element of fear of losing profits (or losing more), greed of sell now/ buy at better prices later and some crazed feeling in between all these.

I asked a couple of people at the investment/brokerage houses and most said they were reducing their exposure to the equities in a substantial manner. Most were comfortable taking their money off the market. With all the volatility spanning the global financial market and uncertainty of direction of the local bourse, I guess it was simply too stressful on the brain and taxing on anyone's physique to stock pick and remain calm.

What's the best thing to do now..? That's the question everyone asking.. buy precious metals or bonds or stay in cash..? Well, do something that will assure you a good night rest and sleep.. by this I mean, lean towards cash position till month ends..

In your waiting for the dust to settle, you may opt to dabble in currency option swap which can potentially earns you weekly gain, annualized at 6 to 11 %... Happy investing.

Horrible days are here to stay

2011-09-25T22:18:00.000-07:00

What a sell-down in the stock market of blue chip companies...! Huge losses were registered as share prices plunged within days. Below are some of the common favourites with their losses over a week:
Maybank from RM 8.70 to 7.60 ( down 13 % ). Public Bk from 13.00 to 11.70 ( - 10 % ). GenM from 3.50 to 3.00 (- 14 %). IOI from 4.70 to 4.30 ( - 9% ). MPHB from 2.50 to 2.20 ( - 12 % ). Boustead fr 5.30 to 4.60 ( -13 % ).

My current interest is in the plantation sector so I'm watching HS Plant currently at 2.30, TH Plant at 1.90, TDM at 2.70
It would be nice to nibble in HSP at 2.00, THP at 1.50, TDM 2.00

Spot gold at USD52/gm (1,617/oz) or AUD53/gm (1,648/oz) or RM165/gm (5,131/oz)

World market plunges again

2011-09-22T10:56:00.000-07:00

AUD/MYR plunges to multi-weeks low of 3.07 with more than 3 % loss from 3.16 within 24 hours in the midst of sell-off in Aussie and in stocks. The AUD also dipped below parity with USD, falling to as low as 97.2 US cents.

KLCI suffered another blow on heavy selling across the board with the index closing at 1388 ( - 31 points, - 2.2 %): there were 801 losers and 85 gainers. I'm watching the plantation sector to buy later at steep discounts... Nothing else really interest me, well maybe I'll day-trade Boustead, Maybank, GenM, QL, MPHB, IJML, MahSing, etc if opportunities avail...

With FTSE, DAX and CAC registering losses of approx 5 %, I guess tomorrow will be a red ocean day again... Will you be courageous enough to trade in times like these..?

Glut dampens market value and rental of condos

2011-09-17T02:25:00.000-07:00

SINCE the high-end condominium market took a beating following the global financial crisis in 2008, their values have been left pretty much battered even today. Investors who got into the market around the peak must still be quite disheartened by the market's lethargy.

The big supply coming onstream has also been a dampener on property values and the rental market of these residences. There are now many condominiums in need of tenants and the net rental yields are in the range of 3% to 5%, depending on the location.

But despite this, the speculative fervour in the upper-medium to high-end landed residential sector has not abated. There are signs that it is spilling onto the latest craze small sized, and more affordable, commercial cum residential accommodation known as SoHo's, and service apartments

The fact that even analysts are concerned and have downgraded the property sector pretty much indicates the party is coming to an end and it is time to be cautious. UOB Kay Hian Research has downgraded its grading for the property sector to “market weight” from “overweight” citing that the property valuation cycle has peaked.

A global double-dip recession, coupled with the European debt problems, would certainly have spillover effects on the domestic economy, including the property sector. If the world economy is hit by a recession, the property market will not be spared either. Deputy news editor Angie Ng, The Star

KLCI under intense pressure again

2011-09-15T05:10:00.000-07:00

Most of the guys I asked today said that they're going to sell, sell, sell despite holding onto defensive blue-chip companies stocks. This seeem to be the prevalent sentiment that's striking terror in the hearts of even those who a fortnight ago were not even agitated by the Euro crisis.
So it seems like even the brave hearted are now striken by fear of losing their gains.

For some who are considering into buying into Tenaga shares (nta 532, QQ 9/ 16/ 14/ -8 sen), I say, be cautious until there is some glimpse that electricity tariff gets another hike. With the cost of fuel (coal and gas) on the high side, this will erode the financial bottom line further.

Instead why not buy TM shares at below RM 4..? Its earning (QQ 12/ 11/ 5/ 4 sen ) is still not that fabulous but there's the growth story of the HSBB (high speed broadband) which is partially paid/subsidised by the Gov't.. With a guaranteed minimum of 13 sen (9.8 sen net) dividend paid out every six months, this is one to have as your core investment.
Punt and trade on this one below RM 4 if ever it plunges... Happy investing...

Average Investor's Allocation

2011-09-13T18:42:00.000-07:00

CPC invest in the stocks market since March 2009.
In June 2011 he holds RM 289 k in stocks + RM 133 k cash (which includes profit + dividends of RM 102 k). Todate he has sold and reduced his stocks to RM 234 k. His total gain incl. dividends is RM 117 k (ROI = 117/320 = 36 %). Approx. ratio stocks 2 : 1 cash

ALE holds RM 160 k + RM 80 cash (which includes profit + dividends of RM 42 k).
Recent selling saw the stocks holding at RM 152 k. Total profit incl. dividends slid to RM 39 k (ROI = 39/198 = 20 %). Approx. ratio stocks 3 : 1 cash

In comparison, my return incl. dividends = 25 % cf. to 33 % in June. Ratio stocks 2 : 1 cash

AUD under pressure

2011-09-11T20:12:00.000-07:00

Mon 12th Sept... Aussie fell to weeks low of 3.14 agst. Ringgit on fresh worries on euro zone debt crisis that prompted a sell-down in riskier assets and buying of Treasuries..
Strangely, Australian shares slid more than 3 % though the commodities-based economy is more aligned towards China rather than the US or Euro market.. Is the market factoring a slow down in the growth of the Chinese economy as China tightens credit to rein inflation..?

Want to learn how to trade the market..?

2011-09-08T20:43:00.000-07:00

For those who want to learn the basic of Technical Analysis, here's a blogger who can offer you some help. Go visit http://www.cpteh.blogspot.com/. Fees are reasonably charged by dividing RM150/ hour over the number of person and spread over weeks of guidance.. I personally reco this guy..!

Don't be fooled by others who claim to be be able to teach you in hours.. I know of someone who paid RM 2,000 to a forex trainer to tutor his daughter for a two hours lesson just on basic of technical analysis alone and it doesn't even include an understanding of forex. For crying out loud, how does one comprehend TA in merely two hours of exposure, let alone the girl is just 20 years old.. I get furious when I hear scam like this, capitalizing on the unprepared gullible public. C'mon you don't impose thousands in two hours. Who the heck you think you're, one of the gambling gods..?

It doesn't take much time to get yourself acquainted with Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis, given the massive information available on forex trading websites, blogsites, youtubes and trader's webpage via the internet, mostly free of charge.
The only time you should consider parting with your hard earned cash, is when you actually take up a time/session with an experienced investor/ trader or trainer/tutor who preferably has minimum 3 years of exposure in the financial market (3 years is fair period to ride thru market peak and trough).

DiGi to return RM509m to shareholders

2011-09-08T08:38:00.000-07:00

DiGi.Com Bhd, Malaysia’s third- largest mobile phone operator, plans to return cash to shareholders including Norway’s Telanor ASA after receiving a RM509 million (US$170 million) payment from a unit.

The company also said investors will receive 10 shares for each one they currently own in a proposed split to make the stock more affordable and boost liquidity, according to stock exchange filings today.

DiGi, 49-percent owned by Telenor will make the payment to shareholders by the first half of 2012 as it depreciates more than 1 billion ringgit of equipment and upgrades its network.

The Fall of Pseudo Safe Havens

2011-09-07T07:06:00.000-07:00

Gary Gibson, Minneapolis, Minnesota (of Whiskey & Gunpowder)...
The Swiss franc as a safe haven? Not so much anymore...
The Swiss National Bank believes that the Swiss franc is massively overvalued. And they're simply not going to tolerate it. In fact, they are going to fight this overvaluation aggressively. They mean to keep the franc to under 1.20 euros and they are "prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities" to do it.

But why is the Swiss National Bank so upset about a strong currency? Well, just think about the poor export market. People the world over may love the Swiss franc and want to buy it...but a strong Swiss franc means relatively expensive Swiss goods. People in other countries would be less keen on buying those expensive goods. So the export market could suffer. Tourism could take a hit too.

Why wait for messy market when you can settle for quick, neat political solutions that will guarantee great pain down the road? Want to bolster exports and make unemployment your neighbor's problem? No problem! Just devalue your currency...
Bolstering the export market has often been trotted out as one of the very best reasons for having a "flexible" currency in the first place. But it's a zero sum game with only temporary advantages.

Country A devalues and makes its exports cheaper and more attractive, essentially exporting unemployment as well... Country B, however, doesn't need to stand for that because it too has a flexible currency that it then devalues. And so and so on, countries chip away at the value of their currencies for short-term gain. In a world of unbacked currencies, this beggaring of neighbors and buggering of savers can go on till everyone is at the bottom.

These days the franc is often included in the same sentence as gold when pundits talk about "safe havens." We've never really agreed with that. No matter how often the Swiss central bank acts kinda cool, we never forget that it is in fact a central bank. The soundness of the currency it issues has the same guarantees as other untrustworthy unbacked currencies...like the U.S. or Zimbabwe dollar.
Buying the Swiss franc as a safe haven makes little more sense than buying U.S. debt as a safe haven. Investors are still under the delusion that they can trust U.S. treasuries, but they may be starting to understand that the Swiss franc's stability is as reliable as a politician's promise.

Of course gold is still the ultimate safe haven, something that the world is slowly remembering as yet another "safe haven" falls. Even though gold is no longer the bargain it was just a few years ago, it's still looking like just about the best bet.

Below Simon Black examines the Swiss franc devaluation, gold, and what you can do right now to make these new circumstances work for your bottom line.

Whiskey & Gunpowder
by Simon Black
September 6, 2011
Cairo, Egypt With Immediate Effect The Swiss National Bank has just announced that it is putting a ceiling on the franc's appreciation against the euro... effectively abandoning its economic sovereignty and putting its future in the hands of woefully corrupt and incompetent bureaucrats. On the news, the franc fell off a cliff, dropping almost 10% INSTANTLY. Gold priced in Swiss francs jumped from 1497 to 1620 per troy ounce, all in about 45 seconds. Precious metals are now all alone as the only forms of sound money that are truly safe havens.

Just 6-weeks ago on July 27th, in a letter entitled"Should I buy gold at its all-time high", I wrote: "Even stronger currencies like the Swiss franc have limits to their appreciation. At some point, the Swiss National Bank will impose capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency...

[Y]ou'll probably feel like a sucker for not buying gold at $1600 when you still had the chance." Since then gold has soared roughly 20%, and as of this morning, the SNB has imposed capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency. This is just the beginning. The Swiss government has basically told the world that they will print as much money as it takes, and buy up as much crap sovereign debt as they can, to competitively devalue the currency This essentially puts Switzerland in the same sinking boat as Italy, Greece, and Portugal... with one key difference: Switzerland has 0% interest rates. In other words, you can now borrow in francs at 0% and buy government-backed euro garbage yielding 5%, 10%, 30%.... with absolutely no downside currency risk.

Here's a practical example you can do -- opn a FOREX trading account and borrow Swiss francs at 0.5%. Buy the EURCHF cross and simply hold euro cash, paying 0.65%. At 100:1 leverage (quite common in FOREX trading), that translates into a 15% return simply for HOLDING CASH with no downside currency risk. It's free money, courtesy of the Swiss National Bank. I'm just waiting for the next wave of margin hikes. Needless to say, this is utter madness and will absolutely hasten the end game for Europe.

A few other points to make: 1) Big Swiss exporters like Novartis and Nestle are dancing a jig right now as this will surely boost their sales in the short-term. Also, banks in Switzerland and Austria who had heavy exposure to Eastern Europe are breathing a sigh of relief right now. You see, Swiss interest rates have traditionally been lower than in Europe's emerging economies.

For example, many Hungarians took out mortgage loans in Swiss francs because the borrowing rate was so much cheaper. Once the Swiss franc began to rise, however, borrowers had a difficult time paying back the loan; suddenly their mortgage payment and balance were much higher than before, and default rates soared. Banks in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland who wrote most of the loans were sitting on huge potential losses... and this destruction to the financial system has been mitigated thanks to today's move. I have to imagine this had some influence in the decision.

2) For all the talk of a pullback in gold, this is only further reason for a rise in precious metals. It's true that nothing goes up (or down) in a straight line, but given that the world just lost nearly its last remaining safe haven currency, there are few other asset classes to turn to.

3) Markets are not functioning properly. Competitive devaluation means that governments are all striving to out-print each other... Europe is printing as much as they can to bail out the PIIGS, Switzerland just signed up to join then, Japan and China are not far behind, and QE3 is set to launch soon in America. With so much money sloshing around the financial system, there is absolutely no sense of value anymore; people cannot invest with confidence given all the massive bureaucratic intervention

4) In the Swiss National Bank's brief statement, they said"With immediate effect, [the SNB] will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities." The three key words here are 'WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT'. This is just another example of a government making instant changes that pose dramatic risk over people's lives and livelihoods........ ...... Regards, Simon Black

Currency devaluation is all the rage. All the cool currencies are doing it. So today Switzerland moves from the boring, sober lifestyle of its buddy gold to hang out with the cool, hard-partying currencies from the U.S. and Zimbabwe. And so...yet another currency falls to the false promise of currency devaluation..

This move by the Swiss gives investors one less inflation hedge to use in their arsenal. Albeit the Swiss Franc was still paper money and therefore inherently a poor choice, it, like the one-eyed man in the land of the blind, was better than most. But not better than gold. Gold doesn't represent anyone else's liability. It can't be conjured up by competitively devaluing, bankrupt governments. Gold continues to shine even as we type this morning it's up $15 and change. So what do you do to protect yourself from the unending line of governments willing to debauch their own currency.?..... .....

Regards, Gary Gibson
Managing editor, Whiskey & Gunpowder
ggibsonagora@gmail.com

European stocks fall 5.0% on fear of recession, debt risks.TM Chart.

2011-09-05T09:08:00.000-07:00

European stocks plunged by about 5.0 percent in mid afternoon trading on Monday, hit by acute tension over the risk of recession in leading economies and over eurozone debt.

Bonds issued by Greece and Italy fell, and the cost of insuring against default by Italy and France, as indicated by the market for credit default swap (CDS) instruments, rose sharply. The euro fell below 1.41 dollars. The price of gold jumped back above $1,900 an ounce on demand for a safe haven investment.

The head of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet warned of an immediate and imperative need for enactment of a second debt rescue for Greece, and for tightened discipline in the management of eurozone economies. He also spoke of an eventual "confederal" disciplined management of eurozone national finances. And the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde repeated her warning that banks in Europe need extra capital to withstand any contagion from the eurozone debt crisis.

The move against stocks was exacerbated by a decision by US authorities to take legal action against 17 leading international banks over trading in securitised mortgage trading at the heart of the 2008 financial crisis, traders said. Bank shares fell heavily in Europe.

German stocks were down by nearly 6.0 percent, while in London, the FTSE index fell by 3.06 percent to 5,129.97 points. The Frankfurt stock market was showing a fall of 5.55 percent from the closing level on Friday to 5,230.84 points on the DAX index with Deutsche Bank shares down 9.59 percent. In Paris the CAC 40 index was down 5.10 percent to 2,987.96 points and in Milan, the FTSE Mib index was showing a fall of 5.30 percent to 14,263 points.

The US legal moves are aimed at recouping billions of dollars lost in the financial crisis. "The US decided to drop a bombshell on the banking sector ahead of their extended weekend by announcing a $200-billion (141-billion-euro) lawsuit across the whole industry for the miss selling of mortgage backed assets, the dreaded subprime loans," said Simon Denham, head of London-based trading group Capital Spreads.

US firms targeted in the suits included Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, General Electric, Ally Financial and First Horizon. The foreign banks were Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Nomura, Royal Bank of Scotland and Societe Generale.

Traders also continued to digest weak US data from late last week. The jobs data for August were the worst since September 2010, when the economy shed more than twice the number of jobs it created. The pace of job growth remains far below the numbers needed to reduce the high unemployment rate.

Telekom Malaysia Chart

KLCI Chart

2011-09-04T22:23:00.000-07:00

The local index must hold above the crucial pivot low support at 1,423.47 on August 9, which is reinforced by 1,420, the 50 per cent Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of uptrend from the 1,243 low of May 27 2010 to the 1,597.08 record high of July 11, to prevent a deeper correction to 1,378, the 61.8 per cent FR, with next significant retracement support at 1,327, representing the 76.4 per cent FR.

Immediate upside hurdles stays at 1,490 and 1,510, the respective 38.2 per cent FR and 50 per cent FR levels of the sell-off from the 1,597.08 record high to the recent extreme low of 1,423.47, with the formidable hurdle staying at 1,530, the 61.8 per cent FR matching the 200-day moving average.
Read more: KL bourse brace for renewed downside pressure http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/marketoutlooksept5/Article/index_html#ixzz1X3M6JSye

Banks downgrade. Hedging. Telco.Gold.

2011-09-03T01:55:00.000-07:00

Despite the pretty good earnings of the banking sector in Malaysia, there is a general downgrade on the banking sector by most analysts. While I'm still upbeat on some of the bank stocks that pays pretty good dividends but I can't help noticed the selling pressure on CIMB which has influenced share prices of other banks. So I have conceded to the trend of Mr. Market and reduce my holding of banking stocks.

It's darn tough to trade in this treacherous condition but here's what I think you can do if you're experiencing some monetary losses in your current position and looking to recoup a loss (by hedging) and/or are looking for a potentially rewarding trade, on a SHORT TERM strategy or a LONG TERM one.

1.)... Look for stocks that're trending upwards and buy on dips... The only sector that's on my list is the telecom sector.
You may even have your own idea of sectors and stocks that're on the uptrend. You may check with your financial consultant, brokers for some recommendations but the decision to buy remains YOURS, and yours alone.. If in doubt, DON'T buy. Coz you cannot lose money further if you don't buy in..

You may buy stocks that're tanking, pray for a technical rebound. That's your prerogatives but never my liking (I've learned by paying my dues/ for my lesson to Mr. Market ). It make more sense to buy blue-chip stocks that're rising in share prices than dumping more money in losing stocks.

The idea is to hedge yr current losing trades by taking a position in several potential winning trades. And if your winning trades equalise your losing trades in monetary terms, it's time to quit the market... The idea is not to make big gains but minimise your losses and quit the market. Repeat --- Quit when trades equalise...!

2.)... Exit the stock market and invest LONG in precious metals IF you seriously believe we're in for a crash/collapse in the financial market.

I'm not the smartest gold investor around but this is what you can consider. Set up a precious metals fund equivalent to 10 - 20 % of your portfolio. Start by taking a small position, say 10% of your intended precious metals fund, at around this time, with prices hovering around USD 1,800/oz. Buy with another 40% of yr precious metals fund if gold price dips to USD 1,500 within one month and another 50% if it plunges to USD 1,200/oz within three months..

Patiently hold yr investment to 4 - 5 years and dream on for a USD 3,600/oz by 2015...? I guess it would be fair for me to take a position and post my gold investment gain/loss on a three month basis up to 2015. It would be interesting to prove the "gold bugs" story...
Forgotten are my minute gold investment in physical Gold Maple Leaf 1 oz in 2009 (?) when price of gold was at its highest hovering around RM3,300 and my 1 oz silver American Eagle was purchased at USD 16..
Happy investing...

2011-08-29T09:54:00.000-07:00

Maxis.Hap Seng.Hunz Pty..Gold.

2011-08-24T08:10:00.000-07:00

Maxis (nta 107, QQ 7/ 8/ 8/ 7/ 7.3 sen) Fv = RM3, now trading at RM5.40, declares tax exempted dv 8 sen going ex. 18th Sept
Hap Seng latest Qeps 4.8 sen. Before the corporate exercise it was (nta 471, Q/Q 23/ 8/ 18/ 14sen ) Fv= RM1.60, now trading at RM1.30, declares a tax exepted dv 3.9 sen, going ex 9th Sept.
Hunza Pty (nta 244, QQ 7.4/ 18/ 5.3/ 5.9/ 4.2 sen) Fv= RM1.60... now trading at RM1.50, propose a tax exempted dv 5.6 sen
Gold chart suggest buying at USD 1,500/oz level. I think USD 1,550 is a good entry point. I'll be taking a position at USD 1,600/oz.
In Malaysian Ringgit, that's (1,600 x 2.98)/31.1 = RM 153/ gram
Two pre-requisites: 1).. Buy only with the cash that you won't be needing for 5 years.
2).. Buy when you have worked into a deep-seated belief that gold will rise to RM300/gm. You must be willing to "buy and forget" this asset; it's for the long haul.

People who are considering buying into units of 3 or 4 years capital guaranteed funds should fare better in this gold investment. Capital guranteed fund promise you at best 30% but hardly delivers. Gold in physical or "paper" does indeed surpasses that figure. Please dont buy into unit trust portfolio (gold miners/gold fund/ precious metal); that's a different ball game as the price of unit may not correlate exactly with price of physical gold.

Buy "paper gold" (Public Bk, Maybank, CIMB passbook) if you intend to sell within next year or so. Buy physical if you intend to hold 10, 30 years, 50 years, 100 years.? Physical gold will be most valuable when the world currencies collapse.. I joke with my friends that 20 pcs of gold coin will buy a bungalow in turbulent times like that...
Maybank will phase out the trading of Bank Negara minted Kijang Gold Coin soon and I suggest you guys go grab at least one. It may have numismatic value later.
So far our central bank Bank Negara hasn't stopped the Kelantan and Perak Govt from minting/monetising their own gold coins and using it as a monetary currency in designated public/ private enterprise. Buy some of these too as it could be rare items in the future..

Earnings. HSP.TM.AirAsia.MAS.Axiata.CIMB.Maybank.

2011-08-22T02:44:00.000-07:00

HS Plant (nta 230, QQ 4.5/ 5/ 7/ 7/ 9.4 sen) Fv= RM2.80, now trading at RM2.70 Declares tax exempted 10 sen dv, going ex. 8th Sept
TM (nta 186, QQ 3.5/ 12/ 11/ 4.6/ 3.6 sen) Fv= RM1.70, now trading at RM4.10. Declares tax exempted 9.8 sen dv, going ex. 8th Sept.
Air Asia (nta 141, QQ 7/ 12/ 11/ 6/ 4 sen) Fv = RM2.40, now trading at RM3.50
MAS (nta 84, QQ 16/ 7/ 7/ -7/ -16 sen) Quaterly earning still in red and sinking
Axiata (nta 225, QQ 7/ 8/ -4/ 6/ 8 sen) Fv = RM3, now trading at RM 5 . Propose 4 sen dv
CIMB (nta 331, 12/ 13/ 12/ 12/ 13 sen) Fv = RM5, now trading at RM 7.80. Announces dv 12 sen, going ex. 8th Sept
Maybank (nta 420, QQ 13/ 14/ 16/ 15/ 15 sen) Fv= RM6, now trading at RM 8.60, propose dv 32 sen

Adopt and Save a life

2011-08-19T19:35:00.000-07:00

If it is within your ability and capacity to adopt a pet, please do so. Having a pet is actually very therapeutic for both adults (in our stressful working environment) and kids (bonding and playthingee) too. I mean, would you rather have the kids mucking about with the dogs than have them glue to the addictive Playstn, computer games and FB...?

I was fortunate to be surrounded by pets in my early years in life. It does makes one more caring and less fearful of furry animals. I really think kids should be exposed in their pre-teens for it does brings out their compassion to the concern/needs of other, their giving of self, their responsibilty to tend to another living being. Most dogs are friendly in nature, fierce in loyalty & responsive if treated well.

For more details, visit http://www.spca.org.my/

Earnings. MahSing.KianJoo. Leader.

2011-08-16T03:55:00.000-07:00

Mah Sing (nta 117, Q/Q 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 5/ 5.2 sen) Fv= RM 1.80, now trading at RM2.45
Kian Joo (nta 201, Q/Q 6/ 7/ 5/ 7/ 6.9 sen) Fv = RM2.50, now trading at RM 1.95 announces a dv of 6.25 (3.75 + 2.5) sen going ex. on 2nd Sept. Accumulate on weakness.
Leader (nta 136, Q/Q 3.4/ 3.8/ 1.8/ 2.8/ 3.5 sen latest) Fv = RM 1.15, now trading at 79 sen.

Did a internet search on availability of silver coins/wafer/bars in Malaysia and this is what I found........ .... ST Silver Ventures Johor: 017- 615 3835, 03- 2178 4275, 012- 7129 558 (Ms Shadhana), 012- 225 6664 (Mr Yow Chuan). Email admin@silverswirler.com
Silver for Malaysia.com: Sms/call 012- 225 8679 Email silverbullion@gmail.com
In Singapore: http://www.silverbullion.com.sg/ and http://www.royalsmithbullion.com/

40th Anniversary of the Dollar’s Divorce from Gold

2011-08-15T11:28:00.000-07:00

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Today-Marks-40th-Anniversary-wscheats-1950132810.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

Generous Taiko

2011-08-14T21:45:00.000-07:00

Heard this piece of news and I thought, "wow, such a big fella (tai lo) with bigness of mind, heart and character."

A man purportedly an unlicensed money lender (aka. Ah Long) went to Citibank and asked the fund manager to invest a redundant sum of RM 100,000 in whatever financial instrument she thinks will bring him gain within a year. Accordingly the girl invested the amount into some unit trust fund and yielded a RM 3,000 profit.

Upon monetising his investment, he gave a gratuity of RM 500 to the girl who was bewildered by that generous act. Isn't this cool..? Now this is one guy who really moves money...

Penang. Oversupply of New Launches.?

2011-08-14T11:03:00.000-07:00

There are concerns that Penang island cannot absorb the high number of projects. The planned development of RM29.6bil worth of properties on Penang island in the next 10 to 15 years has raised concerns over the capacity of the market to absorb them.

The properties are planned for 1,121.56 acres which include reclaimed land and strategic locations on the island.

Eastern & Oriental Bhd is reclaiming 740 acres for the second phase of the Seri Tanjung Pinang project in Tanjung Tokong to develop two islands for mixed development projects, which will have an estimated gross development value (GDV) of RM12bil.

Read here... http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/8/13/business/9285090&sec=business

KLCI bleeds 70 points

2011-08-08T19:52:00.000-07:00

809- another day of bleeding for KLCI following DJIA & S&P plunge of approx 6 %.
I guess many will sell their portfolio into huge losses while some will make their entry to take a position. I think at the end of the day or week, many will make their entry after the massive selling has subsided...

Did a day trade on A.T.M.= Axiata, Telekom, Maxis.
Queue for Maybank and other blue chip counters.

Red Ocean. KLCI dives > 40 points

2011-08-08T07:42:00.000-07:00

8th Aug. 2011. Some took the opportunity to buy into market when the index plunges sharply in the mid morning. Losers lead gainers by more than 1,060 to 45 at one point and there were so many counters registering huge loses to pick from. I guess you could call this "Red Ocean" strategic fishing, ha ha. You could be rewarded if you timed the market well.

Well, I'm not so smart: I only gain from the intra-day trades on TM and GenM.
Accumulated some other blue-chip counters. Wish I had bought into Maxis but then again, there were so many to pick at.. Next round then.....
Laggard stocks I like : Bjtoto, KJC, Maxis, Tambun

Depravity of the Fallen Kind

2011-08-06T04:41:00.000-07:00

Dog Abuse

2011-08-06T04:17:00.000-07:00

KLK Value Homes

2011-08-02T20:35:00.000-07:00

Saw this ad in the The Edge. KLK Bandar Seri Coalfields 2 Sty SD with land size 40' x 80' and generous built-up 3,066 sf c/w. 4+1 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms.
Priced from RM 688k, this works out to be merely RM 224 psf based on built-up.

The 2 sty link house sells even cheaper from approx. RM 360k for land size 22' x 75' and built-up from 1,960 sf. That's approx. RM 180 psf on built-up. Cheap and good, eh..?

TM sells stake in Axiata for RM468m

2011-07-27T18:58:00.000-07:00

Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) has placed out 92.36 million shares in Axiata Group Bhd at RM5.07 per unit. The placement has raised gross proceeds of RM468.3 million.

TM said its unit TM ESOS Management Sdn Bhd yesterday completed the bookbuilding exercise of Axiata shares. The transaction price of RM5.07 was a 1.2% discount over yesterday’s closing of RM5.13.

TM said the shares were placed out to third-party foreign institutional investors. Following the placement, it is left with 807 shares which the telco will dispose of on the open market. Goldman Sachs was the sole book runner, according to Reuters

Affordable Housing

2011-07-19T07:35:00.000-07:00

Thought of the day:
How will the recent initiatives (PRIMA) by the Federal Gov't to provide more affordable medium cost homes and the land provision by Penang State Gov't to build affordable dwelling in the mainland impact the housing industry and property developer in Selangor and Penang...?
Positive or negative for property sector..?
Beneficiary: Building materials sector, construction sector.

Stocks that are sliding.

2011-07-18T02:07:00.000-07:00

Just random selection of stocks that have slumped from recent high:

In the 15 % range: IOI RM6.00 to RM5.20, SPSetia 4.40 to 3.80, MahSing 2.80 to 2.35, Gamuda 4.20 to 3.60, AnnJoo 3.30 to 2.80
In the 20 % range: HSP RM3.60 to RM2.70, UEMLand 3.20 to 2.60, Lion 2.20 to 1.70, MaSteel 1.50 to 1.20, Adventa 2.60 to 1.95, KPS 1.40 to 1.08, Tebrau 90 sen to 70 sen. .
In the 30 % range: Kinstel RM1.07 to 68sen, KHSB 46 sen to 29 sen.
In the 40 % range: Muhibbah RM 1.90 to RM 1.16 (74 sen loss..!)
In the 50 % range: IRCB 33 sen to 17 sen

Mah Sing (nta 116, Q/Q 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 5 sen) Fv w/ PER 10 => RM 1.60
SP Setia (nta 178, Q/Q 8.6/ 7.4/ 6.1/ 5.5 sen) Fv w/ PER 10 => RM 2.70

Double your investment

2011-07-17T20:54:00.000-07:00

At a breakfast table, the husband was bemoaning his poor record in stock market. In turn the wife was telling him about the latest diet- one of many she tried and failed too.

Looking up from the stock market newspaper, he said " you know something, honey: you're the only investment I've made that has doubled." (Beverly Dilliplane, compiled by Ng Ho Peng in his book "Laugh till you drop").

Hap Seng.

2011-07-14T21:54:00.000-07:00

Hap Seng closed at RM 5.31 on Thurs 14th July. Adjusted price on Fri 15th = (RM 5,310 + RM1.05 x 600)/ 3600 shares = RM 1.65/ share

A friend KH asked if he should continue buying Hap Seng shares. Consider he has collected shares from 6.10 to 5.30 with average RM5.70, with earlier dividend of 20.5 sen. His base cost of 1 share is now 5.50 just 20 sen from closing price 5.31 on Thursday 14th July.
His adjusted share price = (5700 + 1.05x600)/ 3600 = RM 1.76
At current market value of RM 1.65, his loss is 6.7 %
Hap Seng's dividend this Aug should narrow the loss.

Here's a guide in percentage of mkt share price slump from RM1.76: At 10% (RM1.60), 15% (RM1.53), 20% (RM1.46)

Logitec M325

2011-07-13T21:32:00.000-07:00

Buy this mouse; it's one investment you won't regret.
Comes with a unifying wireless receiver that's even better than its predecessor M315. The scroll wheel glide with hyper speed thru web page and you can also flip the browser pages backward and forward by tilting the wheel left/right. Very comfortable to grip. Around RM 70 with 3 years warranty, it's better than the 1 year warranty cheap mouse of RM 20 with messy cable.

God Save Malaysia,,!

2011-07-09T02:51:00.000-07:00

GenM. TM.

2011-07-08T22:21:00.000-07:00

GenM surges from RM 3.50 range finishing at 3.86, making a gain of 10 % within two weeks.
TM gains 4 % from 3.85 to 4.00 in the same period of time or 8 % since mid May at RM 3.70 ex. after it paid out 29 sen cap. repay + 13 sen dv. Three months back, most analysts were marking TM target price at RM3.50 to 3.90 after pricing in capital repayment of 29 sen + dividend of 13 sen. In my opinion, the analyst were shortsighted to account for the potential upside in telco sector. RM 5 is more like TP in the med-long term with more news of Axiata, Maxis collaborating with TM. Remember Axiata was in the RM 3.50 range when I call a buy in the regional telco player.
You can read my thoughts on TM in previous posting and why it should form the core of one's portfolio. Recent reading revealed that TM will embarked on a RM 11 billion HSBB, out of which RM 3 billion will come from Gov't.. Nice, very nice...

Is TM too expensive..? Not so if based on pure dividend alone, dv yield = 26/400 = 6.5 %

Is it the right time to take a position..? Yes, though my timing has always been lousy. But you can allocate 3 triggers; buy at RM4.00, RM3.70 and RM3.40

What if the stock market reverses..? Say you buy at RM4 and price plunges to RM3.70, here's what happen if you hold the shares. For 6 months, dividend payout min. 13 sen, + share price 370 = 383, you lose 17 sen (4.3 %). Hold for 1 year, dv payout is 26 sen, + share price 370 = 386, you lose 4 sen (1 %). Every 3 year gives you min 26 sen x 3 = 78 sen so should your share price drop to RM 3.22 in 3 years holding, you don't lose your capital.

Will it ever plunge to RM3.22..? It may and I'll be loading up with twice the existing holding in TM. Recap TM did a placement to local/foreign investor last year at RM3.25 and share price never touch down that level.

I invested for two friends CSM and EC, buying TM last year at RM 3.39 and RM 3.43. Gain in one year: dividend 13 sen, capital repayment 29 sen + dv 13 sen and capital appreciation 57 sen at current share price of RM4. Total = 112/343 = 32.6, say 33 %. Fabulous return in a year for a defensive laggard.

There are others who have gain much, much more when they bought in at RM 3.00 (390 - 90sen cap repay) two and half years ago. Todate they would have gain dv 13 sen, dividend 13 sen x 2, cap repay 29 sen + dv 13 sen and capital appreciation of 100 sen at current share price of RM4. Total gain = 181/30 = 60 %. To them, I take my hats off ..!

For beginners to stock mart, start loading up on TM in your stock portfolio up to max of 50% of your intended investment. Wait for share price to surge to 10-15% capital gain and a payout of first dividend of 13 sen. This will act as a hedge to protect your loss in other stock picks.
Happy investing ya...

Hap Seng Rights Issue @ RM1.05

2011-07-05T06:05:00.000-07:00

Hap Seng said on 5th July that it has fixed the issue price of the rights shares at RM1.05 with the exercise price of the new free detachable warrants at RM1.65

HSC said the issue price for the rights share at RM1.05 was a discount of about 35.98% to the theoretical ex-all price of its shares of RM1.64 calculated based on the five-day volume weighted average price, up to and including July 4, of RM5.26.

The rights Issue will entail the issuance of 364.39 million rights shares and 364.39 million warrants.

Hap Seng Cons. ( nta 473, Q/Qeps 23/ 8/ 18/ 14 ) Trading at RM5.30 (pe 530/620= 8.5)

GBP plunges

2011-07-04T08:23:00.000-07:00

GBP plunges to 1.1044 against the EURO and 4.8289 against the ringgit MYR. You can take a long position on GBP/Eur or do a Dual Currency GBP/Myr

How to trade safely in this market

2011-07-03T03:33:00.000-07:00

Many blue chips counter are trading in a narrow band so it seems like we'll have to trade between these and be contented with a few percentage of gain within a week or two.
GenM and Maybank seems to be trading in the ranges of RM 3.5 to 3.7 and 8.7 to 9.0 respectively for the moment and if well traded, could yield a potential of 3 %. Not much but 3 % within a fortnight is much better than the same in a yearly FD. I think there's limited downside for these two counters. TM is another safe bet ranging from RM 3.85

There's many other counters you can trade for short term gain. I'm pretty sure you have your favourites to scalp for a profit. Just ensure you pick counters you're familiar with its price action, having good fundamentals (decent earnings) and newsflow.
I think Latexx and Supermax deserve a relook with commodities prices trending down. The only snag is the income that's priced in USD ( 1: 3 MYR ). Happy trading ..!

Commodities prices slip

2011-06-23T07:30:00.000-07:00

Price of CPO dropped from RM3,200 to RMRM3,150 losing abt RM50.
Commodity currency AUD slipped from 3.22 to 3.176
Precious metal gold plunges from USD 1,544 to USD 1,521
Commodities stock price will tend to drift lower. For those who are keen to get back into our plantation stocks, wait for CPO price to hit RM3,000 mark, AUD at 3.08 and gold below 1,500
I'm waiting to accumulate HSP at 2.40 - 2.50, THP at 1.80 - 1.90, TDM 2.70 - 2.80 as I have completely sold of all my plantation stocks when CPO prices retreated from near peak of RM3,800.

Average Investor's Allocation

2011-06-20T02:52:00.000-07:00

Since March 2009, CCP trade the stock market weekly and gradually built up his initial investment capital to a peak of RM 320k.
Early this year, he reduced his stocks holdings to current value of RM 289k with cash in hand & dividend of RM 133k... Total stocks & cash = 289 + 133 = 422k.
Gain = 422 - 320 = 102k ( 32 % ), all in hand.
Note: his cash position 133k = 41% of initial capital (320k) or 32% (total 422k)... Ratio cash 1: 2 stocks approx.

In 2010, ALE started trading the market fortnightly with capital of RM 198k. She has also trimmed her positions in the market and is holding RM 80k cash and RM 160k in stocks, total RM 240k Gain = ( 240-198 ) /198 = 21 % or RM 42k, (near half of her 80k cash in hand)
Note: her cash position = 40% of initial capital (198k) or 33% of total (240k).. Ratio cash 1 : 2 stocks

In comparison, my return incl. dividends = 33 %, current cash holding = 26% of initial capital.. Ratio cash 1: 4 stocks.. Plan to reduce my cash holding by investing into dividend stocks...

People of God, are you happy.?

2011-06-19T02:21:00.000-07:00

Many people of God are simply not happy.
Their happiness is based on externals, stuff like personal academics/self achievement, relationship or finances: on how much they have attained over the weeks/months in sales figure, how many numerical they have in their bank accounts, how much property in their possession or acqusition, how their relationship with their spouse/ kids fare, how a certain person or group of people have treated/behave towards them. While all these has a place of its own, it's sad to watch how the people of God loses their inner joy over all these.

I've met another group of unhappy people who live their lives centred solely on a set of laws and commandments that's derived from their sacred book. They can remember so well the text inside out, many who can quote verses so meticulously, many who can "proof-text" their doctrine.
But if you're not happy, you're just living a rigourous/tiring religious life of do and don't and that sucks. A wise man said something to this effect, " A person can be in the known religiously but spiritually undiscerned." Religion and spirituality are two differently things.
The Good News (Gospel) is about how one can meet God, the Author of the sacred book, enjoy God being with us and live life happily, much less to do with other stuff.... And unless you discover the God of the sacred, you're just living life on the peripheral (by the book).

You must be happy because of the simplistic fact that
1). Immanuel (God is with us). Was once seperated from God but now reconciled.
2). Identity changed to being child of God. To those who believe, God gave you the rights to become a child of God.
3). God gives you a Holy Spirit to empower you and gives you the ability to live a life as a happy child of God. In the words of a child, "spirits and demons jumps out and Holy Spirit jumps in."